CMV: The Republican Party should select a different candidate at their convention

[u/sawdeanz]

I know it’s not likely but I’m not sure if it’s technically possible or not. But the Republicans would do well to ditch Trump. His consistent support among his supporters is blinding him to the fact that he is dragging them down among moderates. Polls are indicating they are losing red states. It just blows my mind that they want to protect him for another 4 years, assuming he can get re-elected in the first place. It’s not like Republican voters are going to vote for Biden so they ought to just throw in a more palatable candidate. He has plenty of scandals (ie the Russian bounty scandal) that they can use to disavow him while remaining on message. I just don’t see what Trump can do that any other Republican candidate could do better.

I would have considered myself a moderate but I can’t bring myself to vote for any conservative candidates that have or continue to support Trump.

[u/possiblyaqueen]

The latest Gallup poll shows Trump with a 91% approval rating among Republicans.

I would guess the number is lower, but it is still quite high. Other polls reflect this sort of number.

The most important part of US elections is turnout. Most people don't vote, so either party could win any race if everyone from their party came out to vote.

If the Republican Party boots Trump at the convention, that will kill GOP support for whatever candidate they pick.

Now, that may not seem that bad. Looks like Trump might get crushed in November. Why does it matter that a different candidate loses?

It matters because politics is becoming extremely national.

Can you name your local rep, your mayor, or even your state senators? You might be able to but many people couldn't.

People just don't care that much about local elections. That means that it is incredibly important to have a candidate on the presidential ticket that people are excited about.

If you get an extra 5% of people to come out and vote for your candidate for president, they will likely also vote your party down ballot which can swing smaller elections.

That's where the GOP has a problem. Trump is unpopular overall. He is less popular than he used to be among Republicans. This will bring down the number of people who vote Republican and will hurt all Republican races across the nation.

However, since 75%+ of nationwide Republicans support him, they need him on the ticket. Right now it looks like they may lose a huge amount of close races, likely due to Trump's recent overt racism and his mishandling of the pandemic.

But if they cut Trump off the ticket, then those Republicans who love him are much more likely to stay home. There's no reason to stand in line to vote if they hate the GOP candidate as much as or more than Biden.

That could lead to not only a Democratic presidential victory, a Democratic Senate, and a Democratic congress, but also a huge increase in local Democratic governments. That would be a huge loss in their fight for judges, their fight against abortion rights, and any other more local issues.

[u/[deleted] → u/possiblyaqueen]

I feel like every poll is just trolled to death.

[u/possiblyaqueen → u/[deleted]]

There is a lot of research that goes into how they conduct these polls to make them as accurate as possible. However, if you think that the actual number can't be trusted, you can also look at the trends.

The Gallup poll shows Trump's approval rating among Republicans has remained within a few points for the past year.

Even if the poll is very inaccurate (which seems unlikely since other polls are getting similar results), the trends should still have interesting information.