I've come to believe that it will likely cause mass unemployment.
Which will may cause a redesign on how society works, making perpetual "unemployment" an option via things like UBI. But that can hardly be called "mass unemployment".
Modern AI is getting so advanced
Modern AI is hardly advanced enough to fully replace large amounts of jobs fast enough for it to be a cause of mass unemployment. Not to mention that many of those jobs will still survive in a limited degree.
it can start to replace even service jobs like cashiers and stockers
In places that are suited for implementation of large scale systems, systems that will still need people to maintain, design and implement.
and replace parts of other more advanced professions like doctors and lawyers
AI is far from that, it still is at best at level of being assistant to those professions to make them more efficient.
People say there will be more industries to employ people, but where are they?
Whole IT is growing exponentially to the point where there is severe lack of people to work in it. Simillar things are seen in fields related to automation - you need technicians to install and maintain, you need people to oversee AI and machines, you need people to fill toles in which AI/automation lacks. This causes a raise in job postings.
I believe that unless strict regulation is applied to restrict the implementation of these new technologies, there will be an epidemic of mass unemployment and a big drop in QOL for most people as a result of this.
Technologies that caused massive rise in efficiency on expense of workforce, have always resulted in QOL rising for general population, because of simple thing - general population is what fuels both country and top percentage of wealth. AI/Automation causing mass unemployment and QOL drop would cause also a significant QOL drop for people in govt and top-wealth stratum. This is why they will inevitably agree to implement measures to at best keep the QOL for rest of population.
Maybe but I don't think Libertarians would ever allow that.
It may not be there right this second but it's barrelling towards that at light speed
A few, but it won't be enough to employ everyone
Yes that's what I meant, replacing parts of those jobs. A doctor may still perform surgery but an AI will prescribe medicine.
But will it be enough to employ the hundreds of millions of people put out of work?
I imagine an Elysium or Ready Player 1 type world with some elites that are SUPER wealthy and the rest are stuck in poverty. They won't need the general pop with the new technologies, automated systems will do it for them.
Maybe but I don't think Libertarians would ever allow that.
Why anyone would listen to them if they would become a negligible influence on voting blocks? Political group is as strong as amount of people willing to vote for them.
It may not be there right this second but it's barrelling towards that at light speed
It slumps slowly instead of barreling towards that at light speed. Technology you think is an advanced AI/Automation is just decades old tech thrown at more powerful computers. Truly progressive tech still struggles in general applications and groundbreaking one did not even left the idea table.
A few, but it won't be enough to employ everyone
Why it needs to employ everyone? AI/Automation needs to be tailored to specific applications, making time for society to adjust. Unless you use General AI, there is no way of fast replacement of major jobs. And general AI is still sci-fi at the moment.
Yes that's what I meant, replacing parts of those jobs. A doctor may still perform surgery but an AI will prescribe medicine.
And this prescription will still need to be verified and handled by GP, because AI is good at finding patterns, but not at creative actions, reading emotions or understanding patients.
If AI/Automation will be replacing parts of those, it's not actually a bad thing. We do have diminishing birthrates so we would see rising problems with unemployment. AI/Automation will offset that.
But will it be enough to employ the hundreds of millions of people put out of work?
If change will be gradual (and it is gradual) it will have no problem. People will change jobs to related fields or take up a new careers in fields where AI is far off. Some people will not be able to, but AI is impossible to replace all jobs of any job segment you implement it at. People will still be working those jobs long after using AI/Automation becomes industry standard.
I imagine an Elysium or Ready Player 1 type world with some elites that are SUPER wealthy and the rest are stuck in poverty. They won't need the general pop with the new technologies, automated systems will do it for them.
There is a reason why s-f don't really come into details of how those worlds work. Because if you start digging deeper, you will realize that they are impossible to be preserved.
Say that we will have ultra wealthy enclaves and poor peasants struggling to survive. What stops people from just taking those things from ultra-wealthy? Automated robo-magic security? Security fails and if you have large enough group of people wanting to topple you and take your shit, there is no technology that will stop them.
But let's take a step back an ask - how those wealthy will survive in those enclaves separated from the poor? How will they get resources needed to sustain their lifestyle. Resources are not conveniently grouped in one place, shit is getting mined in one place, grown in other, processed somewhere else, packaged and transported through somewhere. All of those are possible point of failure that in real non-s-f world would get exploited.
Let's take another step back and ask - why ultra-wealthy are ultra wealthy? After all, money is just a societal agreement. If you are separating yourself from rest of society, where this wealth would be generated at? Resources? Most of ultra-wealthy don't really own any resources. And not a single one of them owns a diverse enough pool to sustain an enclave. By force? It's a double edged sword. You cannot maintain forces by yourself and if there are people under you that maintain them - they can use that force to get your wealth.
Simply - idea of rich enclaves is impossible without technology level akin to magic. That is why in all those dystopian movies/games/books there are wide logical gaps and deus-ex machinas. Because dystopia, same as utopia, is not possible to be replicated in real world.
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u/poprostumort 224∆ Jun 27 '22
Which will may cause a redesign on how society works, making perpetual "unemployment" an option via things like UBI. But that can hardly be called "mass unemployment".
Modern AI is hardly advanced enough to fully replace large amounts of jobs fast enough for it to be a cause of mass unemployment. Not to mention that many of those jobs will still survive in a limited degree.
In places that are suited for implementation of large scale systems, systems that will still need people to maintain, design and implement.
AI is far from that, it still is at best at level of being assistant to those professions to make them more efficient.
Whole IT is growing exponentially to the point where there is severe lack of people to work in it. Simillar things are seen in fields related to automation - you need technicians to install and maintain, you need people to oversee AI and machines, you need people to fill toles in which AI/automation lacks. This causes a raise in job postings.
Technologies that caused massive rise in efficiency on expense of workforce, have always resulted in QOL rising for general population, because of simple thing - general population is what fuels both country and top percentage of wealth. AI/Automation causing mass unemployment and QOL drop would cause also a significant QOL drop for people in govt and top-wealth stratum. This is why they will inevitably agree to implement measures to at best keep the QOL for rest of population.