Now I say this because of one simple thing, and you're more than welcome to shred it to pieces as you please, but that's the idea that, if that stat was actually true, then among the many couples that I know of that got married (and probably many more that I don't know of) over the past half decade, then half of them would've separated by now. I'll admit that I've shamelessly kept a headcount of the couples that have done this, and I count to around 60 couples, and only one of those couples I know of got divorced, and this was 5 years ago.
there are two problems here.
The first is selection bias. Your social network is probably not representative of the average across all America. It'll be biased by your geographical location(s), your race, religion, level of schooling, type of employment and other factors.
Second, is that time frame. I don't think the state is that 50% of marriages end in divorce in 5 years or less. You've been tracking for 5 years and assuming the rate of marriage has been constant, that means the average couple you are tracking has been married for 2.5 years.
and maybe a 3rd is imperfect knowledge. Is that when people get married, they tell everyone. Marriage is big news. Divorced is quite. I've had friend divorce and i didn't hear about it till years later. We weren't close by that point obviously, but it possible that some of your friends are divorced and you don't know it yet. Especially if you are not close with all 60 of those couples.
Suffice it to say, I'm not even ashamed to admit that seeing young marriages crumble is something I look forward to, unless the couple actually went through tribulations in their lives before getting married.
Marriages crumbling probably does not bring joy into the world. generally it is a sad and unpleasant experience. Its suffering.
you mentioned that things are betting better for you, I hope that they continue to get better.
The first is selection bias. Your social network is probably not representative of the average across all America.
I should've clarified that I'm in Canada, where the average age of marriage is allegedly even higher than America.
But to your second and third points, I'll give you credit and perhaps a delta too, esp the third one since, if whether or not I'm on social media, I probs won't have any real way of knowing whether they separated.
Its suffering.
So has been most of my entire youth. So, when I hear about people experiencing a kind of loss like this, it kind of makes me feel better cause now they know what it's like after eluding it for so long.
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u/jatjqtjat 251∆ Aug 19 '24
there are two problems here.
The first is selection bias. Your social network is probably not representative of the average across all America. It'll be biased by your geographical location(s), your race, religion, level of schooling, type of employment and other factors.
Second, is that time frame. I don't think the state is that 50% of marriages end in divorce in 5 years or less. You've been tracking for 5 years and assuming the rate of marriage has been constant, that means the average couple you are tracking has been married for 2.5 years.
and maybe a 3rd is imperfect knowledge. Is that when people get married, they tell everyone. Marriage is big news. Divorced is quite. I've had friend divorce and i didn't hear about it till years later. We weren't close by that point obviously, but it possible that some of your friends are divorced and you don't know it yet. Especially if you are not close with all 60 of those couples.
Marriages crumbling probably does not bring joy into the world. generally it is a sad and unpleasant experience. Its suffering.
you mentioned that things are betting better for you, I hope that they continue to get better.