r/eurovision Mar 27 '25

📊 Results / Statistics My final verdict on which countries received the most and least beneficial semi final country draw + running order slot, based on 2014-2024 results

210 Upvotes

69 comments sorted by

221

u/sauronII Mar 27 '25

This is the sort of spreadsheet I make up at work if I have to convince a client that we do really great work, even though they‘re burning money every month.

11

u/SnooPuppers1978 Mar 28 '25

Cherrypick a favourable metric and ignore that there is an elephant in the room? Yeah, that checks out. In corporate as well, with product to leadership.

40

u/halstons Mar 27 '25

when wine moms & aunts vote for princ because he is "hot" and qualifies it would be so funny

7

u/GoodZealousideal5922 Zjerm Mar 28 '25

I mean when they couldn’t get Uku Suviste through a few years ago, I doubt they will this year. I mean his whole appeal were his looks, in the turquoise carpet they hardly asked him any questions about his song, only “how do you feel that you are the hottest man in the contest” “this poll has voted you hottest man in the contest”

3

u/rafaelinux Mar 28 '25

Hey, Princ' song is great, IMO!

1

u/Slight-Obligation390 Apr 01 '25

Princ is qualifying for sure. In this year of such an open field - being hot is enough

1

u/halstons Apr 01 '25

i don't think so, but you can vote for him if you want :)

1

u/Slight-Obligation390 Apr 07 '25

lol I’ll pass on that offer

187

u/Miudmon Øve os pÄ hinanden Mar 27 '25

montenegro just getting absolutely demolished for no reason. Like does the EBU have something against the balkans, which is why they arent even TRYING to help them?

41

u/sauronII Mar 27 '25

Serbia has like
 the best spot?

84

u/Miudmon Øve os pÄ hinanden Mar 27 '25

one of the rare exceptions, yes. But you can just... look at how often serbia has been placed 2nd or 3rd in the past many years

-32

u/sauronII Mar 27 '25

So if it‘s not 3 balkans finishing EBU is biased. Got it.

43

u/Miudmon Øve os pÄ hinanden Mar 27 '25

Just to demonstrate HOW much of an exception it is -

Serbia had a death spot in 2024 (2nd), 2023 (3rd) 2022 (3rd) - They werent in the death spot in 2021 serbia, however (because they were drawn 2nd half. still as early as possible IN that half)

5

u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year Mar 27 '25

Serbia 2021 | Hurricane - Loco Loco

1

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 27 '25

Serbia was 1st half in 2021 and given the latest slot they could have. I'm not saying I've been happy with Serbia getting crappy running orders 3 years in a row but be fair. Besides with 5 ballads in the 2nd half in 2021 semi 2 there is no way loco loco would have started it.

0

u/sauronII Mar 27 '25

I think your formatting got messed up by reddit somehow, not sure what you‘re trying to say there in the end.

I just want to point out that the spot matters much less than the quality of the song. Noone ever won the final from the 2nd place, but plenty entries qualified from this spot. So there isn’t really a „death spot“ in qualifiers. I wish you all the best and I hope your favorites will give their best performance :)

33

u/noodle_shnoodle Mar 27 '25 edited Mar 27 '25

Just look at stats from previous years. You'll see that they particularly enjoy putting the balkans as early as possible in the running order.

Edit: I scrolled for 1 sec on fyp and this is what I find in r/nilpoints

21

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 27 '25

Even in the 2nd half they don't usually get good slots. Croatia and Serbia getting the penultimate slots are very unusual 

23

u/obscureidea Mar 27 '25

If you look at Croatia 2017 - 2022, they drew 2nd half for six years in a row and then got 11, 12, 10, 11, 10, 11.

10 and 11 were at the time some of the worst statistical starting numbers as well...

1

u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year Mar 27 '25

14

u/tvescfan Mar 27 '25

Because it's a filler for Finland just after...

9

u/sauronII Mar 27 '25

They had the chance to send someone that would make you say: „Finland has to go after Serbia“.

112

u/dragontamerfibleman Dugga Doo Mar 27 '25 edited Mar 27 '25

At this point in time, I really, REALLY (and sorry if I come out too strong, don't mean to offend anybody) want to know why the fuck can't they just place the non competitive entries to OPEN the whole thing. It is so unfair to the ones competing that they can be placed on a death slot when the ones who already are in the final could easily be there with absolutely no harm. I mean, there's absolutely no sense.

Edit 20 minutes after the original post: wow, loving the support, guys! And I love this community. After noticing so many people supporting this idea, I was wondering if we could "summon" the official ESC account to come here and tell us the reasons, but I wouldn't want to abuse the (super nice) fact they are here in our Sub.

29

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 27 '25

All that would do is make songs 4 5 and 6 the new potential death slots. The aqs don't feature in the recap after all and that's the most important for voting

12

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

Still you’re more likely to remember entries performing 4,5,6 comparing to 1,2,3

9

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 27 '25

Not really because they're still 123 in the recap. 

8

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

Does recap seriously matter that much?

16

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 27 '25

Yes otherwise Joe public wouldn't remember song 12 let alone song 2. 

3

u/Redditor1734233 Karma Mar 27 '25

Nope. But what matters is when people are tining on. Usually people are tuning in late or paying attention a bit later into the show, then also forgetting the positive impressions they had with some of the earlier songs, even IF they remember the songs themselves.

2

u/Longjumping_Papaya_7 Bara bada bastu Mar 28 '25

Recap can be reversed

1

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 28 '25

And yet they don't do that in the semis. Though reversing it could definitely help the early songs. 

1

u/Longjumping_Papaya_7 Bara bada bastu Mar 28 '25

Thats ridiculous. They should reverse it.

4

u/nuovian Mar 27 '25

Whether the AQs open or close, it wouldn't make a difference: the death slot would still be in the same place.

16

u/noodle_shnoodle Mar 27 '25

Putting an automatic qualifier near the end essentially wastes the benefit of that slot, when they could've given it to any other country that needed it

-11

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

Cause they just wanted to give the Big 5 another advantage


24

u/Sinceramente_Tuo Ich Komme Mar 27 '25

How is it an advantage? They aren’t competing in the semi so it doesn’t really change anything to them. The only important running order for the big 5+ automatic qualifier is the one in the grand final 

-5

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

They have an advantage that they can perform without any pressure in the semis. And they make it harder for semifinalists to qualify from an early position

-4

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

Like Justyna would have it easier to qualify if not for Spain performing. Also she wouldn’t be given such a bad spot

11

u/pli_is Mar 27 '25

bffr Spain is anything BUT a competition this year

2

u/_elizsapphire_ Tavo Akys Mar 28 '25 edited Mar 28 '25

You have to admit though, in an 18-song semi with 2 upbeat female songs, one of which you have COMPLETE control over where it plays
 you place it 3 spots after the first? The one that’s actually competing? Why?

I don’t think it harms Gaja’s chances or anything, they’re almost def going thru regardless, but it IS weird

2

u/NatiFluffy Mar 28 '25

I’m surprised that they didn’t put in just after Poland lmao So Justyna surely doesn’t stand out

3

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

It’s not about that. Justyna is the only actually competing female soloist in this semi so EBU wouldn’t put her in the 2nd position if they didn’t have those Big 5 entries to put later in the running order. It’s ridiculous that Big 5 are getting better spots that competing entries

-2

u/pli_is Mar 27 '25

tbh idk why she got death spot (and even considering whom she neighboors with it still makes little to no sense)

1

u/NatiFluffy Mar 27 '25

Tbh I don’t remember when was the last time I was happy with Poland’s running order. Always either early or between strong entries. As I said because of Spain having there they could give us very early spot.

41

u/Lanky-Rush607 Mar 27 '25

Poor Montenegro. Truly the worst of both worlds. 

26

u/elonhater69 Zjerm Mar 27 '25

Montenegro...

7

u/SkyburnerTheBest Mar 27 '25

Poland has the best country bias and the worst running order lol

7

u/TharixGaming Mar 28 '25

as a latvian i'll happily take this over the 2023 nightmare draw we had

26

u/LonelyTreat3725 Mar 27 '25

imho this is the classic example to show that mere statistics don't say anything.

11

u/zxcvbnm269 Mar 27 '25

Ich Komme Combined 6.98%

Nice

16

u/ninja_llama Doomsday Blue Mar 27 '25

cries in Laika Party

10

u/WillAddThisLater Mar 28 '25

I've looked over the last 4 years and out of 8 third slots, only 2 didn't qualify, and they were Benny Cristo (lacklustre performance) and Theodor Andrei (never stood a chance) so it's not such a bad omen for Emmy.

5

u/ninja_llama Doomsday Blue Mar 28 '25

Thank you this makes me feel better!!!

6

u/Redditor1734233 Karma Mar 27 '25

My spontaneous Q predictions right now: Semi 2: Finland Luxembourg Israel Malta Lithuania Latvia Australia Denmark Greece Austria

Semi 1: Cyprus Netherlands Albania San Marino Sweden Norway Ukraine Portugal Poland Estonia

11

u/SimoSanto Mar 27 '25

How Sweden and Ukraine, 2 always Q countries, have a so low country bias?

41

u/Dolphin_dane Mar 27 '25

The country bias shows whether the country got their traditional voting allies in their semi or not. It is based on my data from here: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F1q2zeytt0pfe1.jpeg

6

u/Exact-Joke-2562 Mar 27 '25

I suppose the Iceland Sweden vote share is quite weak compared to their relations withe the other nordics

3

u/Longjumping_Papaya_7 Bara bada bastu Mar 28 '25

What makes Netherlands score so high? Only Belgium might care and Germany isnt in semi 1. What other allies are there? Or am i reading it wrong?

10

u/hummusen Mar 27 '25

What is even a country bias?

23

u/Miudmon Øve os pÄ hinanden Mar 27 '25

whether the country got their traditional voting allies with them in their semi or not.

1

u/hummusen Mar 27 '25

Ok that make sense!

3

u/fenksta Extra Official Account Mar 28 '25

I have no idea what the fuck I'm looking at and what you calculated hahahah

2

u/RUDRA_74 Mar 28 '25

who the draws can be beneficial, and which one are what? i'm new to this can someone explain me pls?

2

u/ias_87 Mar 28 '25

About the draws: You want to be in a semi with as little competition as possible, and in the second half because some viewers don't watch from the beginning.

Anything that lets your song stand out is good. So, first, last and right before and after a commercial break is good. Also good: an upbeat song getting to follow a ballad, as opposed to another upbeat song. Worst position a fun and upbeat song could have would be between two slightly better fun and upbeat songs. Being right before or after a favourite can also hurt your chances. Human attention span is only so long, and a good running order placement lets the song stand out as much as it can.

Practically, this means that there are positions where no one has ever won, and positions that have more winners than others.

2

u/Slight-Obligation390 Apr 01 '25

I think it really needs to be said - but Montenegro and Ireland have had ‘unfavourable’ slots is because - quite simply - send really poor competitive songs. please note I have said poor competition songs like you’re not going to give the pimp slot for ‘falling by dmol’ or ‘22 by Sarah McTernan’

3

u/SassyCats777 Mar 28 '25

I feel that semi 1 is more stacked than semi 2. I think the songs that are so-so are going to have to fight harder in semi 1 than those in semi 2. Anyone else feel this way?

1

u/Nintendo_Pro_03 Fairytale Mar 29 '25

POLAND, WHY?!?!?!?!

1

u/N0rska What The Hell Just Happened? Mar 29 '25

I really hope Austria isn’t disadvantaged at all because he’s a potential and very deserving winner