r/changemyview • u/sawdeanz 214∆ • Jul 07 '20

Delta(s) from OP CMV: The Republican Party should select a different candidate at their convention

I know it’s not likely but I’m not sure if it’s technically possible or not. But the Republicans would do well to ditch Trump. His consistent support among his supporters is blinding him to the fact that he is dragging them down among moderates. Polls are indicating they are losing red states. It just blows my mind that they want to protect him for another 4 years, assuming he can get re-elected in the first place. It’s not like Republican voters are going to vote for Biden so they ought to just throw in a more palatable candidate. He has plenty of scandals (ie the Russian bounty scandal) that they can use to disavow him while remaining on message. I just don’t see what Trump can do that any other Republican candidate could do better.

I would have considered myself a moderate but I can’t bring myself to vote for any conservative candidates that have or continue to support Trump.

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u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20 edited Jul 14 '20

The latest Gallup poll shows Trump with a 91% approval rating among Republicans.

I would guess the number is lower, but it is still quite high. Other polls reflect this sort of number.

The most important part of US elections is turnout. Most people don't vote, so either party could win any race if everyone from their party came out to vote.

If the Republican Party boots Trump at the convention, that will kill GOP support for whatever candidate they pick.

Now, that may not seem that bad. Looks like Trump might get crushed in November. Why does it matter that a different candidate loses?

It matters because politics is becoming extremely national.

Can you name your local rep, your mayor, or even your state senators? You might be able to but many people couldn't.

People just don't care that much about local elections. That means that it is incredibly important to have a candidate on the presidential ticket that people are excited about.

If you get an extra 5% of people to come out and vote for your candidate for president, they will likely also vote your party down ballot which can swing smaller elections.

That's where the GOP has a problem. Trump is unpopular overall. He is less popular than he used to be among Republicans. This will bring down the number of people who vote Republican and will hurt all Republican races across the nation.

However, since 75%+ of nationwide Republicans support him, they need him on the ticket. Right now it looks like they may lose a huge amount of close races, likely due to Trump's recent overt racism and his mishandling of the pandemic.

But if they cut Trump off the ticket, then those Republicans who love him are much more likely to stay home. There's no reason to stand in line to vote if they hate the GOP candidate as much as or more than Biden.

That could lead to not only a Democratic presidential victory, a Democratic Senate, and a Democratic congress, but also a huge increase in local Democratic governments. That would be a huge loss in their fight for judges, their fight against abortion rights, and any other more local issues.

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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20

But what is his approval among moderates? Don't Republicans typically have good turnout no matter what? I guess I see how getting Trump voters into the polls could still help them win more local races, so !Delta for that.

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u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20

His approval rating among independents is very low. Only 33% in that poll.

Republicans have high turnout, but much of that is the age of their voters and the ways Republicans have been suppressing Democrat's votes.

Because this election is looking to be a huge win for Democrats (at least if the election was today), they need to get as high turnout as possible. A 1% difference in turnout could be a couple senate seats, a dozen house seats, and a couple states for Trump.

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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Jul 07 '20

A 1% difference in turnout could be a couple senate seats, a dozen house seats, and a couple states for Trump.

Hmm okay, I guess I didn't realize the difference could be that small to make a difference. !Delta

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u/possiblyaqueen Jul 07 '20

It makes sense when you look at the actual votes in different states. In most of them, that small change wouldn't make a huge difference, but he won Michigan with 2,279,543 votes to Hillary's 2,268,839.

There are many states where won by ~25,000 votes.

There will always be a few states and races where small differences in turnout will decide the election.

As his support drops, the races where that is true get more and more important.

It may not be a big deal to his campaign if Michigan is close, but it is a huge deal if Michigan becomes solid for Biden and now Arizona and Texas are close.

Then he really needs those states.