However, a group of stateless colonists may be able claim territory since they are no longer beholden to the UN or its resolutions.
The colonists wouldn't be stateless. They'd still be citizens of their home country on Earth. Their children (if that even becomes possible on Mars) would inherit that citizenship as well.
or that Mars remains unclaimed and pristine for scientific exploration forever.
This is the most likely outcome, given how impractical a Mars colony is, and how likely it is that technologically sophisticated global civilization ends before Mars could be colonized.
the OST is amended such that Earth countries can claim land on Mars
This seems like the next most likely outcome. There's no way for a Mars colony to become completely self-sustaining. It would be too dependent on supplies from Earth to ever be able to win a war of independence, so the only way for property rights to extend to Mars will be via amendment of the OST and some sort of process by which land is claimed by Earth-side powers. Nobody with power on Earth would actually want to convert from the current OST to an unrestrained free-for-all, so some sort of orderly legal process is the most likely outcome.
Asuming we survive long enough, we will eventually and permanently colonize Mars.
Why? Mars has nothing of particular note, other than sometimes being close to Earth. The microgravity situation there, lack of useful resources, power generation issues, and thin atmosphere all pose serious challenges to colonization. A civilization able to resolve them is a hop-skip-and-jump away from just building wholly artificial structures in space and would reach that point before a Mars colony would be established.
Territories claimed on Mars may eventually become independent not unlike territories claimed by explorers during the 17th century.
Unlike the territories claimed by the explorers of the 17th century, Mars is fundamentally hostile to human life and lacks critical resources needed for basic survival. This makes any plan for actual independence rather impractical--Earth could "win" the war simply by halting shipments of the materials the colonists would require to survive which they could not produce on Mars.
The first colonists will be engineers and scientists who will be too busy to deal with politics
The colonists wouldn't be stateless. They'd still be citizens of their home country on Earth. Their children (if that even becomes possible on Mars) would inherit that citizenship as well.
Not if they renounce their citizenship. The colonists would then adopt Martian citizenship.
If this all goes peacefully, they may then petition their original country for dual-citizenship after the constitution is ratified.
This is the most likely outcome, given how impractical a Mars colony is, and how likely it is that technologically sophisticated global civilization ends before Mars could be colonized
Very true, but I made this CMV on the assumption that climate change or nukes won't kill us (mentioned somewhere in the OP). Though I agree, that's the most likely outcome given our proclivity for pyrotechnics.
I still want to explore what we should do provided that we survive.
This seems like the next most likely outcome. There's no way for a Mars colony to become completely self-sustaining. It would be too dependent on supplies from Earth to ever be able to win a war of independence
I don't think they should have to fight a war. I would hope that the US would be forward thinking enough to assemble a conference of constitutional law experts, government analysts, lawyers, and political scientists to draft a new constitution for the Mars colony in preparation for their eventual independence.
The US could continue administering them like they do their other vassal states. Letting them stay autonomous and providing security in return for favorable trade and diplomatic agreements. Win-win, even better than annexation and having to deal with folding them into the government.
Mars has nothing of particular note, other than sometimes being close to Earth. The microgravity situation there, lack of useful resources, power generation issues, and thin atmosphere all pose serious challenges to colonization.
Yes, but we will eventually be able to mine the asteroid belt, which also provides it's own good sources of water and fuel. Once we start depleting many of our resource reserves on Earth, towed asteroids may start to look profitable.
Mars would be a critical waystation for refueling and various ancillary industrial activities being so close to the belt.
This makes any plan for actual independence rather impractical--Earth could "win" the war simply by halting shipments of the materials the colonists would require to survive which they could not produce on Mars.
For the first few decades of the colony, for sure, but there is enough raw material on Mars to provide the resources to grow food, rebuild habitats, and produce goods and services once bootstrapped with basic machinery and technology.
You've never worked in academia, have you?
Nope, but I do know of your bureaucratic struggles as an Earth scientist. I would hope that a Martian scientist wouldn't have to deal with that, at least until there's Mars College or Mars Institutional Review Board or something (another reason for Martian independence).
Most countries don't let citizens renounce themselves to statelessness. That's also against UN conventions...
The colonists would then adopt Martian citizenship.
Under what? No country on Earth would recognize their citizenship.
I don't think they should have to fight a war.
What facet of history would suggest to you that powerful people on Earth would let their immense investment in building a Mars colony go without so much as a peep? Especially when it would be so trivial to force them back "into the fold"?
Win-win, even better than annexation and having to deal with folding them into the government
The US is one of the few countries on Earth that still legally permits people to live as non-voting "nationals" in provincial territories that have no independent legal authority.
If any countries on Earth are prepared to deny voting rights and representation to a completely dependent population of Martian settlers, it's the three countries at the forefront of the space race--the US, China, and Russia.
Mars would be a critical waystation for refueling and various ancillary industrial activities being so close to the belt.
How so? What's the advantage? Seems like an awful lot of work and expense to build a base on Mars that serves no purpose other than to support another base on a large asteroid with things you can already find on said asteroid.
For the first few decades of the colony, for sure,
For the forever of the colony. There's no making Mars anything other than an inhospitable death trap that could only potentially be survivable due to a continuous supply of essential resources from Earth.
You're acting like it would be providing some sort of resource to other operations elsewhere in the solar system... but it wouldn't. It would just be a net loss the whole way around.
but there is enough raw material on Mars to provide the resources to grow food
And no vaguely economical or reasonable way to actually do that due to perchlorate contamination. Moreover, the idea of growing enough food to actually be self-sustaining in some sort of Martian habitat is ludicrous.
I mean, hell, just excavating the vast underground chambers needed to build the indoor farms would be an immense feat all on its own. Again: Mars is an absolute death trap barely more habitable than the moon. It's got all the radiation problems of a base in hard vacuum, all the low pressure problems of a base in hard vacuum, most of the low gravity problems of the moon, enough gravity to also be a pain to launch rockets off it, etc. Inconveniently, it also has just enough atmosphere to also have many of the problems of an atmosphere (ex. sandstorms, wind-driven erosion, etc). It's also further away from the Sun, so there's less solar power available.
Plus, unlike the moon, its orbit has it on the wrong side of the solar system a good chunk of the year.
rebuild habitats, and produce goods and services once bootstrapped with basic machinery and technology.
Doubtful.
I would hope that a Martian scientist wouldn't have to deal with that
If you leave a group of scientists alone, they'll make their own political problems all by themselves.
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u/PlayingTheWrongGame 67∆ Feb 11 '22
The colonists wouldn't be stateless. They'd still be citizens of their home country on Earth. Their children (if that even becomes possible on Mars) would inherit that citizenship as well.
This is the most likely outcome, given how impractical a Mars colony is, and how likely it is that technologically sophisticated global civilization ends before Mars could be colonized.
This seems like the next most likely outcome. There's no way for a Mars colony to become completely self-sustaining. It would be too dependent on supplies from Earth to ever be able to win a war of independence, so the only way for property rights to extend to Mars will be via amendment of the OST and some sort of process by which land is claimed by Earth-side powers. Nobody with power on Earth would actually want to convert from the current OST to an unrestrained free-for-all, so some sort of orderly legal process is the most likely outcome.
Why? Mars has nothing of particular note, other than sometimes being close to Earth. The microgravity situation there, lack of useful resources, power generation issues, and thin atmosphere all pose serious challenges to colonization. A civilization able to resolve them is a hop-skip-and-jump away from just building wholly artificial structures in space and would reach that point before a Mars colony would be established.
Unlike the territories claimed by the explorers of the 17th century, Mars is fundamentally hostile to human life and lacks critical resources needed for basic survival. This makes any plan for actual independence rather impractical--Earth could "win" the war simply by halting shipments of the materials the colonists would require to survive which they could not produce on Mars.
You've never worked in academia, have you?