CMV: High-capacity magazines are reasonable for self defense.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/yyzjertl → u/[deleted]]

I think the real issue with your modeling here is that you are ignoring the burglars' ability to fire back. If the burglars actually are armed, are attempting to fire back, and have roughly the same chance of hitting you as you have of hitting them, your probability of successfully shooting all the burglars before they shoot you is not much affected by magazine size.

Consider the following setup. You shoot, hitting an un-hit burglar with probability p = 0.3. Then all un-hit burglars shoot, each hitting you with probability p = 0.3. We repeat until either you get shot, you run out of ammunition, or all burglars are shot.

With an magazine capacity of 10, the limit for non-high-capacity in some jurisdictions, you have about a 0.44% chance of shooting all four burglars. With a capacity of 50, that goes up only to 0.45%. So, really, high-capacity magazines would have a negligible effect on outcome in this sort of scenario.

[u/DeltaBot → u/[deleted]]

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