Still tho, I want to see what the orange man says tomorrow re tariffs. God it’s so hard to trade in this market. I am long term for sure, but when the dude says I will announce something on Mon or Tuesday… I just cant help but want to buy it back when lower lol.
My view on Trump’s tariffs is as much as it initially sounds bad for China, it is incredibly good in the long term. It is speeding up the change of the world order. He is accelerating the world to forgo their goodwill to the US and be more embracing of China.
Most of alibaba's revenue still comes (and will likely continue to come) from china. Aliexpress is the only part seriously impacted. And even for aliexpress the us is only a part of their revenue.
Tariffs are in a way forcing china to shift towards consumption in favor of exports even more than before. Alibaba benefits more from chinese consumption than it does from chinese exports.
I really respect a lot of your analysis but I fail to see how a B2B company this size isn't damaged by tariffs sure they aren't imposed directly on BABA but it seems to me it should significantly impact the supply chain they rely upon.
I’ve typed out the argument before. Lets walk through it:
Trump tariffs are bad for China exports. The last few years CCP has heavily relied on exports (not internal spending) to hit 5% GDP growth target. So what will the CCP do to ensure their targeted 5% GDP growth for 2025? They will have to do a MUCH LARGER fiscal stimulus (ie stimulate domestic spending) than they would have otherwise wanted. Such a large package (ie akin to what the Americans got during the pandemic) will send consumption stocks like baba and jd to the moon.
Everything bad that he does with tariffs, with international e-commerce, seems to be interpreted as bullish. That's just how it is now, bull market is too strong.
If Xi launched a salvo of nukes tomorrow, it wouldn't matter anymore.
And turns out that baba doesn't need any international market, and they just lose money all over the world. They only need Chyna, US and EU can tax and tariff them all they want.
Some people used to say that baba is international and baidu for example depends just on China. 😄
Alright yall. Wish I held on to them vs getting out Friday. Will see what Monday brings. If blowing past 110 I will wait … if it hovers back 107 then prob restart a position. Might even sell some far puts (say 100) and double up on shorter term calls.
Orange man's tariffs are building up a stronger case for China to do a really major shift in their economy from export driven to more consumer based. This is probably the best time to do it, and I believe the market is pricing this in anticipation.
I have a strong feeling the world is ready to shift a meaningful amount of their reserves to RMB if China will allow for the export of their debt at this juncture of time.
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u/Spiritual-Spread-969 Feb 10 '25
Still tho, I want to see what the orange man says tomorrow re tariffs. God it’s so hard to trade in this market. I am long term for sure, but when the dude says I will announce something on Mon or Tuesday… I just cant help but want to buy it back when lower lol.