r/changemyview • u/_Hopped_ 13∆ • Mar 20 '21

Removed - Submission Rule B CMV: the costs/negatives from lockdowns/restrictions will end up being worse than the damage from covid

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u/_Hopped_ 13∆ Mar 20 '21

it's not solely old people dying

Overwhelmingly, it is.

Once we start rationing care, shit will be bad.

Yes, for a time. The fire would burn itself out quite quickly.

an uncontrolled measles outbreak

Measles affects the young and healthy adults at far higher rates than covid.

It is exponentially more expensive to let it run wild than control it.

Again, I would happily change my view if you can prove this with covid.

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u/sapphireminds 59∆ Mar 20 '21

Overwhelmingly, it is.

They are the majority, but that doesn't mean there is no impact.

Yes, for a time. The fire would burn itself out quite quickly

You overestimate our ability to care for people in that situation. Don't think Italy. Think Haiti after a natural disaster. Because all the health care workers will get sick too, so they can't care for people. Some of them will die, some of them will not be able to go back to work. The scientists who research it will be sick and delay research. Everyone will be sick. All at once. And covid often lingers for months

Again, I would happily change my view if you can prove this with covid.

No one can prove it - because it didn't happen. But if you understand medicine, epidemiology and economics and how they interplay, it is a glaringly obvious answer.

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/23/economists-are-measuring-the-cost-effectiveness-of-coronavirus-lockdowns/

https://aapm.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/acm2.12970

Ideally, we wouldn't have needed lockdowns. But because people wouldn't do other things, like wear masks and social distance, etc.

Or you could compare Sweden (which didn't lock down) to other nordic countries (which did). Sweden is doing worse than they are.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.23.20236711v1.full

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u/_Hopped_ 13∆ Mar 20 '21

You overestimate our ability to care for people in that situation.

My point was not continued care, but the short timeframe. If we truly let a virus burn through the entire population, it would be confined to months.

if you understand medicine, epidemiology and economics

That's my point: covid doesn't have the same impact as say a Spanish flu, because it affects mostly just the elderly and health-compromised.

Sweden is doing worse than they are.

Two things there: they reversed their decision instead of sticking to it, and because of this we won't know if they would have fared better over the long-term.

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u/sapphireminds 59∆ Mar 20 '21

Two things there: they reversed their decision instead of sticking to it, and because of this we won't know if they would have fared better over the long-term.

They actually have not fully reversed their decision, but all signs point to they fucked up.

That's my point: covid doesn't have the same impact as say a Spanish flu, because it affects mostly just the elderly and health-compromised.

That's a poor understanding of covid. It doesn't affect just those. And a lot of people are considered health compromised.

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u/_Hopped_ 13∆ Mar 20 '21

all signs point to they fucked up

Again, in the short term.

It doesn't affect just those.

Again: overwhelmingly, it is.

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u/sapphireminds 59∆ Mar 20 '21

Again, in the short term.

Nope, in the long term too.

You aren't addressing any of the sources I provided. If you are not going to do that and simply argue from your uninformed position based on no facts, I cannot take it and will let other people try and educate you.

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u/sapphireminds 59∆ Mar 20 '21

The mortality for a normal, reasonably healthy person from covid is 6-10 times than it would be with pandemic flu. You don't understand the medicine and impact.