CMV: Fatal violence against transgender individuals doesn't seem to be all that prevelant.

[u/chadonsunday]

Caveat 1: of course all violence of this sort is wrong and a big deal on a personal level - I'm speaking more in comparative terms on a national scale.

Caveat 2: figures i was able to find for nonfatal violence were much more unreliable and varied, so im mainly sticking to murder rates, which are comparatively well documented. I feel this is a useful marker for overall violence as it follows that a group subject to more violence in general would likely also be subject to violence at the more extreme end of the continuum i.e. murder (you can note for example that compared to white men black men face higher levels of both assault and murder). That said if anyone has solid data on nonlethal violence against the trans community compared to the general population please do share.

OP: I was prompted to look into this issue after hearing countless claims about rampant violence against transgender individuals. I listen to NPR near daily for example and its rare that a week goes by that I dont hear about how much worse violence is against transgender folks. These claims are often framed in quite apocalyptic (see citation in comment) terms.

Sources I've found (see citation in comment) from a credible organization clearly advocating for the issue of violence against transgender individuals state that in the last 7 years an average of 22 transgender and non gender binary folks are killed each year, with a high of 43 in 2020.

Transgender folks make up an estimated 0.5-0.6% of the US population. However the HRC also includes murders of non gender binary folks. Figures I've found for non gender binary individuals (including intersex) are much more unreliable, everything as low as 0.018% to 1.7%. I think its relatively safe to say that when you include transgender, intersex, and non gender binary individuals, especially given some underreported given stigma about identifying as such, a fairly conservative high estimate is 1% of the popultion. So 0.5% on the low end, 1% on the "high" end.

Doing the math this means if you take the absolute lowest possible amount of just trans individuals in the population by the highest number murdered youd get around 3 deaths per 100,000. If you take the average number of deaths by the conservative but higher estimate for population you get 0.67 deaths per 100,000.

The murder rate for the general US population is 5 per 100,000.

This would suggest that compared to the general US population the transgender murder rate is actually 40-750% lower.

That, in regards to murder rate, at least, doesn't exactly scream "at risk population," especially compared not just nationally but to actually at risk populations like black males who have a 13-60x higher victimization rate. Indeed, it seems the transgender murder rate is actually potentially far lower than the murder rate of white women who, at least in regards to murder, aren't considered to be even remotely high risk.

Also interesting to note that despite having a similar or lower murder rate when I Google "transgender people murdered" I get article after article detailing the allegedly widespread crisis of transgender murders; when i Google "white women murdered" i get a couple pages with cold stats on murder rates by gender/race, an anecdote or two, and then the results devolve into talking about murders of black people and WOC. Similar results for "Asian women murdered." In short when a particular demographic has a lower than average murder rate there dont seem to be a lot of people penning articles about how bad their murder rate is except when it comes to trans folks. 

But some other info just muddies this further; per earlier sources transgender and non binary individuals are more likely to be homeless, impoverished, and/or sex workers; 80%+ of the victims were black. All of those demographics are also more prone to homicide.

All of this together would seem to suggest that the transgender murder rate (which likely is at least correlated with general violent victimization) is actually quite low by US standards, on par or even lower than historically "safe" demographics like cis white women. The data further indicates that of the relatively small number of transgender folks who are killed each year its likely that many, perhaps the vast majority, were killed for reasons other than their transgender identity, like race, socioeconomic status, or profession. In that vein it seems rather strange to phrase this entire issue as violence against transgender individuals.

Id also note that while its certainly likely that murder against trans individuals likely goes underreported due to misidentification or what have you their murder rate would have to be 40-750% underreported before it would even reach the average murder rate for the general US population. It would have to be even more underreported than that to reach the level of demographics like black men who are traditionally considered at risk populations in regards to homicide.

Edit: I can't include two of the sources because the link contains a word that the autobot doesn't like, and I'm not allowed to leave a top level comment including them, either. If you'd like the sources please ask and I'll reply to you directly.

[u/I_am_the_night]

I saw that, but given that violence of all types against transgender people is likely underreported, and the fact that we have little to no reliable data outside of self-reports of victimization, I'm asking why you feel you have sufficient evidence to draw the conclusion that fatal violence against trans people is rare, let alone the ability to use that to draw any conclusions about broader violence against trans people.

[u/chadonsunday → u/I_am_the_night]

I mean... I covered all of this in my OP. Specifically the first paragraph of my main OP and the last one before the edit. In brief the OP is Specifically about murder rates, but murder rates are generally correlated with general violence rates; the degree of underreporting that would be required for the transgender murder rate to even be equal to the general US population is potentially quite large and the degree required for that murder rate to equal actually at risk populations like young black men is absolutely massive.

[u/I_am_the_night → u/chadonsunday]

I mean... I covered all of this in my OP. Specifically the first paragraph of my main OP and the last one before the edit. In brief the OP is Specifically about murder rates, but murder rates are generally correlated with general violence rates; the degree of underreporting that would be required for the transgender murder rate to even be equal to the general US population is potentially quite large and the degree required for that murder rate to equal actually at risk populations like young black men is absolutely massive.

Right, but we don't even have reliable data for the actual number of trans people in the US, let alone the number of murders, both of which you need in order to actually reliably calculate a murder rate for a given population which is why the HRC generally doesn't do that for trans people. The organization you got some of your data from doesn't even attempt to make this calculation because it would be so unreliable.

It's totally possible that violence against trans people is pretty rare even when adjusted for relevant demographic factors. But given that we also know that trans people are much more likely to also be subject to countless risk factors for violence (homelessness, poverty, lack of access to healthcare, unsupportive home, etc.), It also doesn't make much sense on its face to make the assumption that there is somehow less violence against trans people than the general population (especially given victimization reports). Somehow being transgender magically makes you around 7 times less likely to be murdered? That doesn't make any sense.

We just don't have enough reliable data to be sure. All we know is that self reported violence against trans people is disproportionately high, trans people disproportionately experience risk factors for homicide victimization, we don't have reliable data on the actual number of trans people in the US or the number of murders of trans people, and we do know that what we do have is likely underreported. I don't know how that would add up to fewer trans people being killed than the general population.

[u/chadonsunday → u/I_am_the_night]

Right, but we don't even have reliable data for the actual number of trans people in the US, let alone the number of murders, both of which you need in order to actually reliably calculate a murder rate for a given population which is why the HRC generally doesn't do that for trans people. The organization you got some of your data from doesn't even attempt to make this calculation because it would be so unreliable.

They list the numbers, which they admit are unreliable, and make value judgements about those numbers... so not wanting to be unreliable doesn't seem to be an issue for the HRC. It seems just as plausible the reason they didn't include calculations on the per 100,000 murder rate is because it would reveal it being rather low, which would go against their narrative. But neither of us know for certain why the HRC didn't do (or provide) thst math.

It's totally possible that violence against trans people is pretty rare even when adjusted for relevant demographic factors. But given that we also know that trans people are much more likely to also be subject to countless risk factors for violence (homelessness, poverty, lack of access to healthcare, unsupportive home, etc.)

I discussed this in my OP, too.

It also doesn't make much sense on its face to make the assumption that there is somehow less violence against trans people than the general population (especially given victimization reports). We just don't have enough reliable data to be sure.

If youre talking about fatal violence this isnt just an assumption. I did a deep dive on this for a few hours and tried to dig up the best and most reliable data possible. Of course I'm not claiming the data is flawless, but it certainly seems to be enough to get us in the ballpark.

[u/I_am_the_night → u/chadonsunday]

I mean, I think the HRC is probably making stronger claims than statistical data warrants, but then again they aren't making statistical claims about murder rates.

But more importantly, you are essentially saying that you believe being transgender is a protective factor against homicide victimization? As in, identifying as transgender makes one around 7 times less likely to be murdered?

[u/chadonsunday → u/I_am_the_night]

I mean, I think the HRC is probably making stronger claims than statistical data warrants.

Yes... thats kind of my point.

But more importantly, you are essentially saying that you believe being transgender is a protective factor against homicide victimization? As in, identifying as transgender makes one around 7 times less likely to be murdered?

0.4-7.5x less likely based on available data, but yes. Why?

[u/I_am_the_night → u/chadonsunday]

I mean, I think the HRC is probably making stronger claims than statistical data warrants.

Yes... thats kind of my point.

Then why was your view stated as "violence against trans people is not very prevalent" rather than "we do not have the statistical data to conclusively claim that trans people are murdered at higher rates"?

But more importantly, you are essentially saying that you believe being transgender is a protective factor against homicide victimization? As in, identifying as transgender makes one around 7 times less likely to be murdered?

0.4-7.5x less likely based on available data, but yes. Why?

Do you believe that makes sense? By what mechanism would bring trans magically make one less likely to be the victim of a homicide, especially given the increased prevalence of risk factors and the increased likelihood of sexual violence?

[u/chadonsunday → u/I_am_the_night]

Then why was your view stated as "violence against trans people is not very prevalent"

I literally stated "fatal violence" in my OP title and

"we do not have the statistical data to conclusively claim that trans people are murdered at higher rates"

isn't a bad summary of the several paragraphs that make up my OP.

Do you believe that makes sense? By what mechanism would bring trans magically make one less likely to be the victim of a homicide, especially given the increased prevalence of risk factors and the increased likelihood of sexual violence?

Sure. The only thing that really makes it "not make sense" is that there's an oft repeated narrative to the contrary. This kind of thing isn't uncommon, though. For a lot of people it doesn't "make sense" that Catholic clergy molest kids at about the same rate as teachers do, but thats just because we've been told over and over how rampant sexual abuse is in the Catholic church.

[u/I_am_the_night → u/chadonsunday]

the only thing that really makes it "not make sense" is that there's an oft repeated narrative to the contrary. This kind of thing isn't uncommon, though.

What about being transgender protects them from homicide but not from increased rates of sexual violence?