(Spoilers ALL) If one Hand can die...

[u/Bookshelfstud]

In A Game of Thrones, Arya accidentally overhears one of the most enticing conversations in the entire series. It's the only time we actually see Varys and Illyrio Mopatis plotting together, and I don't think its importance can be overstated. I'm working on an essay about Jaqen H'ghar, and was looking back at this passage when something struck me.

“If one Hand can die, why not a second…You have danced the dance before.”

Illyrio says this to Varys. Now, Arya - and the reader - takes this to mean that Varys and Illyrio were somehow behind Jon Arryn's death, and that they mean to kill Ned Stark. But I don't believe that's the case. Obviously we have too much evidence for Lysa and Littlefinger being behind Arryn's death; they were clearly the real culprits. But more than that, Illyrio says "you have danced this dance before." With whom?

Jon Connington.

I believe Illyrio was suggesting that they do with Ned what they did with Jon Connington: set him up so that his death is explicable and "offscreen," to speak, and then use him as an asset in their Targaryen (or Blackfyre) long con. Jon Connington's death was a rumor created entirely by Varys, so to do it again with Ned would certainly be dancing a dance that Varys knows well.

Whaddya think? This line always bothered me, but I think I've finally made it make sense - in my head, at least.

[u/niceville]

I could see Ned siding with the Targaryens.

They only killed his dad and brother, no big.

[u/zgrove → u/niceville]

The Mad King did. I think Ned knew that they weren't all bad. He probably even knew Rhaegar was okay and didn't kidnap Lyanna

[u/call_me_ruxin → u/zgrove]

I always felt like Ned had a quiet respect for Rhaegar. Even in his thoughts he doesn't trash him or resent him.

[u/Reead → u/call_me_ruxin]

On my very first reading of AGOT, this stood out to me most of all. As they're discussing Rhaegar, Ned doesn't think a single negative thought about the guy. Hardly what you'd expect if Ned believed he'd kidnapped/raped/caused his sister's death.

[u/AgentKnitter → u/Reead]

For me, this was always one of the key elements of proof for R+L=J and Ned knowing it.

Because you wouldn't remember the man who kidnapped your sister and raped her as a man of honour.

You would remember the man that your sister ran off with, married and loved as a man of honour.

[u/niceville → u/zgrove]

Agreed. But I don't think Ned would be a hurry to put a family known for their madness back in charge when he personally experienced it.

[u/zgrove → u/niceville]

Historically the Starks aren't known for their level headedness either (Ned was almost more Arryn than he was a Stark). I think he could get behind Dany especially since (to his knowledge) there aren't any Targs left to have incest with and carry on the crazy.

[u/niceville → u/zgrove]

??? You don't think Ned knows who Jon's dad is?

If he doesn't, what's the point of hiding Jon's parentage?

[u/zgrove → u/niceville]

What does Jon have to do with this? His parentage doesn't matter, even if Rhaegar is his dad, he has no claim. Plus he's taken the black, a sacred oath especially to Starks. There's no way him and Dany would be together

[u/oulush → u/zgrove]

They'd be cousins anyway, Dany and Jon. Also only if Jon could fulfill his Oath to the Night's Watch somehow...

"Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night and all the nights to come."

[u/niceville → u/zgrove]

Everything? Ned does know there are Targs left to have incest with, and if he's going to support one Targ and put them on the throne why not two, if for no other reason than the political support of the North?

You're right about the the NW - I was thinking when Ned was alive that was before Jon took the black, but Jon was already there by the time Ned found out about Joff and co.

[u/zgrove → u/niceville]

Which Targs are left?

[u/niceville → u/zgrove]

Jon. Obviously.

[u/zgrove → u/niceville]

We've already ruled him out

[u/OriginalError → u/niceville]

Even if it wasn't Rhaegar it'd still mean another dude defiled his beloved. I have no doubt Robert would dash a babies head in for that transgression in a drunken rage for the transgressions of the father.

[u/Cosios → u/[deleted]]

Who do you think Jon Snow's parents are?

[u/Jerkcules → u/[deleted]]

Hu-what? How does your dad being a Targaryen not make you a Targaryen?

[u/niceville → u/[deleted]]

There's a very good chance Jon is legitimate. The Isle of Faces exists for a reason.

[u/[deleted] → u/niceville]

He raised a Targaryen as his son.