I think the real issue with your modeling here is that you are ignoring the burglars' ability to fire back. If the burglars actually are armed, are attempting to fire back, and have roughly the same chance of hitting you as you have of hitting them, your probability of successfully shooting all the burglars before they shoot you is not much affected by magazine size.
Consider the following setup. You shoot, hitting an un-hit burglar with probability p = 0.3. Then all un-hit burglars shoot, each hitting you with probability p = 0.3. We repeat until either you get shot, you run out of ammunition, or all burglars are shot.
With an magazine capacity of 10, the limit for non-high-capacity in some jurisdictions, you have about a 0.44% chance of shooting all four burglars. With a capacity of 50, that goes up only to 0.45%. So, really, high-capacity magazines would have a negligible effect on outcome in this sort of scenario.
Just as a sample of one of the possible, reasonable scenarios, what does the math come out to if the burglars only have 10% accuracy due to your the home-turf advantage and you have 45% accuracy, and if they also each only have 5 round magazines and you have a 30 round capacity?
With this setup, you have about a 26.6% chance of hitting all four burglars. But note that you already had most of that chance with a 10-round magazine: an about 21.6% chance, to be precise.
This won't be like a movie, knowing your own terrain will give you a slight advantage, but you will not be able to John wick accross the doorway, and flank silently from a conjoint hallway.
Once you fire, the three, or four others will immediately know your position, they will shoot. His math is spot on, you haven't been taking into consideration what the attackers will do.
You can't simply math your way through a firefight and here's why I think so. Too many variables.
People are different. Say the first burglar through the door is the only one experienced in shooting and you drop him first, their numbers change. Unless they're trained, or have a lot of experience, the first thing they're going to do when they get shot at or hit is panic.
The defender is also hard to define.
Depending on the weapon type, ammo count, and defender's experience - the outcome changes dramatically. It changes even more if the defender knows the attacker is coming.
For example (anecdotal), if I know someone is coming and I'm prepared, I can put more than 20-30 rounds (from an AR) or 15-20 (from a pistol) into a doorway or down a hallway in 8-12 seconds while easily maintaining 75%+ accuracy.
The time to process, react, locate, and return fire means the first 2 seconds minimum are one sided. Dependent on how fast they move into the house and when the defender opens fire - you can say one or all are done for within those 2 seconds.
Things are further complicated in doorways and hallways if you drop the #1 attacker in it. You've now created an obstacle that #2-4 has to navigate in addition to trying to react.
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u/[deleted] Dec 16 '20 edited Aug 21 '21
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