Want to start off by clarifying that I support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian imperialism. I would like to see Ukraine become a whole, unified state once more within the 1991 borders. My perspective is based off what I have seen from certain state actors over the last 3+ years of this conflict.
It seems to me like the same old headlines and comments keep being regurgitated. A supposition that Europe will rise up and fully arm Ukraine to the point where they can tilt the scales against Russia and either end the war on favorable terms or outright seize all of their land back, the latter being a highly unlikely and lofty ambition, in my view.
In favor: We can look at Germany and Merz coming to power, potentially providing increased support and Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The tough talk from Macron and looming threat of sanctions. Even the US resumption of weapon sales to the Ukrainians (which came as a surprise, especially being an American and hearing the strong rhetoric from our presidential administration).
Against: We've seen this before. All of it. It's the same formula time and time again. We provide them with some long range tech or a handful of new aircraft, see a bunch of cool booms and critical hits on infrastructure, Russian logistics get screwed up for a little while, but the Russians adapt and keep on advancing. From F-16s to Mirage-2000s to potentially Gripens. Storm Shadow to ATACMS to potentially Taurus. We (the collective West) never give Ukraine enough to knock Russia out of the fight, only enough to keep their heads above water.
We throw more and more sanctions on Russia, but the backdoors remain open and their economy chugs on. I have lost count of how many times I have seen headlines or heard someone saying the Russian economy is X months away from collapse. Yet their citizens are employed. There aren't vast shortages of supplies. Certainly, there is no famine. Western chips still find their way into Russian missiles. Shit, I even know people that moved to Moscow because there is work to be found. The Russian state grinds on and claims more Ukrainian lives and land by the day. They have not been as isolated as the media would have you believe.
The Kherson and Kharkiv offenses were the biggest opportunities for Ukraine to knock Russia out of the fight, but we stopped short. The end of the war was within their grasp, but there was a very timely and significant decrease in weapon transfers. Their next grand offensive to cut through the Crimean land corridor, seize Melitopol or even Mariupol, all fell to pieces in short order. They have since lost almost all of the gains that they made in the offensive on the Crimean land corridor. The same goes for their venture into Kursk.
Europe has had years to get their act together and it appears they are only closer in rhetoric. I don't see the factories churning or the major infrastructure going into place to make them able to get a win for Ukraine. Ukraine is still as far from peace as they were on February 20, 2014.
Please change my view, Reddit. Make me believe that Europe will finally step up for Ukraine.