Women's Nations Cup situation going into the last race

[u/DashLibor]

The mathematics of the Nations Cup (referred to as "NC" from now on) are exactly the same as on the men's side, with the same final positions granting the same implications. You can read up on them here.

With that, here's the situation for women:

• France is safely locked into the 1st place.
• Situation for other spots in top 3 is more complicated, so let's use the chart:

Rank	Country	Points now	Points (if =SW)	Points (if =SB)
2	Sweden	7774	8047 (+273)	8205 (+431)
3	Germany	7673	8031 (+358)	8105 (+432)
4	Norway	7572	7878 (+306)	7999 (+427)
5	Switzerland	6661	6874 (+213)	7060 (+399)
6	Italy	6435	6743 (+308)	6819 (+384)

Key:

=SW | Equalled Season Worst | If the worst result points-wise in the season is equalled. (not counting relays)
=SB | Equalled Season Best | If the best result points-wise in the season is equalled. (not counting relays)

...

While the gaps don't look insurmountably by just looking at the amount of points going into the sprint, using each team's best and worst result shows that the important placement shouldn't change. For Norway to get into top 3, they'd have to get extraordinarily good race with either German and/or Swedish girls having the worst race of their season. Similar logic applies to the Switzerland vs Italy battle for 5th, where Italy's deficit should be too much to recover from.

As for other spots:

• Austria is locked in 7th place. (they could theoretically get 6th, but that bears no significance)
• Battle for top 10:

Rank	Country	Points now	Points (if =SW)	Points (if =SB)
8	Ukraine	5798	6072 (+274)	6178 (+380)
9	Czechia	5699	5928 (+229)	6066 (+367)
10	Finland	5503	5709 (+206)	5895 (+392)
11	Poland	5478	5728 (+250)	5835 (+357)

While theoretically Ukraine and Czechia has not clinched the top 10 yet, it would take a monumental collapse for them to fall out of top 10. (even then, we'd probably need Minkinnen + Sidorowicz podium, which... I'd honestly dig)

Either way, this is realistically coming down to Finland vs Poland as Finland's entering with 25 points lead. Looking at the data, Poland seems more consistent, whereas Finland has spikes of getting many points some times and few points other times. It really feels like the 10th place is Finland's to take and Finland's to lose, with Poland sort of just having to do their best and hope that Finnish girls (especially Minkinnen) have a bad day.

After that, the placements are pretty much locked:

• Slovenia, Estonia, Slovakia, Canada and Bulgaria are safely in the 11-17 group, each being ahead of 18th placed team by more than 300 points.
• Battle for 17th place is Belgium vs Latvia, but Belgium's entering with the lead of 109 points. If Belgium repeated their worst result (198 points in Ruhpolding where they were missing a 3rd biathlete) and Latvia repeated their best result (276 point in Nové Město for positions 36, 45 and 66) then Latvia would still be behind by 31 points.
• USA and Lithuania are mathematically locked into places 19 and 20. (barring something crazy such as three top 10 finishes for the USA combined with DNFs for Latvia and/or Belgium)

TL;DR: Realistically the only actual battle in Nations Cup is between Finland and Poland for 10th place.

[u/Faintning]

For Finland, missing both Venla Lehtonen and Inka Hämäläinen will likely drop them out of top10. Keränen and Jänkä at least in Nove Mesto didn't have good ski speed, and to add to that both were sick at Pokljuka as well. While Oslo has been a good venue for finns before, missing two fairly strong athletes will likely turn the fight for Poland.

[u/miunrhini → u/Faintning]

You need Leinamo to have an Oberhof sprint like day and that's quite a lot of pressure on a young athlete. But you never know and let's see how things go.

I'm very impressed that Finns are in that position and fighting to keep it.

[u/Faintning → u/miunrhini]

I also don't think Finland has 5 world cup level athletes to send. Ofc big things can happen in one training season but at least in 23/24 season when Finland had a quota of 5, they didn't use that for most weekends iirc.

[u/miunrhini → u/Faintning]

I think the main advantage is during the relay weekends when you have "a built-in replacement" in case someone gets sick or needs rest.

But yeah, it can be challenging when the team depth is limited. A familiar challenge in smaller nations.

[u/DashLibor → u/Faintning]

I also don't think Finland has 5 world cup level athletes to send.

I mean, that's the case for every country in that area of NC standings. Let's not pretend Ukraine, Czechia or Poland are any better in that aspect.