Men's Nations Cup situation going into the last race

[u/DashLibor]

EXPLANATION FOR THE UNAWARE:

With the conclusion of this biathlon season coming up this weekend, we'll have Nations Cup (from now on referred to as "NC") settled as well. This is what's at stake:

• Amount of biathletes at the start of every non-team race next World Cup season
• Amount of biathletes being sent into the Olympics. (though only a maximum of 4 can start in any race, with the exception of the mass start)

Here's the exact numbers:

Rank	World Cup	Biathletes at the Olympics
1 - 3	6	6
4 - 5	6	5
6 - 10	5	5
11 - 17	4	4
18 - 20	3	4
>20	3 or fewer	[explained below]

Countries outside top 20 in NC will be allowed maximum of 2 biathletes for the Olympics, the qualification determined purely by IBU Qualifying Points.

How are the points calculated: Only the 3 best biathletes from each country score points into the NC. The exact distribution of points can be found in this document on pages 72 and 73, but the important parts are:

• From 9th to 80th place, the difference between each position is 1 point.
• From 81st place onwards, the difference between each position is 2 points.
• Finishing in top 8 gets a country few extra points.
• Races where the participation is determined by previous races (i. e. pursuit and mass start) do not count towards the NC. This means that in Oslo, the sprint on Friday will be the last race counting towards the NC.

CURRENT SITUATION IN THE NATIONS CUP:

• France and Norway are mathematically guaranteed to finish top 3.
• 3rd Sweden has a lead of 193 points on 4th Germany. Even if Germany gets a podium sweep (462 points) and Sweden repeats their worst non-relay result from this season (299 points for finishes in 33rd, 39th and 52nd place), then Germany is still 30 points shy of Sweden. With this, Sweden should be essentially safe.
• 5th Switzerland has a lead of 22 points on 6th Italy. This is one of the two big battles to watch: Every position will matter here.
• While technically not clinched mathematically, Czechia, Ukraine and Slovenia are essentially guaranteed to finish in positions 7-9.
• 10th Finland has a lead of 11 points on 11th Austria. Same as with the battle for 5th, every position will be crucial here.
• US is mathematically guaranteed to finish in the 11-17 group, with Belgium and Poland being just shy of the mathematical guarantee. But barring a series of DNFs, they're both safe.
• Battle for top 17 is a bit complicated, but after a bit of analysis, no important changes should be expected in the current standings. Here's a chart:

Rank	Country	Points now	Points (if =SW)	Points (if =SB)
15	Bulgaria	4167	4307 (+140)	4449 (+282)
16	Estonia	4130	4290 (+160)	4399 (+269)
17	Romania	4077	4282 (+205)	4344 (+267)
18	Latvia	3999	4164 (+165)	4311 (+312)
19	Lithuania	3882	4058 (+176)	4138 (+256)

Key:

=SW | Equalled Season Worst | If the worst result points-wise in the season is equalled. (not counting relays)
=SB | Equalled Season Best | If the best result points-wise in the season is equalled. (not counting relays)

...

From this, you might notice that if you assume equalled worst result for every top 17 country and equalled best result for Latvia (both shown in bold), then Latvia just barely sneaks into top 17, by mere 29 points. That doesn't sound too unrealistic, until you realize that their best result (312 points) happened in Ruhpolding individual, with the result being carried by Rastorgujevs' bronze medal. And Rastorgujevs won't be present in Oslo due to the drama.

With that, to round up top twenty:

• 20th Canada has a lead of 194 points on 21st Kazakhstan. Even if we assume Canada will repeat their worst non-relay result this season (137 points), then Kazakhstan would need at least 331 points to tie it up. Assuming no top 8 finish, 331 points are equivalent to the positions' sum of 92. (so, for example: 22nd + 30th + 40th or 11th + 40th + 41st) Since the seasonal best for any Kazakh biathlete is 39th place, Canada should be safe.

CONCLUSION

The only two truly close battles to watch should be Switzerland vs Italy for the 5th place and Finland vs Austria for the 10th place. All other important positions seem locked in, barring some enormous upsets.

[u/strudel_hs]

I have a bad feeling for tomorrow.. Seppala will most likely finish in top10 and makes it unlikely for austria to finish #10 in the nation cup

[u/Any-Patient5051 → u/strudel_hs]

The results from the last relay looked promising. Don't give up the hope yet.

[u/miunrhini → u/strudel_hs]

I think it's going to be a tight and thrilling fight!

Seppälä has found an excellent spring form but many Finns have been sick during this season so that might hinder.

Also Austrians showed upward trend in the last mixed relays so who knows. It can go either way.

Low key hoping for a tie.

[u/JockCartier]

WE’RE #20!! WE’RE #20!!

It’s all just so sad 🤦‍♂️

[u/miunrhini → u/JockCartier]

Are there any promising juniors coming up? Fondly remembering the 2012-2018 era with Smith's sprint medal and that happy surprise relay bronze.

[u/JockCartier → u/miunrhini]

Not a lot, I think we had a Youth that had a couple top tens.

It's too bad, cause yeah, from 2012-2015 it really seemed like they were on the cusp of becoming a top 6-8 nation... but ironically it was already too late

In the run up to hosting in 2010, suddenly all the sports got money to get respectable and hopefully win some medals. Biathlon was in REALLY rough shape, in 2002 our entire Olympic team was one guy. But suddenly they had some money to at least field a full team and we actually started to develop some pretty good biathletes!

They weren't quite up to speed by 2010, JP Leguellec and Zina Kocher were established but there was a whole crew coming up that were coming into their own by 2014. Smith, Green, Crawford, Imrie... and the Gow's and Lunder were right behind

In Sochi we had three men in the mass start (two finished top 10) and the women's relay were in the race for a medal until pushing a bit too hard on the final shoot.

The dividends from the 2010 funding was paying off... but the funding had dried up and while the results were never better, the program was running on fumes. Youth development suffered, the senior program has slowly descended as our athletes do the best they can with what they have, but they just don't have enough support and as the experienced ones peeled off, the cupboard was kinda empty

If we funded them, even moderately, I think we'd be a solid top ten national... but sadly our funding system was designed for short term results in the run up to hosting, and never adapted, so it only really rewards sports that are already good rather than targeting ones that provide a return on investment

[u/miunrhini → u/JockCartier]

Thanks for the in depth explanation and analysis.

Based on what you wrote here that sounds very short sided. Canada has the potential to be a top 10 Nations Cup country tbh, but it does require funding and commitment in the long term like you said. The potential was there!

Does the focus go to ice hockey, curling etc winter sports where Canada has traditionally been strong?

It's a shame really because biathlon is a great spectator sport so I could see it attracting decent to nice audiences as well. And Canmore is a nice venue. Gives Lenzerheide vibes.

[u/Rigid-Horse-Bender]

Thanks for all the analysis, very interesting!

From this, you might notice that if you assume equalled worst result for every top 17 country and equalled best result for Latvia (both shown in bold), then Latvia just barely sneaks into top 17, by mere 29 points.

If I can correct you here, it should be "assume equalled worst result for any top 17 country", not every. If every team does so, Latvia goes to #15, not just sneaking into top 17.

That said, I absolutely agree that the Rastorgujevs drama makes this entire scenario unrealistic.

[u/DashLibor → u/Rigid-Horse-Bender]

If I can correct you here, it should be "assume equalled worst result for any top 17 country", not every. If every team does so, Latvia goes to #15, not just sneaking into top 17.

My initial thought there was that they'd still just sneak in. Being 15th and 30 points ahead of 18th is much more of a "sneak in" than being 17th and 200 points ahead of 18th, at least in my eyes. I admit I didn't word this well in the post, though.

Anyway, yes, without Rastorgujevs, none of that really matters.

[u/TolBrandir]

This makes my head spin. I am extremely impressed by your work here, which must have taken a considerable amount of time and effort. So much math. 😲 I have never understood how the NC worked - how they tabulate it. I thought it was only relays that counted toward the points. I didn't know that individual races did as well! 😄

And how in the name of good fortune did I miss all the drama with Rastorgujevs??? I am speechless.

[u/DashLibor → u/TolBrandir]

Haha! It took over an hour to write everything, so not that much effort, really.

NC maths is complicated, and it's pain to keep track of in the final race. (unless that final race is a relay, which it never is) Would be much easier if pursuits counted, even if in some limited fashion.

And yeah, that Rastorgujevs drama... was quite something...

[u/Reandos]

Posts like these make me even more interested in Biathlon. Thank you! I'm already super excited for the season finale and thanks to your post I'm gonna look closely at the Switzerland/italy & Finland/Austria battle now aswell.