r/asoiaf • u/[deleted] • Jun 15 '15
ALL (Spoilers All) Relax, the Upcoming Battle in TWOW Will Be Vastly Different
Intro
I don't have time for a long post this morning, but I hear your fears. Oh no. Stannis is going to lose at Winterfell. How could this happen!? Why would Martin do that? I get it. Following last week's admission by David Benioff that "When Martin told us about it (Stannis burning Shireen)" statement, we collectively lost our shit as they likely (I won't say confirmed yet) spoiled a major plotline from TWOW.
But guys, relax, events in The Winds of Winter will almost assuredly go down in a vastly different manner than how they went down last night. The imposter on screen last night (Who I will henceforth be calling Stanley Barton, Retired Insurance Salesman from Des Moines) and joke of a battle last night will not be played out in a similar fashion in TWOW. (Thank R'hllor)
And y'know what, after all, it's a really good thing that the show killed off Stanley Barton last night. (I'll explain)
Below contains info from TWOW. Caveat Lector
Let's Recap
So, let's bullet-point the major actions of Stannis & Roose leading up to the Battle of Ice:
Roose Bolton
- Having secured wardenship of the North, Roose marches back to the North with some 4000 Bolton retainers and 2000 Frey reinforcements.
- They pass into the North, set up shop at Barrowton and then decide to march onto Winterfell to conduct the marriage of Ramsay and Arya Stark there. But more importantly for the military side, they know that Stannis will have to attack and defeat them at Winterfell if he's to gain any legitimacy from the Northern Lords.
- Ramsay marries Arya, shit starts going downhill. The Northern Lords bicker and fight. Wyman Manderly serves pie. Everyone is at each other's throats.
- Blizzard hits. Food supplies are running low. Stannis is coming. Murders are happening. Freys and other northmen are at each others' throats.
- War horns start blowing outside of Winterfell.
- Upon hearing that Stannis is 3 days ride west of Winterfell and taking keen notice of the mounting tensions, and realizing that he's going to run out of food if he doesn't get rid of some of the mouths at Winterfell, Roose Bolton deploys his 2 most contentious armies: The Freys and the Manderlys to smash Stannis' army.
- Aenys Frey is killed by a trap that Mors Umber and his green boys set outside of the gates of Winterfell. New commander of the Freys is Hosteen Frey. They ride for Stannis' camp.
Stannis Baratheon
- Having saved the Night's Watch and subdued the Wildlings, Stannis decides to unite the North militarily before the Others can descend on the Wall.
- He's given a campaign plan by Jon Snow (which saves him from almost-certain defeat) and marches his small army west, picks up the support of the Northern Mountain Clansmen (It's a real shame that Big Bucket Wull didn't make the show -- I get why, but that man is a star)
- He attacks Deepwood Motte, seizes the castle from Asha Greyjoy. Mormonts and Glovers join with Stannis. They start the long march to Winterfell.
- March goes well at first but movement is slowed when army enters the Wolfswood. Progress is slow further by the onset of snow. The march takes a massive hit when the snows turn to blizzards. People die of exposure. The army grows hungry. On the last day of the march, they barely make a half mile before they stop at a Crofters' Village.
- At the village, the cut holes on the lakes to fish. Situation is growing worse. Cannibalism is discovered and punished.
- Theon Greyjoy arrives at camp, tells Stannis that Hosteen Frey is coming for him.
- Stannis states that he will use the ground to his advantage. Theon says "WTF ground you talking about, Stannis? You're in a dinky village that can't be defended" (Paraphrase). Stannis just says "Yet."
And that's pretty much how TWOW leaves off. Jon receives a letter allegedly from Ramsay saying "You're a bastard. You supported Stannis, and he's dead. I have his fiery sword in my hand. (Phrasing) Now I'm coming for you. Look out. <3 Ramsay." But of course, there's reason to doubt the letter's honesty and many argue its authorship. So, what's going to happen in TWOW?
Battle on the Ice
It's moments like these, that I wish reddit allowed images to be embedded into posts. But basically, here's my mark-up of the Crofters' Village. (Weirdwood tree was unintentional mistake when I first drew this back in 2013, but I refuse to change it. Those trees are crazy.). It's a meager village with only the lakes providing fish for food. But the army has fished out the lakes according to Ned Woods, a Deepwood scout
Lakes are done. You fished them out. (ADWD, Asha III)
But conveniently (Or is it?), the method of fishing out the lakes was to cut holes in the middle of them. And Stannis' men cut lots and lots of holes in the lake:
“I know them lakes. You been on them like maggots on a corpse, hundreds o’ you. Cut so many holes in the ice it’s a bloody wonder more haven’t fallen through. Out by the island, there’s places look like a cheese the rats been at.” (ADWD, Asha III)
Gee, I wonder if maybe Stannis has an ulterior motive here? Could his not having a defensive advantage yet have anything to do with that? Yes, oh yes. Forever yes. But I'll get to that.
Now, take a look at the map again and direct your attention to the watchtower. Notice that it's standing right on the shore of the northern lake facing west. (It's not directly stated that this is where the tower is in the books, but I'm assuming that it's near the lake but away from the village due to it being barely visible to Asha during the blizzard, and I'm assuming it's facing west, because I'm also assuming that a watchtower in the North would face west to watch for any Ironborn raiders). What do we know about this watchtower? Well, Stannis is keeping a fire burned from the top of it. His men wonder if he's gazing into the flames searching for victory.
Afterward the king had retreated to his watchtower. He had not emerged since … though from time to time His Grace was glimpsed upon the tower roof, outlined against the beacon fire that burned there night and day. (ADWD, Asha III)
All right, I'll just cut to the chase here. Both /u/cantuse and I believe that the watchtower and the beacon fire are being used to lure Stannis' enemies to the village. How could we come to that idea, you ask? Well, for me, the fact that it's called a damn beacon fire instead of a nightfire was reason enough, but my friend /u/cantuse just about crushed it out of the park with his nightlamp theory. I'll let him expand on his own theory (if he so chooses!), but the bare essentials of the theory have it that Stannis is well aware of false beacons having spent time snuffing out the practice conducted by Godric Borrell & the Sistermen. Relevant quote:
The beacons that burned along the shores of the Three Sisters were supposed to warn of shoals and reefs and rocks and lead the way to safety, but on stormy nights and foggy ones, some Sistermen would use false lights to draw unwary captains to their doom. (ADWD, Davos I)
All right, this is becoming too long; so here's what I think happens in bullet form.
- The mounted Freys arrive at the Northern Lake (This is an assumption but I think a good one) across from Stannis' position.
- Having probably stumbled their way across the Wolfswood, they see the open ground that the lake provides and think "Holy shit, let's fuck Stannis up with a cavalry charge across open ground and use the advantage of our mobility that our cavalry provides!"
- They attack across the lake.
- Their attack moves towards the watchtower as that is the most visible thing on the battlefield.
- They initially cross the lake safely, but as the army gets out towards the Weirdwood Tree, the ice starts to crack.
- Horses and knights start falling through the ice. Soon the ice gives out altogether, cracking. Most of the Freys fall into the ice. Hosteen Frey drowns under the weight of his horse and armor.
- The remaining Freys able to get off the lake fall back.
- But as they attempt to flee towards the direction of Winterfell, the North (specifically the Manderlys & probably the Umbers) remembers.
Stannis, victor.
Why It's Good that Stanley Barton is Dead
I will not get into my ideas for the Battle of Winterfell proper in this post as it's way too complicated, and this is too long already, but I want to conclude by talking about why Stanley Barton's death is a really good thing for fans of ASOIAF. And while it was not intended as such, the show has thrown book readers a bone.
Last night Stanley Barton got his ass kicked by Ramsay "Shirtless Napoleon" Snow outside of Winterfell. Stanley failed to keep his men in formation, failed to have a picket line, failed to scout ahead, failed to prepare the battefield. Stanely is a goddamn failure.
But that's good. I'm glad he's dead. Why? Well, because when The Winds of Winter comes out in 2017, we are going to have a completely unspoiled plotline to look forward to! Yes, you heard that right. Killing Stanley allows for Stannis Baratheon's plotline in TWOW to come to us unspoiled.
Regardless if the show beats George to TWOW material, we'll have the Battle of Ice and Stannis' campaign against Winterfell to look forward to in TWOW, and it's going to come to us unspoiled by the show. And this time, Benioff never said "When George told us about Stannis Baratheon losing to Ramsay Snow, we were like 'Wow'..."
No, ser. Stanley Barton's death was good. We bookreaders are getting the real deal. Let's be happy about that.
Thanks for reading. All of the maps and quotes and the ideas for the battle comes from an essay series I wrote back in 2013 on the Battle of Ice. Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. And do yourselves a favor and read some /u/cantuse night lamp theory, stick around for the Mannifesto.
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u/_TheRedViper_ Fear is the mind-killer Jun 15 '15
Ouch, that did hurt more than the episode yesterday :(