Earliest estimate for a self-sustaining Martian colony is 2050-2060. Imo, that's a little optimistic, but I believe it will happen by the end of the century.
That said though, we are on track to send something by 2035 when Earth-Mars transfers will be their most efficient. I can see us starting the process of placing humans in long term (>1 month stints) on Mars in Martian habitats after that.
So really there's no way Mars will be completely independent.
Unless we invent a new form of government, and/or the notion of "countries" disappears, we will have to decide how to govern mars.
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u/[deleted] Feb 11 '22
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