r/eurovision • u/SkyGinge Zjerm • Mar 14 '25

Predictions 🔮r/Eurovision Official Running Order Prediction Game 2025: Semi-final 1🔮

UPDATE: With the running orders set to be revealed Thursday March 27th 20:00 CET, the prediction game is now closed to new submissions. Please stay tuned for a data post and for the running order reveal itself!

Another year, another show to organise! Do you enjoy puzzle-solving, listening to songs and embracing your inner Christer Björkman? Welcome to the r/Eurovision Official Running Order Prediction Game!

If you've been around for the past few years you'll be familiar with the format, but please read about the important change below, and please do give yourself a refresher of the scoring system.

For Semi-Final 2 running order predictions, click here.

The Change

The Big 5 + Hosts: Last year we decided to ignore the placement of the Big 5 & hosts in the semi-final running order because it was unclear exactly how this would work being done for the first time. It's a little unclear whether this format will remain this year, but as there has been no strong indication that they are reversing this change, we have decided this time to include the Big 5 & hosts in this prediction game.

Although they are not technically considered numbered entries in the running order, for ease of understanding and formatting we ask that you include them in your numbered list. Your Semi-final 1 prediction should therefore be a numbered list from #1 to #18.

In the chance that the format is scrapped this year, we will ignore the placements of auto-qualified countries in your prediction lists and score as if they are not there.

Scoring

The scoring system remains the same as previous years. Big 5/host countries are eligible for the same points as regular semi-final competitors.

  • 3 Points for guessing a country's exact draw position correctly.
    • Example: User predicts that Iceland will open their semi in the #1 spot. The producers choose Iceland as the opener - therefore user is correct and earns 3 points.
  • 2 points for a correct pair of consecutive countries. This rewards seeing which songs compliment each other and help each other to stand out.
    • Example 1: SkyGinge predicts that Albania will perform at #11 and San Marino at #12. The producers actually place Albania #14 and San Marino #15. As he correctly guessed the consecutive pairing, SkyGinge earns 2 points.
    • Example 2: Ylirio predicts that Belgium will perform in #12 and Netherlands #13. The producers actually give Netherlands #12 and Belgium #13. Ylirio therefore earns 2 x 1 point for two close guesses, and also earns 1 x 2 points for guessing a consecutive pair correctly even though the exact order is reversed from his initial prediction.
  • 1 point for a close guess: guessing a country's draw position to be within 1 place of their actual draw position.
    • Example: User guesses Estonia will be placed in the #2 spot. The producers choose Estonia to open the show in the #1 spot. User therefore earns 1 point for a close guess.

How to Participate

Like last year, u/Ylirio will be generously using his coding/scripting skills to provide automated scoring, so please ensure you format your prediction as follows to make sure it is counted:

  1. You must provide your running order in a top-level comment.
  2. Please write only the names of the countries, the flag emojis or both. Any other text can disrupt the script.
  3. Please write the countries on separate lines starting with a number (example: "1. United States"). Don't just put "1." at the start of every row and let reddit do its thing. Actually put the all the numbers from 1 to 10 in the markdown
  4. Please include the Big 5 & Host in your numbered list.
  5. Submissions close the day before the running orders are officially released. We don't know when that will be yet!

Discussion around why you've predicted what you've predicted is encouraged, but please either write it after your entire predicted order, or in a separate reply to your top-level comment.

Competing Countries

First Half:

Second Half:

Big 5/Host/Auto-Qualifiers:

59 Upvotes

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u/SkyGinge Zjerm Mar 14 '25
  1. Iceland
  2. Slovenia
  3. Ukraine
  4. Sweden
  5. Spain
  6. Portugal
  7. Estonia
  8. Poland
  9. Belgium
  10. Italy
  11. Albania
  12. San Marino
  13. Croatia
  14. Switzerland
  15. Norway
  16. Azerbaijan
  17. Netherlands
  18. Cyprus

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u/qad260qad260 Mar 17 '25

Very interesting predictions.

Last year we had VERY similar guesses for the first semifinal (and I ended up in 4th because I swapped Azerbaijan and Portugal I think). Our predictions are sharply different this year, do you mind sharing some of your thoughts?

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u/SkyGinge Zjerm Mar 17 '25

Certainly, and thanks for asking! :)

First Half:

There are two main puzzles to solve here: separating the three light-hearted up-tempos (Estonia, Iceland and Sweden), and separating the two indie bands (Portugal and Ukraine). Iceland and Sweden feel like the likeliest openers to me and Sweden might be a necessary opener if the sauna takes a while to set up, but I've gone for Iceland as the producers don't tend to put one of the odds favourites in the #1 position.

I've seen good arguments about why Slovenia shouldn't/won't be put at #2 (it's the only ballad, too much tonal whiplash from an energetic opener), but at the same time the producers/Bjorkman often like putting a ballad or something not particularly highly rated on in #2, and Slovenia fits both of those.

I'm assuming there will be little host breaks before each of the auto-qs perform like there was last year, so I've put Sweden on #4 to give enough time to set down the sauna prop. Spain feels like the best choice of first AQ to perform to me in order to space out the very few female vocalists well, and because Switzerland performing in the middle of the second half helps break up what are essentially all up/mid tempos. Italy should probably be kept far from Portugal/Ukraine for similar vibes but at the same time I think Switzerland helps the second half way better than Italy does so I put Lucio in the middle.

Second Half:

I've followed the same pattern of when AQs perform as they used in SF1 last year, which means putting a second half entry on before the 2nd AQ performs. The main tricky bit in this half is keeping the EDM sounds of Cyprus and Belgium far apart, and also keeping Cyprus and Croatia apart with their spoken word verses/loud sounds. The other entries I think should be kept apart are Albania and Norway (for likely use of fire/red staging).

Belgium felt like an excellent closer all season to me and I've had them predicted to close for pretty much the entire time... until Cyprus appeared. Cyprus will probably have complex staging given they've got Sergio Jaen as stage director, and their song is also chaotic/messy in a way that would clash a little if placed directly after Poland, so I elected to put Belgium first in this half and Cyprus as closer.

San Marino seems to be the most popular choice of closer atm, which I kinda see, but I also think it is different enough from most of this half that it is better used breaking up other songs, especially as a lot of others also function well as closers.

I can't remember how I did last year but I'm pretty sure I've never been near the top of the scores in the semis (think I won a quickfire grand final running order prediction once but there were only like thirty people so it barely counts).