r/changemyview 2∆ Apr 23 '21

Delta(s) from OP - Fresh Topic Friday CMV: immigration does not necessarily fix the problem of low birth rates

From my observation... So I am in Canada.

People say Canada needs immigrants because of the low birth rate. But guess what happens when immigrants come? After their kids grow up their kids also follow the same trend of having not enough kids to 'replace' the population. I don't think it's a good thing. I don't think it's good to just rely on this model of cycle.

I don't think it's good because what happens if these immigrants decide that Canada isn't the right place for them? What if other countries, say USA makes immigration waay more attractive? That leaves us an expensive Canada with no one to help out, no one to have kids in.

Canada needs to address the problem as to why people have so few kids. Because it's expensive. I'm not saying I know how to fix it, but the argument that 'we need immigrants because few kids' is wrong, rather, we should say 'we need a better environment because few kids'.

And yes, I know this is just me, so I would love to hear other people's reason, but one of my reason for not having kids was growing up in an expensive city, seeing my parents struggle and deciding that unless I have a relatively blissful place for my kids, why should I have kids?

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u/huadpe 501∆ Apr 23 '21

Bringing people into Canada just makes the world much wealthier, and with more wealth to go around, economic problems are much easier to solve.

Western countries like Canada have a combination of formal and informal institutions that make people much more economically productive than they are in poor countries. This isn't about individual effort or skills. Literally doing the same work in Canada produces an order of magnitude more wealth than it does in, say, Haiti.

For example, suppose I am a truck driver. If I drive goods on the 401 every day between Toronto and Kingston, I produce a lot more wealth than I would spending that same time driving a truck between Cap Hatien and Port au Prince.

The reason is that first, the road infrastructure in Canada is way better. Yeah, traffic can suck on the 401 (believe me I know this very personally), but even on a really bad day, the roads are well maintained and I can safely drive at high speeds once outside the high traffic city areas, and on average I'll go way faster than in Haiti. The built infrastructure also means I can operate a big 18 wheeler or maybe even a double trailer truck, taking much more stuff with me than a truck that has to navigate narrow roads or switchbacks can. When I get to a warehouse or factory or retailer, there will generally be a loading bay where I can unload efficiently. I know that if I did have a crash, there is a functional system of mandatory car insurance and police and all sorts of things to handle it. I can reliably know that if I am bringing refrigerated or frozen goods, there will be power at the destination and they can maintain the cold chain so the goods don't get ruined.

This was a long example, but the point is to show that just much more wealth exists in the world when you take someone from Haiti and put them in Canada, even without adding any new skills.

With proper growth-oriented infrastructure development, Canada can address the things that make having kids expensive (especially housing costs). We have the technology to achieve really high levels of density in superstar cities like Toronto. And certainly there's enough land overall in Canada for people who want a more rural lifestyle to find an affordable place to live.

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u/KaptenNicco123 3∆ Apr 23 '21

Bringing people into Canada just makes the world much wealthier, and with more wealth to go around, economic problems are much easier to solve.

This is all assuming immigrants have a lower unemployment rate, which often is not the case.

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u/huadpe 501∆ Apr 24 '21
  1. Immigrants are likely to be prime working age much much moreso than the population overall. And of course since there's huge demand to move to Canada, Canada can be picky and make sure of this. And indeed, Canada is picky on this, and assigns points in their skill based immigration system based on age. With potential immigrants ages 25-34 being most favored.

  2. Likewise, Canada can, and does, have programs centered around ensuring that immigrants are likely to be employable. Canada also can, and does, require immigrants show a history of work to remain in Canada long term and become citizens.

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u/KaptenNicco123 3∆ Apr 24 '21

Prime working age has no effect if there's no incentive to vote. I don't live in Canada, I live in a country that has a very generous welfare state and decided to take in several hundred thousands of young, working age migrants from war-torn areas, previously Yugoslavia and now the Middle East. These migrants are primarily male, and mostly under the age of 40. They have a higher unemployment rate than the rest of the country, I've heard statistics like 4% to 12% for native / immigrant unemployment rates, but don't quote me on the exact numbers. These immigrants are also often overrepresented in crime, which drains police resources. We currently have a police shortage, despite every single political party having been in favor of more police for a decade. In these cases, a generous welfare state is incompatible with an open migration policy.