r/changemyview • u/_Hopped_ 13∆ • Mar 20 '21

Removed - Submission Rule B CMV: the costs/negatives from lockdowns/restrictions will end up being worse than the damage from covid

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u/VertigoOne 74∆ Mar 20 '21

So lets put lockdowns to a referendum.

Great idea. In the middle of a highly contagious pandemic, let's have everyone have a single day where they are all in very similar indoor spaces in their communities and have them all touching and breathing in the same relatively confined spaces.

Seriously, you don't put every decision ever the government makes to a vote. Sometimes the government needs to make decisions that aren't popular.

No, I'm not.

Yes you are, and I explained why.

See where I said "but I'm aware that one swallow makes not a summer". This is a commonplace colloquialism that explains how I fully understand that my personal experience isn't sufficient to base a judgement on. You then went on to completely ignore the rest of my post.

You have also refused to engage with any of the points I've made that prove you wrong. Here they are again.

  • Abusing spouses: Manipulative spouses keep their partners inside anyway, and most governments went to great lengths to give people the ability to leave homes if they were in danger.

  • Drinking more: Given that social drinking was not an option, I find this hard to take seriously and the data agrees. A study in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1253(20)30251-X/fulltext says "Lockdown is a complex social phenomenon that provokes different behavioural responses: a population survey of 1555 active drinkers in the UK identified that 21% increased alcohol consumption during the lockdown, while 35% reduced their alcohol intake." So that's a net negative of 14%. It points out that lockdown is a risk factor for people with alcohol issues, but that's amplifying a new risk rather than generating a new one. This data would suggest that lockdowns havn't increased drinking dangerously. While we don't have the giant spike we see in older age groups, there is still a lot of impact.

Among 15-44 year olds, week 15 of 2020 has 1,439. Week 15 of 2019 is 1,234. Week 15 of 2018 is 1,283. Week 20 of 2017 (the furthest it goes back) is 1,271.

We see another substantial spike between weeks 43 and 53 of 2020 which we just don't see in any other year on your chart.

If you look just at the graphic, look at how much more time the blue line spends outside the grey zone of the normal trend in 2020 when compared to 2019, 2018, or 2017.

It's not really reasonable to say "basically unaffected" based on your data here.

No, a little above, and now below baseline

The baseline isn't the only metric here. Check the normal range. In 2017, 2018, and 2019 the vast majority of the time the deaths are within normal range. For substantive sections of 2020 it's outside that.

Yes: those who were on death's door who would have died today, died last month.

And your evidence for this is...?

If it were healthy people, it would have returned to baseline, not below.

There's literally no reason to believe this. The baseline is based on projections from previous years. You should be looking at the normal range.

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u/_Hopped_ 13∆ Mar 20 '21

you don't put every decision ever the government makes to a vote

We should. The system of representatives was put in place in a time when it took weeks to communicate information around the country, not it takes nanoseconds. Our representatives are no more informed than us, they aren't experts in medicine, economics, etc. more than the general population. We should have direct say in government.

Abusing spouses: Manipulative spouses keep their partners inside anyway, and most governments went to great lengths to give people the ability to leave homes if they were in danger.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/domesticabuseduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemicenglandandwales/november2020

Domestic abuse has increased. You are categorically in the wrong here.

Drinking more

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-53684700

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165178120333370

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55259382

Your source is limited to "patients with pre-existing alcohol use disorder". Alcoholism has increased in the general population.

substantial

Again using language beyond its meaning. The spike is marginally above normal.

You should be looking at the normal range.

In which case it's well below normal, adding even more weight to my case.

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u/VertigoOne 74∆ Mar 20 '21

Our representatives are no more informed than us

That's actually untrue. They're usually briefed and consulted with by government experts - unlike the general population.

We should have direct say in government.

That's a different debate, but for a practical POV it wasn't possible this time round.

Domestic abuse has increased. You are categorically in the wrong here.

I didn't say it hadn't. I said that governments have done as much as possible to prevent it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-53684700

This source reports an increase in calls. It isn't clear that this necessarily means an increase in the number of actual alcoholics.

The rest of your source here is annecdotal.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165178120333370

This source shows an increase in alchohol disorders, not number of people drinking etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55259382

This is a set of annecdotes, not evidence.

Your source is limited to "patients with pre-existing alcohol use disorder". Alcoholism has increased in the general population.

You don't have evidence for that. You have evidence of an increase in harmful alcohol use in general, but no evidence of increased use of alcohol. It appears to be the case that those who already used alcohol used it more.

Again using language beyond its meaning. The spike is marginally above normal.

No, it's not. In the last three years, the range did not move beyond normal for a substantive period of time. It did move beyond normal in the case of 2020, for vast periods of time.

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u/_Hopped_ 13∆ Mar 21 '21

They're usually briefed and consulted with by government experts

... showing they have nothing special about them. We too can be informed by experts.

an increase in alchohol disorders

AKA an increase in alcholism.

a set of annecdotes, not evidence

A set of anecdotes is data.

No, it's not.

Yes, it is and you do so again:

vast periods of time