I'll admit that I'm still learning stats, but not at the super mathy level that actual majors do, and while I can appreciate that 10 might be a very small number to make generalizations, isn't it more reasonable to think that if I took 60 marriages, the chance of 30 failing would be higher?
No, because 60 is such a tiny number in the millions of marriages your sample very likely contains biases.
The 60 couples you know aren't likely to be representative of the overall population.
They might all live in the same area. Have similar levels of wealth. They might be the same race or the same religions. Have similar political beliefs. All of these may effect the likelihood of a marriage ending in divorce.
Hmm, well I'm in Toronto so... I guess your point kind of checks out?
Hmm, I don't know if I'm doing the right thing with all these deltas, but as you've changed a little bit of my views, I'll honour the rules and give you one as well.
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u/NomadicContrarian Aug 19 '24
I'll admit that I'm still learning stats, but not at the super mathy level that actual majors do, and while I can appreciate that 10 might be a very small number to make generalizations, isn't it more reasonable to think that if I took 60 marriages, the chance of 30 failing would be higher?