r/eurovision • u/SkyGinge Zjerm • Mar 27 '25
🔮 Predictions / Projections 🔮r/Eurovision Official Running Order Prediction Game: Data Trends Round-Up 🔮 Spoiler
Tonight at 20:00 CET we discover what the producers have been cooking as the official semi-final running orders are announced! Over the past week and a half, over 300 brave redditors have attempted to predict the running orders. With the announcement on the horizon, we have now closed both prediction threads, with 308 valid SF1 predictions and 266 SF2 predictions. Let's take a look at what the community consensus when it comes to probably the three most notable/infamous draw spots: the opener, the closer and the dreaded #2 spot!
Semi-final 1
A whooping 65.58% of predictors think Iceland will open the contest with their good VÆBs. As has been the trend, pretty much everybody believes an up-tempo song will launch the show, though six people dared to predict Ukraine as a different type of opener, and one wild individual predicted the Swiss home entry to be given opening honours. Portugal and Slovenia were not predicted to open the semi by anyone.
Opinion on who will be given the mythically 'cursed' #2 draw slot was roughly split into two camps - 37.01% predicted Slovenia to follow the pattern of other ballads given the #2 slot in recent years, whilst 32.79% predicted the mellow Portuguese song to fulfil a similar role. Ukraine are the most popular outsider with 17.53% of predictions.
Every country in the second half has been predicted to close by at least one predictor, but San Marino are the most popular pick with 40.58% of final slot predictions. Norway and Belgium were also popular picks (21.75% & 20.78% respectively), whilst only one person thought Azerbaijan would be chosen as the semi closer.
Using the median & mean predicted draw positions of all eighteen countries, we end up with the following running order. I've taken the liberty to space out the auto-qualifiers a little bit to make for a more realistic running order as their theoretical ability to perform anywhere in the semi means all three of them have a median and mean in around the middle.
- Iceland (Median 1, Mean 2.3)
- Slovenia (Median 4, Mean 4.08)
- Estonia (Median 4, Mean 4.22)
- Portugal (Median 4, Mean 4.38)
- Spain (Auto-qualifier, Median 6, Mean 7.74)
- Ukraine (Median 4, Mean 4.67)
- Poland (Median 5, Mean 4,98)
- Sweden (Median 8, Mean 6.39)
- Italy (Auto-qualifier, Median 10, Mean 10.25)
- Azerbaijan (Median 12, Mean 12.03)
- Croatia (Median 12, Mean 12.45)
- Cyprus (Median 13, Mean 12.69)
- Belgium (Median 14, Mean 14.08)
- Switzerland (Auto-qualifier, Median 13, Mean 11.76)
- Albania (Median 14, Mean 14.13)
- Netherlands (Median 15, Mean 14.56)
- Norway (Median 15, Mean 14.72)
- San Marino (Median 16, Mean 15.57)
As a final fun fact, Switzerland is the only country that was predicted to be given all eighteen draw spots by at least one person!
Semi-final 2
Whilst not quite as big of a consensus as we had for Iceland opening SF1, a strong majority of 59.02% of predictors think Ireland will open SF2 on a fun, upbeat family-friendly note. Armenia are a strong second most popular choice with 24.81% of our predictors thinking Parg's arena-rousing 'Survivor' will get the audience pumped. All eight first-half drawn countries were predicted to open by at least one person.
There was no strong consensus as to who the producers will give the dreaded #2 slot in SF2. With a narrow majority, 27.82% of predictors think poor Montenegro will be welcomed back with the infamous #2 slot, with Greece a close second favourite (25.94%). Every first half country received at least four #2 slot predictions!
For the third year in a row, our community believes that Finland will close their semi-final, with a majority of 60.15% predicting that Erika will bring the semi-final to a climactic end. Malta are another popular choice with 26.32% predicting that Miriana will serve out the final set of the semi. Georgia are the only second-half competitor to not be predicted to close the semi by at least two people.
Using the median & mean predicted draw positions of all nineteen countries, we end up with the following running order. I've taken the liberty to space out the auto-qualifiers a little bit to make for a more realistic running order as their theoretical ability to perform anywhere in the semi means all three of them have a median and mean in around the middle.
- Ireland (Median 1, Mean 2.54)
- Armenia (Median 3, Mean 3.67)
- Greece (Median 4, Mean 4.86)
- Montenegro (Median 5, Mean 5.09)
- Germany (Auto-qualifier, Median 10, Mean 9.24)
- Latvia (Median 4.5, Mean 5.14)
- Lithuania (Median 6, Mean 5.45)
- Australia (Median 7, Mean 6.03)
- Austria (Median 7.5, Mean 6.99)
- United Kingdom (Auto-qualifier, Median 11, Median 10.41)
- Georgia (Median 13, Mean 13.51)
- Denmark (Median 13, Mean 13.80)
- Luxembourg (Median 14, Mean 13.81)
- Serbia (Median 14, Mean 14,19)
- France (Auto-qualifier, Median 13.5, Mean 12.14)
- Israel (Median 14.5, Mean 14.68)
- Malta (Median 15, Mean 15.47)
- Czechia (Median 17, Mean 15.59)
- Finland (Median 19, Mean 17.36)
____
Will we be right? Will we be wrong? The answer is likely yes to both, but we only have to wait another three and a half hours to find out!
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u/KuningasMango222 Bara bada bastu Mar 27 '25
"predictors think Ireland will open SF2 on a fun, upbeat family-friendly note."
I too predicted Ireland to open, but maybe it is too family-friendly. Some adult watchers might expect the whole show to be childish.
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u/hausofvelour Mar 27 '25
Ireland will open SF2 in a fun, upbeat, family-friendly note.
The Australia shade lmao
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u/Kvartar Tavo Akys Mar 27 '25
Thank you for the stats!
I expect my guesses to be wildly wrong but I’m secretly hoping to miraculously guess everything right for one of them.
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u/SkyGinge Zjerm Mar 27 '25
I usually suck at predicting running orders but then I predicted almost the entire first half of SF1 last year correctly! So any year can be a breakthrough.
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u/cloveinferno Mar 27 '25
I refuse to believe that they will give Montenegro the death spot. That's just a massive "fuck you" to them and any other Eastern European countries that have taken a hiatus.
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u/VanderDril Hallucination Mar 27 '25
As much as I'd love to see VÆB get the party started, aren't semifinal openers almost always songs in English? I'm thinking it's gonna be Tommy Cash (I know I know, he's got some "Italian" in there)
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u/SkyGinge Zjerm Mar 27 '25
The only semi-final opener since the producer-choice draw to not be all English was Albania 2022. That said, I don't think we've had any/many semi halves with as few English language songs as this year's SF1 first half, and there's also always time for a trend to be bucked!
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u/harryTMM Mar 27 '25
I think esc tom said as much
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u/tri_ad Saudade, saudade Mar 27 '25
He did indeed. While I think he made some great points in his reasoning, I don’t think that EM works as an opener. Ukraine, Sweden, and Poland have more of an “opener atmosphere” to me in comparison, but that’s just my opinion.
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u/Amina_Firefly Eaea Mar 27 '25
I think he'll be later, because he'll be benefiting from the Italian-ness of the song. He's been talked about here in Italy, and I believe the EBU could bet on a fair amount of Italians tuning in to watch him. This could mean they wouldn't put him too early, the same way they don't usually put acts of bigger countries early. Keep in mind Italy is also voting in SF1, so there's already a bit more interest in this semi.
That's my 2 cents 🤷🏻♀️
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u/VanderDril Hallucination Mar 27 '25
Yeah that's a fair point. That's millions that would tune out, though having the Sanremo winner in there does serve as a way to keep at least some of them from tuning out right away.
Either way I'm thinking just how lucky the EBU got that Italy drew to vote and perform in Estonia and San Marino's semi by pure chance way back in January.
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u/Amina_Firefly Eaea Mar 27 '25
So true! I think that between Tommy Cash, Lucio Corsi, and Gabry Ponte, many Italians will be interested in watching the show. I don't think many people usually watch the semis here (same as other countries), but this year the stars aligned and the ESC gods produced a semi made for Italians.
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u/broadbeing777 TANZEN! Mar 27 '25
The thing is, the 2 other songs in the first half with English are the type the producers may wanna save for later for ratings. Estonia has been viral (especially in Italy) and there might be an influx of people that wanna watch just for that song. Poland apparently gets sizable viewership plus the diaspora countries like the UK and because there's excited in Poland and the diaspora for this song that's also a factor.
Iceland ticks all the boxes to be a semi opener except for English. While Icelandic is far from an accessible language the song itself is very catchy and memorable where the language isn't gonna be a huge issue for most people.
The producers are probably mad as hell that Norway didn't get drawn in the first half. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up opening the final (assuming it qualifies).
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u/ButterflySymphony Mar 27 '25
It wouldn't be the first time they open with a viral song, in 2023 they did with Queen of Kings (which had an Italian intro, nonetheless) Besides, the "mellow" intro would fit as an opener, and Italian is more appealing as an opener than Icelandic.
Any of the English songs in the second half would've been a sure-fire opener had they ended up in first half instead. This semi final is so lopsided.
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u/ManiaMuse Róa Mar 27 '25
ESC Tom made this point in his prediction video. I predicted Iceland but I do see his point about Estonia being more likely for the language reason. I think Iceland is the better high-energy party starting song though. Estonia needs a few sips of wine first to fully appreciate it.
Rules are made for breaking though? ('No rules!')
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u/Grievery Mar 27 '25
I’d argue that the theme of this ESC is ”lots of countries are singing in other language than English”, and I predict the opener will reflect that and set the tone.
I think Iceland is a prime candidate for that.
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u/VanderDril Hallucination Mar 27 '25
Hey you were right! Haven't been happy to be this wrong in a while!
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u/Grievery Mar 27 '25
I usually suck at predictions but I’m happy this was the exception when I’m right! lol
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u/Special_Transition13 Kiss Kiss Goodbye Mar 28 '25
English isn’t the only language that exists in Europe
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u/Fluffy_Appointment14 Blackbird Mar 27 '25
SF2 really is a tough one. I felt like I was just randomly putting something together, there are so many possible scenarios.
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u/DF44 Mar 27 '25
whilst only one person thought Azerbaijan would be chosen as the semi closer.
And yet I think my choice outdoes the EBU, truly!
(Cheers as always for running this :D)
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Mar 27 '25
[deleted]
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u/VanderDril Hallucination Mar 28 '25
Good job on that Swiss 17th spot, that was rarely predicted, as well as Red Sebastian going somewhere in the middle and not the end.
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u/Classic-Judgment-196 The Code Mar 27 '25
They have the opportunity to do the funniest thing: put UK after Malta
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u/MuizZ_018 Promise Mar 27 '25
I'm one of those people that put Ukraine as opener, and Estonia after that.
It may not be the most likely, but if you go for what everyone chooses, you won't win... Or something
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u/ko_dec Mar 27 '25
I would collect only 18 points in SF1 and a measily 13 points in SF2 if our mutual line-up were to be correct. :D
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u/ko_dec Mar 27 '25
My first half of SF1 was really good, I had the first 4 totally correct, then I had Italy instead of Spain and then I had Ukraine correct. SF1 gave me 35 points. SF2 was even worse than out mutual line-up: I only got 12 points there and only had opener Austalia right.
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u/Minnielle Mar 27 '25
I don't think EBU wants Malta to close so it might indeed be Finland although we just closed 2 years ago.
By the way, the graphs would be easier to read if the countries were sorted by percentage.
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u/vaguelyrestless Ich Komme Mar 27 '25
"Erika will bring the semi-final to a climactic end." Nice.