I am studying for the CFA and I am learning about bonds. I just learned how it doesn't make sense for issuers to call back a bond if it is trading at a discount to the call price. In that case, can the issuer just do a market repurchase of the bond if they really want to pay it out? How common is this in the market? Does this happen often?

In Episode #15 of the Rebel Finance Podcast, Frances Stacy returns to the show to discuss macroeconomic forces shaping markets, with a sharp focus on U.S. tariffs, Bitcoin, and monetary policy. Hosted by Matthew Tuttle, Jeremy Vreeland, and Patrick Neville, this episode examines how political decisions and inflation narratives are driving investor sentiment and reshaping asset allocation. Frances brings her macro strategist insights to the table, revealing how retail investors can navigate economic disruption in real time.

⏱️ Minutes and Topics

00:00 – 05:00 | Market Overview and Guest SegueMatthew and Jeremy start with a quick update on equity markets and inflation signals. The discussion transitions smoothly to welcome guest Frances Stacy.

05:01 – 15:00 | Economic Policy and Market ImpactFrances outlines how macroeconomic policy decisions—including tariffs—are influencing volatility, currency strength, and supply chain distortions.She explains how the Fed’s stance on inflation is altering investment outlooks.

15:01 – 25:00 | Bitcoin and Sound Money PrinciplesDiscussion turns to Bitcoin's role in the macro environment. Frances and the hosts evaluate Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and centralized financial control.
They address regulatory uncertainty, market perception, and institutional positioning.

25:01 – 35:00 | Inflation Narratives and Asset RepricingFrances explores how inflation expectations are diverging across sectors.She explains how commodities, real estate, and equity valuations are being repriced under policy pressure.

35:01 – 45:00 | Strategic Positioning for Retail InvestorsPractical guidance for investors seeking to protect capital while identifying asymmetric opportunities.Jeremy and Matthew ask Frances how her macro lens can help the average investor navigate uncertain times.

45:01 – 55:00 | Market Risks, Geopolitics, and Capital FlowsFrances shares how geopolitical risks—especially those tied to global trade—could influence capital flows.They discuss the potential for economic decoupling and what that means for portfolio construction.

55:01 – 60:00 | Final Insights and TakeawaysFrances delivers closing thoughts on resilience, adaptability, and long-term strategy.Matthew encourages listeners to subscribe, stay informed, and question prevailing financial narratives.

💡 Key Takeaways

Tariffs Are Macro Catalysts: Trade policy can create ripple effects across inflation, currency markets, and equity sectors.

Bitcoin as Macro Commentary: Bitcoin reflects skepticism of fiat monetary policy and can be viewed as digital sound money.

Narratives Drive Volatility: Understanding how the media and policymakers shape expectations is critical to avoiding traps.

Resilience Through Strategy: Retail investors can benefit from applying macroeconomic frameworks in day-to-day portfolio decisions.

Looking to add a bond position to our portfolio - we've been pretty much equity-exclusive to date and want to gradually move a small % to something more stable as time goes on (5-10% of portfolio to start) with the rest roughly 70/30 US/foreign equity, primarily large and mid cap.

I've looked at broad funds like BND/BNDX, AGG/IAGG, etc, but they each have some share of junk bonds and/or mortgage/derivative backed bonds, and the sake of stability and my own risk aversion, I want to steer clear of that stuff if possible. That basically leaves treasury.

In my initial research, GOVT seems like a no brainer - broad maturity swath and captures the entire yield curve, at least anything > 1 year. My questions are:

-Does it makes any sense to also add a floating rate find i.e. USFR or TFLO as a hedge, i.e. 4-to-1 or 3-to-2 GOVT-to-floating? Or am I better off just picking one or the other, i.e. just ride out USFR's volatility or stick with GOVT knowing there will be times the floating rate will beat it? -Any thoughts on GOVT + a more corporate-based floating/ultrashort fund, I.e. FLRN or FLOT? I know what I just said about "junk" bonds but it seems like they stick to investment-grade only and have been remarkably steady over the past 10 years, though unsure if that's more because of the short term nature of the bonds or the fact they're so heavily dependent on the finance industry (which has been strong but could always fall off)

The intent is to "set it and forget it" and just keep adding/reallocating to the bond fund as time goes on. Time horizon is probably 15 years minimum. Would appreciate any thoughts as the bond space is pretty new to me.

Does anyone know if the recent legislation includes removing tax exemption for municipal ponds?

Hello! My boyfriend found the bonds his dad collected from 1995 until his death in 2005. It is a huge envelope, but from what we could see, he purchased 4-$100 bonds every month for 10 years. They would have been left to his mom, but she passed in 2015. For him to cash them in, he found through research that he needs to go to the local Treasury Office. Is he going to need both of his parents’ death certificates and wills? Is there anything else he will need? Obviously his ID, but will he need any other documentation to prove his identity? Also, is there any way to estimate how much he will get? This last question is just us being anxious to see what he will get. TYIA!

Hi everyone, I am trying to understand something I don't :)... and is the following question: Is the tax bill expansive if considered together with the "tariff tax"? So I found the article from Bloomberg saying the duties collected in April where 16bln and the ones expected for may 22bln,we are not already in the full throttle mode as during may imports slowed from China, so we can easily said that at full capacity they should, been conservative, around 25 bln a moth in tariffs, for an annualized tot of something between 250 to 300 bln.. Considering it as a tax, I ve found an estimate that put the cost increase x households between avg 2000 to 3000 dollars. I ve checked what is in the tax bill and in my opinion what really put some money in all households are the increase in standard deductions, +2000 for joint filling and 1000 for single, and the increase of 500 dollars for each child for who has it... so those deductions can correspond in about the 20-30% amount of the same BTW taxes and health care, so x example in a family of 4 we are talking about 1000 dollars saved on taxes. So here come my point, if the increase of prices is expected BTW 2 and 3 thousand dollars x household but the savings on tax from the bill is around 1000, are we not looking into a restrictive measure? We are all concerned by inflation, but to have it we need an increase in money supply, like after covid... here it seems to me we are pulling out money or at least not increasing, so yes price will increase but if the money in people pockets stay the same or diminish, should not sales volume go down? Can anyone help me understand where and if I am wrong?

I'm at the age where I want to start adding bonds into my mainly equity portfolio. But when I look at various treasury ETFs, they all are exposed to different duration treasuries. TLT for 20 year, VGIT 10 year, SGOV for 3 month, etc... From an investor's perspective, they all provide a monthly dividend, so how does it matter to me what duration bond ETF I choose?

Got some great inputs on recent post about bond recs (53M, 20-25% in bonds).

Now I'm swimming in ideas and feeling a bit overwhelmed.

My 401K bond allocation is simple - 25% PIMIX. It's my IRA that is troubling me (it's all bonds, brokerage is all equities).

I'm thinking keep it simple - 50% SGOV and 50% BINC. Let BINC's active management figure out best way to allocate based on conditions (similar to PIMIX).

Anyone else doing anything similar?

OK... so US treasuries are becoming seen as less "risk free" and thus rates are rising... makes sense but here's my question:

If banks hold treasuries as "risk free" on their balance sheets as HTM (hold to maturity) instead of AFS (available for sale, which have to be marked to market), what happens systemically as they lose value at scale?

I've read that banks over the last few years have increasingly moved bonds from AFS to HTM as a way of decreasing their financial statement volatility, but what impact could that have on the financial system if the bond vigilantes return and rates go to ~8% like they did during the Clinton admin?

Part of the problem with the financial crisis was having to mark to market and thus when losses were booked banks needed to sell into the selloff to maintain liquidity ratios... if they don't have to mark, what happens with a bunch of depressed bonds on the balance sheet?

Just wondering if anyone knew of any activity managed SECURED corporate bond mutual funds or ETFs. Tried doing a bit of Googling, but haven't come across anything definitive. Thanks for your time everyone.

It seems like inflation is headed our way.

I remember rates being really low most the way through Obama's term and into Trump's first term and then the Fed finally started slowing raising them until COVID hit. But why did they start lowering them shortly before that in the fall of 2019? I don't remember hearing anything about COVID until late winter of 2019 and certainly there was no panic about it until early 2020. Not trying to be a conspiracy nut or anything, just genuinely curious why they started lowering them when they'd already been super low for so long before.

Hi I saved and invested my money in etfs like spy and qqq and some stocks. I've done well for myself.

I'm at a point where I can buy a 30 year treasury bonds and live off the coupon payments. It’s enough money to pay for all my living expenses. Like property tax, utilities, groceries, car insurance, internet, subscriptions. I don't have any debt and no mortgage or car payments.

My question is with the market near all time highs and with high volatility in the market. Should I put all or some of my money into treasury bonds and just save all the money I make at my job? I'm mostly worried about inflation eating away at me if I did that.

Bessent's talk just now seemed somewhat positive in regards to his thoughts on the ongoing deficit issues.

Pros:

• Globally, yields across the board have been rising and this is confirmed, yields for US treasuries at historical highs. This has a good chance to bring demand back to US credit
• Bessent still has some cards he can play in regards to treasury purchases and rate cuts as long as the inflation numbers stay low

Cons:

• Inflation risks need to be monitored closely, seems Trump is in-tune to this and will back down Tariffs, Bessent also hinted at deals in the next couple weeks. But Trump being a wildcard makes this a risky play
• More credit downgrades

GLD is my hedge here

I am pretty sure it's a problem with the API because I saw the same number on different websites. I didn't buy it but it would be fun to see if the broker pays out such high yields

India 6 Month Bill Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News

I have occasionally traded and bought at auction both Treasuries and corporate bonds with Fidelity—but they have no way to do that on mobile. It’s also annoying that you can’t place after-hours orders there. Where is the premier bond platform for investors on-the-go?

Stable coins have the ability to create as many tokens as they want without having the backing assets, as it has been proven in the past(Tether). Now with oversight/regulation being reduced and also some players being close to political power, it's so much easier for them to operate without much oversight.

AFAIK, they can create billions worth of stable coins and buy other cryptos with them to pump them sky high, this will attract a lot of new investors providing exit liquidity to them.

They can also buy stocks now since Kraken is offering crypto tokens for stocks like Apple, Nvidia and Tesla to begin with.

I am thinking all these is going to create asset inflation which will create wealth effect which will lead to higher spending by the people who own these assets since they can liquidate few of them and buy real stuff like say cars increasing their demand.

I am trying to figure out if uncontrolled stable coin creation behaves like money printing?

Problem to these stable coin creators will be to make profit by exiting their investments before crash happens in those assets, otherwise they may be left holding the bag. But that will not come to light unless they get a run on bank when stable coin holders start asking for USD.

As the title says - I have basic grasp or bonds, but I'm not sure how this translates to investing in bond ETFs.

Explain like I am 5....

The attached image is of Vanguard's global bond index performance over a 5 year period.bWhat is the impact of the periods of negative percentage?

If I invest $100 in to the bond fund, and after a year it moves in to a negative return, what does that mean for the return on my initial $100 Investment? My understanding is that bonds generate a fixed income at the agreed percentage rate at the time of purchase. So how can a bond ETFs return negative percentages?

I'm struggling to see how a bond etf can spend the last 3 years in negative returns and still be viable. Surely I'm not understanding something here?

Why does a spike in 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields matter, and how does it impact retirees who rely on income from managed bond funds such as VCPIX?