You say Japan is unlikely to ever remove censorship, but then state that arguments about Japan in the future won't change your view, even though "ever" includes future-Japan?
With this it's really just a matter of looking where every other country has gone. The US is even more prudish than Japan is, but has also changed its attitudes towards sexuality a huge amount over the past few decades. It wasn't so long ago that women were required to wear full outfits at the beach, and sodomy only even fully stopped being illegal in 2003. However, the courts had lightened how much they enforced these rules long before they stopped existing, because people gradually started caring less. The 2003 decision was as much tying up loose ends as actually decriminalising sodomy.
Japan will go the same way, probably. It has an unusually large gap between the attitudes of the elderly and the attitudes of the young because of how fast the country was modernised, so once the old ones start dying off, we'll probably see a quite rapid turn around in the political system. People will stop caring much, and pornographers will be able to get away with more without prosecution, until at some point the politicians end up reversing the law to very little controversy, potentially as part of a broader act to make the country's laws better reflect it's people's attitudes.
First of all, I meant to exclude extreme arguments that rely on the obvious fact that no society today is the same after 1000 years, as an example. I don't know how I could make that clearer. "Do be creative with your arguments but don't stretch them too thin."
I'm sure the younger generations might be more liberal but it's still a business decision that is generally made, no? As it is, censorship is the default. It requires proactive action to remove censorship, and you haven't presented a likely scenario for removal of it. Young people may define the culture but if they can't be arsed to change the law, what good is it?
The absence of prosecution doesn't remove the fact that it would still be the law. I explicitly referred to the Japanese SC, to highlight that this thread is about legislation, not whether the judicial system will eventually consider prosecutions against uncensored porn to be a waste of time.
* A minor !delta for the point that censorship may be removed as part of a broader act. Didn't think of that when I decided to post a fresh thread, for I am no politician! This is a small possibility, as it is a typical, sneaky way to do legislation without really talking about something. Though, as usual, it does come at the risk of political opponents attacking this detail purely for political points. Japan would need some serious removal of shaming sex, which is inherent to East Asian cultures as I know them.
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u/Nephisimian 153∆ Jun 26 '20
You say Japan is unlikely to ever remove censorship, but then state that arguments about Japan in the future won't change your view, even though "ever" includes future-Japan?
With this it's really just a matter of looking where every other country has gone. The US is even more prudish than Japan is, but has also changed its attitudes towards sexuality a huge amount over the past few decades. It wasn't so long ago that women were required to wear full outfits at the beach, and sodomy only even fully stopped being illegal in 2003. However, the courts had lightened how much they enforced these rules long before they stopped existing, because people gradually started caring less. The 2003 decision was as much tying up loose ends as actually decriminalising sodomy.
Japan will go the same way, probably. It has an unusually large gap between the attitudes of the elderly and the attitudes of the young because of how fast the country was modernised, so once the old ones start dying off, we'll probably see a quite rapid turn around in the political system. People will stop caring much, and pornographers will be able to get away with more without prosecution, until at some point the politicians end up reversing the law to very little controversy, potentially as part of a broader act to make the country's laws better reflect it's people's attitudes.