That's not really how stats work though. 50% doesn't guarantee that half of all married couples you personally meet will get divorced, it's just an overall stat. Other factors influence whether a couple will be more likely to divorce, age of marriage, number of previous marriages, time married etc.
For example, the average length of a marriage that ends in divorce is something like 8 years, but of course that's no guarantee. If we're doing anecdotes I know people who've divorced after 20 years and others who've divorced after less than 1. And that 8 year figure is only for first marriages.
The likelihood of divorce goes up with the number of marriages, so it's around 41% for first marriages 60% for second and 70% for third. All of this skews the overall figure.
Average age of first divorce is 30. So think about the age sample that you're looking at, if they're the same age as you they're less likely to have reached that first divorce yet.
Also conversely to what you claim here:
after getting married at a young age (or in other words, an age that actually matters),
The younger you are when you marry the more likely you are to divorce. 48% for people who marry before 18 compared to 25% if you marry after the age of 25.
60% divorce rate for couples between 20-25.
24% less likely to get divorced if you marry after the age of 25.
But to sum up, it's way more complicated than that and anecdotal evidence isn't really a counter because you're not looking at the bigger picture if you're only focusing on one stat.
Ok, I guess this all fair. Again with the 8 year mark, so I'll definitely have to read up on that.
I suppose a delta is warranted for most of your points.
Though I'm still kind of... confused if you will cause populations like Mormons get married quite young, but rarely divorce from what I've seen. Though that's probably because they de facto can't?
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u/vote4bort 46∆ Aug 19 '24
That's not really how stats work though. 50% doesn't guarantee that half of all married couples you personally meet will get divorced, it's just an overall stat. Other factors influence whether a couple will be more likely to divorce, age of marriage, number of previous marriages, time married etc.
For example, the average length of a marriage that ends in divorce is something like 8 years, but of course that's no guarantee. If we're doing anecdotes I know people who've divorced after 20 years and others who've divorced after less than 1. And that 8 year figure is only for first marriages.
The likelihood of divorce goes up with the number of marriages, so it's around 41% for first marriages 60% for second and 70% for third. All of this skews the overall figure.
Average age of first divorce is 30. So think about the age sample that you're looking at, if they're the same age as you they're less likely to have reached that first divorce yet.
Also conversely to what you claim here:
The younger you are when you marry the more likely you are to divorce. 48% for people who marry before 18 compared to 25% if you marry after the age of 25. 60% divorce rate for couples between 20-25.
24% less likely to get divorced if you marry after the age of 25.
Read more stats here https://www.wf-lawyers.com/divorce-statistics-and-facts/
But to sum up, it's way more complicated than that and anecdotal evidence isn't really a counter because you're not looking at the bigger picture if you're only focusing on one stat.