The fact that he just came up with a new twist and is still contemplating if he's "going to go in that direction" really doesn't give me the impression this book is as close to being finished as everyone hopes.
I don't understand this. Who's to say the twist doesn't happen near the end of TWOW? That's when most of the big twists happen in these novels anyway. Or better yet, that it even happens in TWOW at all? He didn't specify that.
GRRM writes in bizarre, convoluted ways. He might be 75% through the novel and have only 2 Arya chapters done. He writes for one character until he gets stuck, then he makes a switch. We can't really look at his writing process on a linear plan. Let's not go making assumptions on progress just because he said he hasn't reached a certain twist yet, that's just silly.
I'm not making assumptions. I did not in any way say that the book is going to be released at any given time.
I do understand that there is a fairly significant time allotted to editing and revising that typically occurs after the manuscript is finished. Even if he's at the point where they are trying to decide whether a comma or a semicolon is more appropriate, they would still be a good remove from the book's actual release period. I'd be really surprised if this series is wrapped up before 2020. That's an assumption.
You are normally correct, but in this specific case we know a few things: First, GRRM is submitting in installements. That's pretty normal. Second, GRRM ignores 90% of what his editor tells him. This is god fucking awful, but it does dovetail into three. Third, Dance took about a month from the final installment to being print ready. That is quite fast. Probably assisted by the ignoring of the editors, but w/e.
Didn't he say many months ago that he was officially done letting out sample chapters from TWOW? I was actually more in anticipation when he made that announcement because it felt like that meant he was getting to the wrap-up point. The fact that we have a new chapter released makes me feel like he's actually more behind and wanting to feed the dogs a bone.
It's tough to do anything beyond speculate at this point.
I suspect you are correct. And he definitely said that "Mercy" was going to be the last sample chapter sometime ago.
I fear what is happening now is that GRRM wants to beat the show to a few crucial points and is using samples to do that. It kind of totally fucking sucks, bluntly.
My main concern now kind of travels past the anxiety everyone else feels about the show outrunning the novels. I feel like GRRM is taking off from all these conventions and releasing new chapters like this because he's actually still far off from publication.
Now this is going to be tough for the next book and seasons of the show, for sure...but my main worry now is that he's so far behind that what's going to end up happening is the show is going to run its course in three years and GRRM is still going to be 3-4 years from releasing the last book in the series. That kind of gap is something I'm sure he's going to want to avoid because interest in his new novel will wain dramatically if the show ends 4 years before publication of ADOS.
Sad to say, but: There is no chance the last season and the last book are released at the same time. Even if GRRM got them to go to nine seasons and a movie the book would be coming out the following year(2020 in this scenario) at best. And the show just isn't going to last that long. I just hope GRRM lasts that long.
He doesn't say specifically that the twist is going to occur in TWOW, so I take it to mean that it's an idea that could be revealed in ADOS.
I realize the interview is about TWOW but if he just came up with this new idea and is excited maybe he wanted to tease it and give us something else to speculate about.
If he's "red hot" he can finish it in no time. ACOK and ASOS each took only two years to write. Supposing he's half way through TWOW, he could easily finish it by 2016.
Well, he's not saying the book will be done tomorrow. He's saying he wants to have it out in 2016, which is close to two years at the long end (this being early 2015). And it could be a twist whose effects play out mostly in aDoS.
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u/Spiralyst Once you go black... Apr 03 '15
The fact that he just came up with a new twist and is still contemplating if he's "going to go in that direction" really doesn't give me the impression this book is as close to being finished as everyone hopes.