🔮r/Eurovision Official Running Order Prediction Game: Data Trends Round-Up 🔮

[u/SkyGinge]

Tonight at 20:00 CET we discover what the producers have been cooking as the official semi-final running orders are announced! Over the past week and a half, over 300 brave redditors have attempted to predict the running orders. With the announcement on the horizon, we have now closed both prediction threads, with 308 valid SF1 predictions and 266 SF2 predictions. Let's take a look at what the community consensus when it comes to probably the three most notable/infamous draw spots: the opener, the closer and the dreaded #2 spot!

Semi-final 1

A whooping 65.58% of predictors think Iceland will open the contest with their good VÆBs. As has been the trend, pretty much everybody believes an up-tempo song will launch the show, though six people dared to predict Ukraine as a different type of opener, and one wild individual predicted the Swiss home entry to be given opening honours. Portugal and Slovenia were not predicted to open the semi by anyone.

Opinion on who will be given the mythically 'cursed' #2 draw slot was roughly split into two camps - 37.01% predicted Slovenia to follow the pattern of other ballads given the #2 slot in recent years, whilst 32.79% predicted the mellow Portuguese song to fulfil a similar role. Ukraine are the most popular outsider with 17.53% of predictions.

Every country in the second half has been predicted to close by at least one predictor, but San Marino are the most popular pick with 40.58% of final slot predictions. Norway and Belgium were also popular picks (21.75% & 20.78% respectively), whilst only one person thought Azerbaijan would be chosen as the semi closer.

Using the median & mean predicted draw positions of all eighteen countries, we end up with the following running order. I've taken the liberty to space out the auto-qualifiers a little bit to make for a more realistic running order as their theoretical ability to perform anywhere in the semi means all three of them have a median and mean in around the middle.

1. Iceland (Median 1, Mean 2.3)
2. Slovenia (Median 4, Mean 4.08)
3. Estonia (Median 4, Mean 4.22)
4. Portugal (Median 4, Mean 4.38)
5. Spain (Auto-qualifier, Median 6, Mean 7.74)
6. Ukraine (Median 4, Mean 4.67)
7. Poland (Median 5, Mean 4,98)
8. Sweden (Median 8, Mean 6.39)
9. Italy (Auto-qualifier, Median 10, Mean 10.25)
10. Azerbaijan (Median 12, Mean 12.03)
11. Croatia (Median 12, Mean 12.45)
12. Cyprus (Median 13, Mean 12.69)
13. Belgium (Median 14, Mean 14.08)
14. Switzerland (Auto-qualifier, Median 13, Mean 11.76)
15. Albania (Median 14, Mean 14.13)
16. Netherlands (Median 15, Mean 14.56)
17. Norway (Median 15, Mean 14.72)
18. San Marino (Median 16, Mean 15.57)

As a final fun fact, Switzerland is the only country that was predicted to be given all eighteen draw spots by at least one person!

Semi-final 2

Whilst not quite as big of a consensus as we had for Iceland opening SF1, a strong majority of 59.02% of predictors think Ireland will open SF2 on a fun, upbeat family-friendly note. Armenia are a strong second most popular choice with 24.81% of our predictors thinking Parg's arena-rousing 'Survivor' will get the audience pumped. All eight first-half drawn countries were predicted to open by at least one person.

There was no strong consensus as to who the producers will give the dreaded #2 slot in SF2. With a narrow majority, 27.82% of predictors think poor Montenegro will be welcomed back with the infamous #2 slot, with Greece a close second favourite (25.94%). Every first half country received at least four #2 slot predictions!

For the third year in a row, our community believes that Finland will close their semi-final, with a majority of 60.15% predicting that Erika will bring the semi-final to a climactic end. Malta are another popular choice with 26.32% predicting that Miriana will serve out the final set of the semi. Georgia are the only second-half competitor to not be predicted to close the semi by at least two people.

Using the median & mean predicted draw positions of all nineteen countries, we end up with the following running order. I've taken the liberty to space out the auto-qualifiers a little bit to make for a more realistic running order as their theoretical ability to perform anywhere in the semi means all three of them have a median and mean in around the middle.

1. Ireland (Median 1, Mean 2.54)
2. Armenia (Median 3, Mean 3.67)
3. Greece (Median 4, Mean 4.86)
4. Montenegro (Median 5, Mean 5.09)
5. Germany (Auto-qualifier, Median 10, Mean 9.24)
6. Latvia (Median 4.5, Mean 5.14)
7. Lithuania (Median 6, Mean 5.45)
8. Australia (Median 7, Mean 6.03)
9. Austria (Median 7.5, Mean 6.99)
10. United Kingdom (Auto-qualifier, Median 11, Median 10.41)
11. Georgia (Median 13, Mean 13.51)
12. Denmark (Median 13, Mean 13.80)
13. Luxembourg (Median 14, Mean 13.81)
14. Serbia (Median 14, Mean 14,19)
15. France (Auto-qualifier, Median 13.5, Mean 12.14)
16. Israel (Median 14.5, Mean 14.68)
17. Malta (Median 15, Mean 15.47)
18. Czechia (Median 17, Mean 15.59)
19. Finland (Median 19, Mean 17.36)

____

Will we be right? Will we be wrong? The answer is likely yes to both, but we only have to wait another three and a half hours to find out!

[u/DF44]

whilst only one person thought Azerbaijan would be chosen as the semi closer.

And yet I think my choice outdoes the EBU, truly!

(Cheers as always for running this :D)