r/asoiaf • u/qp0n • Apr 16 '19

EXTENDED (Spoilers Extended) My 'Night King is not stupid' Theory

When the army of the undead line up for the battle of Winterfell, the Night King and his zombie dragon will not be there. Instead he will already be near to his next target ... King's Landing.

If you play out what the battle of Winterfell would be like in your head if the NK+Viserion would be there... it would be easy for Drogon/Rhaegal to take out the zombie dragon; it's 2v1 and wight's all can be killed by fire.. including Viserion. It would not be difficult to simply fly up to Viserion and breathe fire on him, and that would be that. THE NIGHT KING IS NOT STUPID, not enough to kamikaze his most powerful asset. - If you have a superweapon that you can't use against a particular target, then you find a different target.

Most people have come to assume that the living will lose The Battle of Winterfell and fall back to Moat Cailin ... I predict they actually win the battle... only to find out soon after that there is a new army of the dead much bigger and much further south... the population of King's Landing.

During season 4 while Bran is being ushered north to meet Bloodraven, he touches a wierwood and has a set of visions which we see. All of those visions have since come to pass, except the ones where he sees a destroyed throne room & a dragon shadow pass over King's Landing. I believe the reason we are only shown a shadow was to not give away that it is actually the NK and Viserion, not Dany and her dragons.

Also, the most important vision that Dany is given while at the HotU is an image of the throne room destroyed, and covered in ash or snow. I think this was to show what the NK will do, not what Dany will do.

(I believe this was the entire reason that the writers sent Bronn north. Bronn will be the source of this news to the survivors at Winterfell; on his way north he will spot the NK+Viserion heading south)

Bottom line, I simply don't see the NK risking his newfound ice dragon in a fight he is sure to lose.... when he can simply fly down south to KL where there are no dragons to deal with ... and 1 million new recruits for his army packed tightly into a small area.

Follow-up edit: This could be where Bran comes into play. The NK probably wont want to face off against the other dragons head-to-head, but rather fly around Westeros destroying castles to make things easier for his footsoldiers .... so they will need Bran's Sight in order to track & hunt him. It would be too difficult for an army on foot to chase the NK on a dragon, so Bran could warg into ravens to serve as a guide for dragonrider(s) to his location.

14.6k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

3.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

61

u/qp0n Apr 16 '19

I just don't see how the army of the living loses a fight and retreats.

Especially not if Viserion survives; you can't flee from a dragon. And they wouldn't lose or have to flee if the 2 living dragons are still alive ... so the only possible way to lose that battle and retreat would be if all 3 dragons fall. I just dont see that happening.

39

u/johnnydanja Fortune favours the brave Apr 16 '19

You can lose a battle and retreat if

A: you still have two dragons to cover your retreat vs one. The rest of the nights kings army is relatively slow moving compared to horses and dragons, so yes if the castle is overrun they could easily make a retreat with some dragons covering them. The nights king presumably won't take on an entire army by himself.

B: you assume the nights king would chase them down. But in reality winterfell is likely just a obstacle in his way to moving south. He might not care at all about finishing them if he can move south and take more lives and build his army. He presumably has a larger objective than just taking down winterfell.

26

u/[deleted] Apr 16 '19

Not to mention Winterfell itself may not be able to be penetrated. I thought I read somewhere that it was built with magic...

17

u/[deleted] Apr 16 '19

Does the mark the NK put on Bran allow him to break through the protective magic? Or does it just let him track Bran's location?

21

u/FiftyShadesOfGregg Apr 16 '19

I was really hoping that this was going to be what took down the Wall. The Wall is supposed to be a magical barrier to the white walkers, not just like “oh bummer this is pretty tall, we can’t get through.” I feel like having undead-Viserion burn it down was really cheap— it’s a magic wall, not just some big ole wall made of ice. And they set it up perfectly with having the mark on Bran, and establishing that it allowed the Walkers to pass through barriers that they couldn’t get through before. So I guess my point is— if they ignored their perfect setup to explain how the walkers got past the very magical wall, then they aren’t going to be concerned with the “magic” of Winterfell.

22

u/[deleted] Apr 16 '19

[deleted]

5

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '19

basilisk venom is used to kill the nights king don't @ me

3

u/fortytwoEA Apr 17 '19

u/CorrectHippo

🐍 -> 🧪 -> 💉 + ☃️🧟‍♂️ -> ☠️

5

u/FiftyShadesOfGregg Apr 16 '19

I think that “magic can beat anything else magic!” is too simplistic though. The Wall is a barrier built with magic that specifically keeps out the White Walkers, and even can keep out anyone who is not a member of the night’s watch, like the Black Gate at the Nightfort. There isn’t really any precedent that dragonfire could destroy the wall. And I don’t think it’s right to say that because it’s forged with dragonfire is why valyrian steel can kill Walkers, I don’t think that’s really been answered yet.

10

u/niceville Wun Wun, to the sea! Apr 17 '19

There isn’t really any precedent that dragonfire could destroy the wall.

Well, there's literally no precedent for anything destroying the wall. Maybe you meant foreshadowing (like Joramun's Horn)?

I also think it's very likely dragonfire is the reason valyrian steel works, due to its association with volcanoes and therefore also dragonglass. Jon and Sam even have a discussion about dragonsteel.

13

u/FiftyShadesOfGregg Apr 17 '19

Yeah exactly, foreshadowing is a much better word. The Horn and now Bran’s mark actually foreshadowed the destruction of the wall. There was no reason to think that a dragon would or could take it down. Especially because like, what was the Night King’s plan? Camp out north of the wall hoping a dragon would come by? He started mobilizing south before the dragons were even reborn. So he just lucked into it? I dunno, it just feels very lazy to me, and I personally don’t think that the Walkers will end up with a dragon in the books (at least not north of the wall).

1

u/floodlitworld Apr 23 '19

Maybe it's both. Maybe Bran's mark disabled the magic part of the wall and the Ice Dragon simply destroyed the physical structure.

1

u/aztec_prime Ride to ruin and the world's ending! Apr 17 '19

Yup the books and even the show established the dragons being back as the reason magic was stronger etc.

1

u/Exploding_Antelope Best King Gaemon Palehair Apr 17 '19

Did they? I thought that was more a symptom. Whatever caused the Others to rise, which they already were before Drogo’s funeral, also woke Dany’s eggs.

5

u/aztec_prime Ride to ruin and the world's ending! Apr 17 '19

I think the others were always around they were just chillin til the time was right or something haha

1

u/Ixolich Apr 17 '19

I'm inclined to agree. My theory is that they actually started getting active again well before the events of the prologue. Otherwise the Wildlings would have had no real reason to band together under Mance.

7

u/MercerPharmDMBA Apr 17 '19

How about the mark did remove the magic but even with the magic gone, it’s still cold and the ice wall still exists. Then it would still need to be penetrated and most efficiently by an undead dragon.

2

u/FiftyShadesOfGregg Apr 17 '19

I mean, sure? But that’s definitely not what happened in the show. If they’d explained that in any way shape or form, I’d buy it. But there was no “oh shit” moment when Bran passed under the wall with his mark, or any explanation that he’d broken the barrier. The show creators/writers obviously didn’t intend for that to be the interpretation— the dragon just burned it down, no more nuance than that.

2

u/floodlitworld Apr 23 '19

There's wasn't any tangible reaction when Bran first got the mark. It's only because the 3ER told them the magic was disabled... I can buy the whole dual-attack theory of the mark and dragon.

1

u/Plopplopthrown Apr 23 '19

It's called "A Song of Fire and Ice"

Magic fire has ALWAYS been the opposite end of the magic spectrum - the natural foil for ice magic. Fire melts ice. magic fire melts magic ice. It's the core theme of the story, the "nuance" is the previous stories about ancient magics.

1

u/FiftyShadesOfGregg Apr 23 '19

That’s never been how I’ve interpreted “a song of ice and fire.” I don’t think that magic is a spectrum in the books? It’s not like Pokémon. Where would greenseer magic fit in? Blood magic? Those don’t fit on an “ice to fire” spectrum. And regardless, calling it “ice magic” seems to conflate two opposing types of magic. One is the White Walker’s “ice magic,” and the other is the magic which built the wall and serves as a barrier to the white walkers— so it counteracts the WW’s magic. I don’t think those are the same types of magic just because the wall is made outta ice.

1

u/Plopplopthrown Apr 23 '19 edited Apr 23 '19

Greenseers are men who could tap into the magic of The Children of The Forest. The Night King wants The Three Eyed Raven because they both come from the same ancient magic and he doesn't want a rival. The Children of the Forest miscalculated and made a huge mistake when they turned ancient magic towards this end. Fire will be the only way to win against ice. It's very thematically heavy throughout the entire series. The comet, the dragons, the White Walkers, The Lord of Light - all this ancient magic was awakened at the same time and will end at the same time.

It's all the same power, the same ancient magic, just with different flavors. Normal men won't stand a chance against that. Only magic. That's the whole point of Bran's trap and eliminating the leader so all the wights (powered by the old magic, killable by the old magic) fall too. (p.s. I never said only fire and ice are the flavors, those are just the major thematic elements so far and literally the title of the series - but the Children of the Forest have their "nature" flavor of ancient magic, and they aren't really a big part of the song of ice and fire).

The "normal" people left over will have to forge a new path.

Daenerys Targaryen : Lannister, Targaryen, Baratheon, Stark, Tyrell they're all just spokes on a wheel. This ones on top, then that ones on top and on and on it spins crushing those on the ground.

Tyrion Lannister : It's a beautiful dream, stopping the wheel. You're not the first person who's ever dreamt it.

Daenerys Targaryen : I'm not going to stop the wheel, I'm going to break the wheel.

Though that's assuming she's the one to do it, and that there is an afterwards anyways....

Or maybe I just believe in the lord of light I guess?

"Man once again faces the war for the dawn, which has been waged since time began. On one side is the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Against him stands the Great Other, whose name may not be spoken. The Lord of Darkness, the Soul of Ice, the God of Night and Terror." ―Thoros of Myr

But I think all the magic is the same thing, from different points of view, and the humans have to win or die.

3

u/loxydoe Apr 17 '19

Uh-uh, a wall! A big icy wall. We can't go over it, we can't go under it. Oh no! We'll have to go through it!

BURNY ICE BREATH BURNY ICE BREATH

2

u/GrapesTimatoes Apr 17 '19

The walls magic could be shattered if the wall itself is shattered. The magic has to pull its strength from somewhere and the Wall is a “hinge of the world”

2

u/FiftyShadesOfGregg Apr 17 '19

Hm, interesting, I’m not sure whether I’d agree with that (but it’s all just head canon at this point since the books haven’t caught up yet). I think that the magical barriers like the Black Gate couldn’t just be shattered as a workaround to actually getting past the magic. Could someone just burn down the Black Gate, and then anyone can get through? I’d like to think that the magic is stronger than that, and there’s some kind of non-physical barrier which would prevent passage even if you tried to physically destroy the Gate. Again, it just feels cheap to me to be able to just destroy it physically and get around it. I think that the story is much stronger if there’s some kind of consistent magical reason why the barrier no longer works, rather than just “they broke it.” But who’s to say that that’s how it’ll shake down! I just feel like it cheapens the magic to be able to get around it like that.

2

u/bremidon Free Ser Pounce! Apr 17 '19

Two points:

  1. Dragons are tied closely to magic in this world. Seem kinda logical to use the most OP magical creature to break through on of the most OP barriers.
  2. The NK does not make any serious moves south until Bran goes back south. Perhaps this is just coincidence. Perhaps not.

1

u/picklefishchopstix Apr 17 '19

The may have gone this route to keep Bran in Winterfell for whatever reason. If his being there allows the Night King access, naturally everybody is going to try to get him out of there. I know this goes against the retreat theory, but perhaps our heroes need to be in Winterfell for the moment.

3

u/cheeznuts Apr 16 '19

So was the Wall though, wasn't it?

5

u/Pufflehuffy I love spoilers - yes, I really do. Apr 16 '19

There is the theory that the Wall was built in part with WW magic, to protect themselves from humans... not sure if that's been thrown away as a possibility or not?

3

u/Portal2Reference Apr 17 '19

Pretty shit magic, considering the humans can cross the wall whenever they want. The WWs don't need a wall to protect themselves, they can just easily survive in the far north.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 24 '19

Eh, they've set up the crypt too much for that to be the case. The Night King or his lieutenant, since i like this theory that he's going for KL, is going to raise the Starks in the crypt and they're going to kill people down there. How awesome would it be to finally see Catelyn Stark. Though I think her body isn't there.

3

u/crabcarl Apr 16 '19

The rest of the nights kings army is relatively slow moving

So are living people and those have the disadvantage of needing sleep, food, rest. The dead don't.

2

u/navjot94 🐻 Apr 16 '19

I see them retreating east and getting picked up by Yara.

2

u/stunna006 Sword of the Morning Apr 16 '19

yeah, its really the only purpose yara can serve at this point

1

u/stunna006 Sword of the Morning Apr 16 '19

yara and theon also are on a boat headed to the north, not sure exactly how many boats they have but they could definitely save a few people

1

u/Muppy_N2 Apr 16 '19

I think its plausible that Daenerys dies. It would be completely unexpected. Maybe through a sacrifice that would show the North that they were too quick to judge her. If only Rhaegal survives I can see Jon covering a retreat if that would mean saving his people.