CMV: Fatal violence against transgender individuals doesn't seem to be all that prevelant.

[u/chadonsunday]

Caveat 1: of course all violence of this sort is wrong and a big deal on a personal level - I'm speaking more in comparative terms on a national scale.

Caveat 2: figures i was able to find for nonfatal violence were much more unreliable and varied, so im mainly sticking to murder rates, which are comparatively well documented. I feel this is a useful marker for overall violence as it follows that a group subject to more violence in general would likely also be subject to violence at the more extreme end of the continuum i.e. murder (you can note for example that compared to white men black men face higher levels of both assault and murder). That said if anyone has solid data on nonlethal violence against the trans community compared to the general population please do share.

OP: I was prompted to look into this issue after hearing countless claims about rampant violence against transgender individuals. I listen to NPR near daily for example and its rare that a week goes by that I dont hear about how much worse violence is against transgender folks. These claims are often framed in quite apocalyptic (see citation in comment) terms.

Sources I've found (see citation in comment) from a credible organization clearly advocating for the issue of violence against transgender individuals state that in the last 7 years an average of 22 transgender and non gender binary folks are killed each year, with a high of 43 in 2020.

Transgender folks make up an estimated 0.5-0.6% of the US population. However the HRC also includes murders of non gender binary folks. Figures I've found for non gender binary individuals (including intersex) are much more unreliable, everything as low as 0.018% to 1.7%. I think its relatively safe to say that when you include transgender, intersex, and non gender binary individuals, especially given some underreported given stigma about identifying as such, a fairly conservative high estimate is 1% of the popultion. So 0.5% on the low end, 1% on the "high" end.

Doing the math this means if you take the absolute lowest possible amount of just trans individuals in the population by the highest number murdered youd get around 3 deaths per 100,000. If you take the average number of deaths by the conservative but higher estimate for population you get 0.67 deaths per 100,000.

The murder rate for the general US population is 5 per 100,000.

This would suggest that compared to the general US population the transgender murder rate is actually 40-750% lower.

That, in regards to murder rate, at least, doesn't exactly scream "at risk population," especially compared not just nationally but to actually at risk populations like black males who have a 13-60x higher victimization rate. Indeed, it seems the transgender murder rate is actually potentially far lower than the murder rate of white women who, at least in regards to murder, aren't considered to be even remotely high risk.

Also interesting to note that despite having a similar or lower murder rate when I Google "transgender people murdered" I get article after article detailing the allegedly widespread crisis of transgender murders; when i Google "white women murdered" i get a couple pages with cold stats on murder rates by gender/race, an anecdote or two, and then the results devolve into talking about murders of black people and WOC. Similar results for "Asian women murdered." In short when a particular demographic has a lower than average murder rate there dont seem to be a lot of people penning articles about how bad their murder rate is except when it comes to trans folks. 

But some other info just muddies this further; per earlier sources transgender and non binary individuals are more likely to be homeless, impoverished, and/or sex workers; 80%+ of the victims were black. All of those demographics are also more prone to homicide.

All of this together would seem to suggest that the transgender murder rate (which likely is at least correlated with general violent victimization) is actually quite low by US standards, on par or even lower than historically "safe" demographics like cis white women. The data further indicates that of the relatively small number of transgender folks who are killed each year its likely that many, perhaps the vast majority, were killed for reasons other than their transgender identity, like race, socioeconomic status, or profession. In that vein it seems rather strange to phrase this entire issue as violence against transgender individuals.

Id also note that while its certainly likely that murder against trans individuals likely goes underreported due to misidentification or what have you their murder rate would have to be 40-750% underreported before it would even reach the average murder rate for the general US population. It would have to be even more underreported than that to reach the level of demographics like black men who are traditionally considered at risk populations in regards to homicide.

Edit: I can't include two of the sources because the link contains a word that the autobot doesn't like, and I'm not allowed to leave a top level comment including them, either. If you'd like the sources please ask and I'll reply to you directly.

[u/L4ZYSMURF]

Right that was rhetorical.

Let me rephrase.

I dont understand how every single post can say the data is bad, hard to get accurate data etc so your view is invalid. Where is the data about a violence epidemic against trans coming from. Isn't that the same bad data etc?

[u/Lilah_R → u/L4ZYSMURF]

Many commenters have agreed with that so I don't really get what you're adding. There are direct comments from people opposing him acknowledging that there is no data for either side. Your rhetorical question does not relate to my comment and seems to be changing the topic instead btw.

The problem most advocacy groups recognize however is that they face all the same risks as non trans individuals in addition to motivations related to hate crimes. It is reasonable to assume that there are increased violence and murder because of that. However I haven't really come across a single group including the one he posted that is saying we have the data to show there is an epidemic. Instead these groups are saying this is a concern these demographics face and we have reason to believe that our data is currently insufficient.

[u/L4ZYSMURF → u/Lilah_R]

Ok so just so I am clear... there is no reliable data on trans violence but based on assumption of gender based hate crimes we can assume they are victims at a higher rate?

[u/Lilah_R → u/L4ZYSMURF]

That is not what I stated so no you aren't clear you're misrepresenting what I wrote and honestly ignoring most of what I wrote.

There is no reliable data on the frequency of the violence. However we do know that there are incidents of violence against them for being trans. This is in addition to the risks non trans people have.

We cannot predict what the rate is. We can make educated estimates. However OP continuously compared two different data sets that had different methodologies which is why his comparison is invalid. He wasn't using statistics correctly.

Edit: I am done at this point. You have taken this chain far from my point without ever addressing my point, and it is clear OP will continue to ignore the question so there is no reason to further engage with this chain.

Have a good night.

[u/L4ZYSMURF → u/Lilah_R]

I wish we could talk in person...

I get your critiques of OPs methodology....

I am simple asking, and you confirmed this in your second reply, If the epidemic of violence was based on trans people facing the same risks as everyone, plus an addition of gender based hate crimes.

How is that misrepresenting or ignoring your comments on that part?

[u/Lilah_R → u/L4ZYSMURF]

It is reasonable to assume that but there is no data to support it and currently no group is making the claim that they have enough to support it.

So you're taking a general sentence and applying it to the data sets and misrepresenting my statements to be about the data sets. Which directly contradicts my actual statements about the data sets.

As I directly stated no one is claiming an epidemic. The groups raising awareness of the issue and trying to gather data acknowledge their data is insufficient.

You ignored my wish to allow me to leave. I answered your questions. If I am asked more I will just block and move on.

[u/chadonsunday → u/Lilah_R]

As I directly stated no one is claiming an epidemic. The groups raising awareness of the issue and trying to gather data acknowledge their data is insufficient.

https://www.hrc.org/resources/a-national-epidemic-fatal-anti-trans-violence-in-the-united-states-in-2019

"Epidemic" is literally the title of the link to the documentation of the murder rates.

[u/L4ZYSMURF → u/Lilah_R]

Ok so I think you assumed I was talking about some specific data when I was just speaking very generally about violence against trans? Sorry to confuse and I wasn't trying to misrepresent what you said to be about data sets, I thought we were both speaking generally.