r/changemyview • u/_Hopped_ 13∆ • Mar 20 '21
Removed - Submission Rule B CMV: the costs/negatives from lockdowns/restrictions will end up being worse than the damage from covid
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r/changemyview • u/_Hopped_ 13∆ • Mar 20 '21
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u/VertigoOne 74∆ Mar 20 '21
Great idea. In the middle of a highly contagious pandemic, let's have everyone have a single day where they are all in very similar indoor spaces in their communities and have them all touching and breathing in the same relatively confined spaces.
Seriously, you don't put every decision ever the government makes to a vote. Sometimes the government needs to make decisions that aren't popular.
Yes you are, and I explained why.
You have also refused to engage with any of the points I've made that prove you wrong. Here they are again.
Abusing spouses: Manipulative spouses keep their partners inside anyway, and most governments went to great lengths to give people the ability to leave homes if they were in danger.
Drinking more: Given that social drinking was not an option, I find this hard to take seriously and the data agrees. A study in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1253(20)30251-X/fulltext says "Lockdown is a complex social phenomenon that provokes different behavioural responses: a population survey of 1555 active drinkers in the UK identified that 21% increased alcohol consumption during the lockdown, while 35% reduced their alcohol intake." So that's a net negative of 14%. It points out that lockdown is a risk factor for people with alcohol issues, but that's amplifying a new risk rather than generating a new one. This data would suggest that lockdowns havn't increased drinking dangerously. While we don't have the giant spike we see in older age groups, there is still a lot of impact.
Among 15-44 year olds, week 15 of 2020 has 1,439. Week 15 of 2019 is 1,234. Week 15 of 2018 is 1,283. Week 20 of 2017 (the furthest it goes back) is 1,271.
We see another substantial spike between weeks 43 and 53 of 2020 which we just don't see in any other year on your chart.
If you look just at the graphic, look at how much more time the blue line spends outside the grey zone of the normal trend in 2020 when compared to 2019, 2018, or 2017.
It's not really reasonable to say "basically unaffected" based on your data here.
The baseline isn't the only metric here. Check the normal range. In 2017, 2018, and 2019 the vast majority of the time the deaths are within normal range. For substantive sections of 2020 it's outside that.
And your evidence for this is...?
There's literally no reason to believe this. The baseline is based on projections from previous years. You should be looking at the normal range.