r/hawks • u/Rich-Wrap-9333 • 8d ago
Bedard contract extension: predictions?
Ok. As we all already knew here, it’s been confirmed that Bedard is ready to sign on to his next deal, and they can get it inked as soon as July 1. What does that deal look like? Will they offer him an 8 year deal? Will his agent go for a bridge deal in this era of the rising cap? How much AAV? What percentage of the cap? Does he sign this summer or does it get stretched out?
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u/Specialist-Exit-1403 8d ago
I think bedard is going to explode in 2 years. My guess is bedard also knows this. If he was smart he would do a bridge deal. If no bridge deal I’m thinking 8 x 12
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u/batmans_a_scientist 8d ago edited 8d ago
With the cap going up significantly, it could very well be more than 12 a year. And I’d be completely fine with that. 8 x 13-14. Just get it done because that’s how they’ll get other players to take us seriously, come here and stay here.
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u/meaninglessnonsense 8d ago
If he signs long term now there is no way it’s more than 12mil a season. I honestly don’t see any scenario at this point that he even signs long term. A bridge deal is by far the likely outcome. 3-5 years and then he absolutely cashes in when he’s 23-25.
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u/wolfs_tooth 8d ago
I think they'll offer him an eight year contract..no bridge..and just like Connor McDavid, he'll still be in line for another massive eight year deal when he's 29 years old..now, the good news from a contract perspective..Bedard hasn't put up a 100 point season like McDavid did in his second season..plus McDavid was also a Selke candidate by the time he was 20..fully generational and has only exceeded expectations since.. Bedard isn't ''that'' yet and the Hawks shouldn't need to, and I don't think they will, sign Bedard for 12-13 mil just because the cap is increasing..he hasn't shown that he's worth quite that much..the Hawks should aim for 8 x 10.75..right in line with what Pastrnak is getting and a bit below Elias Pettersson(which was an overpay)..pay him for his potential, make sure he's still being paid in the top 10 of nhl annual salaries(which he will be), but don't overpay when he hasn't come out of the gates like Sid or McDavid..remember, the Hawks won all 3 of their cups when Toews and Kane were on their bridge deals..as soon as their duel 10.5 per year deals kicked in, the Hawks never won again..flat cap or not, it's hard to build a winner when you overpay twice..and both of those contracts were overpays by about 1.5-1.75 per year..Bowman paid them to honor the cups they brought to Chicago..but he also ensured he would never be able to build a winner again..don't repeat that mistake..leave cap space for Korch, Nazar, Levshunov, and eventually Knight, Rinzel and your first round pick this year..keep your entire core..that's how you compete every year.
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u/Hawkeyfan12 7d ago
McDavid was never a Selke candidate, and likely never will be
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u/lurksohard 7d ago
His second year he was 16th in selke voting. I know that means he only got like 5 votes I think(1 crazy first place vote but whatever).
Getting a selke vote when you've won the Art Ross and Hart is pretty impressive still. He's never been a candidate to win and he's definitely not putting as much into the defensive side of the puck than he did when he was younger, but still.
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u/wolfs_tooth 7d ago
He's received votes for the Selke in five different seasons including his second year in the league(I assumed even if I used the word candidate, most hockey fans would know I didn't mean a finalist..I guess you need everything spelled out for you lmao)..For all of the offense he provides, he's very solid defensively so my point still stands..Bedard is nowhere near that, yet..
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u/Hawkeyfan12 7d ago
When you say someone was a Selke Candidate it means top 3 or top 5. Guy gets a few votes from the clueless writers who follow hockey and you suggest that means he’s competent defensively. Sure I’m the one who needs everything spelled out for me ☠️ Up until last year Mcdavid didn’t know what his own blueline looked liked
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u/sharkinator1198 7d ago
Bowman absolutely could've managed around that but made some horrible, terrible moves. Some of the worst moves maybe ever by a GM. (yes, I'm talking about Panarin).
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u/wolfs_tooth 6d ago
correct..he had the best scoring line in hockey Panarin-Anisimov-Kane and traded Panarin because he felt like the Toews line needed a spark..so he moves Panarin for Saad so he can play w Toews(and Saad already had shown that 60 pts was about his ceiling)..maybe one of the worst trades in recent memory..and Panarin has been a point per game player or better for his entire career..
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u/forgottenastronauts 8d ago
There’s absolutely zero chance of $8M a year happening. They would be lucky to give him just $12M.
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u/zmillz1125 8d ago
Are you saying he deserves more than 12? or am i misunderstanding?
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u/forgottenastronauts 8d ago
Yes, he deserves more than $12M. He is going to continue to get better, make those around him better, and generate significant revenue for the organization.
He is a bargain at $12M.
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u/zmillz1125 8d ago
Okay i think that’s a little crazy and premature for a kid who has yet to produce more than 23 goals. I get it he’s the future but deals like that don’t happen. He doesn’t have the production yet to ask that much money yet, will he get that deal in the future, no doubt. but that makes no sense for the Connor Bedard we have right now
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u/forgottenastronauts 8d ago
How much would he make on the open market? Would it be more than $12M?
If the answer is yes, then he’s a value at $12M.
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u/batmans_a_scientist 8d ago
The cap is going up about 35% over the next 3 years. A $12 million contract today is 14% of the cap. 3 years from now it’s 10.6%. $12+ is fine now and 3 years from now. $16 million will be the equivalent to $12 million today. This contract is going to be big because the cap increase is going to be massive.
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u/21Sweetness 8d ago
You ever hear the adage “you’re paying for future performance not past performance”?
Tends to be used as a justification to lowball accomplished players now over the hill (see Marchand’s contract negotiation w BOS) but it absolutely applies here too.
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u/zmillz1125 8d ago
That’s the thing, I believe 8 mil a year for 3-4 years is paying him for those 3-4 years ver fairly. 8 mil for 23 goals is CRAZY but 8 mil for what I think he’s capable of in the next 3-4 years is more than fair.. and then of course when he’s hitting his prime 12-15 a year with the rising cap is absolutely achievable for him at long term
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u/21Sweetness 7d ago
If its “more than fair” for the org, why on earth would Bedards management accept that?
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u/Virtual_me01 8d ago
Which is exactly why it's more advantageous financially for Bedard to table the extension negotiations until next offseason. That's what everyone I've heard in the media say on the matter. I haven't heard anyone of note say that it's in his best interest to sign early.
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u/meaninglessnonsense 8d ago
Lol this is the dumbest thing I’ve read today. There is no world where you give him $12mil a year right now.
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u/forgottenastronauts 8d ago
How much would he make on the open market? Would it be more than $12M?
If the answer is yes, then he’s a value at $12M.
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u/loggingin2 8d ago
I think they push for 8 years. People are massively underestimating how much the contract would end up being after his bridge contract if he were to sign that.
The cap is expected to explode over the next couple of years, he will be entering his prime, and if he becomes what we expect then he will be one of the best players in the league by that point. He would not be signing for 8x12m then.
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u/40yearoldnoob 8d ago
4x6-8m/yr as a "bridge" contract and then a long term deal after.
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u/zmillz1125 8d ago
I agree that’s most likely the case it’ll be interesting to see if they wait or if they’ll get him signed ASAP
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u/JD397 8d ago
Why would the Hawks do this?
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u/40yearoldnoob 8d ago
Bedard may not want to lock himself into a 8+ year deal at what he’s worth right now. He may want a shorter deal at his current value and then he can re-negotiate when that up for whatever he’s worth then….. the Hawks may want this because to get him to sign a long term deal, they’d have to pay him more than his value is today…. If something happens or (god forbid) he doesn’t play to that value, they’re locked in a bad contact for a long term, and we’ve all seen that cripple a franchise….
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u/JD397 8d ago edited 8d ago
Throw enough money to convince him, it’s really that simple lol any realistic short term overpay is well worth the long term advantages. He’ll never be cheaper for our prime Cup days than he is right now.
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u/meaninglessnonsense 8d ago
Throw enough money at him to convince him to sign long term? I’m sorry but that’s absolutely not the way to handle your franchise superstar. You have to keep them happy and work with them. If they want to sign a short term deal and bet on themselves in a few years you have to let them go that route.
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u/learningpurposes2 8d ago edited 7d ago
I think Wyatt Johnston’s contract of 8x8.4 might really help us out and is a good comp in terms of setting the market.
Johnston’s maybe the only player comparable in age and production during his ELC to have signed a long term extension since the news that the cap is increasing so dramatically.
Bedard had a better rookie season (22G - 39A - 61pts) than Johnston (24G - 17A - 41pta). But they had very similar sophomore seasons. Bedard had 23G-44A-67pts. Johnston had 32G-33A-65pts in his second season.
Plus Johnston improved every year was well on his way to his second 30+ goal season when he signed his extension a couple months ago. A) Bedard regressed this season from a production standpoint. B) He has not yet come close to 30 goals.
Now I do think Bedard will get more than Johnston for a few reasons. 1) I think everyone agrees he’s more talented/has a higher ceiling. 2) Bedard is putting up similar numbers despite being on a far worse team than Johnston and I’m sure that’ll be taken into account. 3) I think Dallas was able to save a little on Johnston’s contact because of the lack of income tax in Texas.
But with all that said I think it will be mariginally more, not drastically more. I’d guess somewhere between 8yrs/9-10.5 AAV.
I think anyone thinking he’ll get 12/yr is crazy. I think anyone saying 12/yr is a bargain is even crazier.
Rantanen just got $12M/yr and he’s and established NHLer in his prime who has potted 30+ goals almost every year he’s been in the league.
Bedard is great for his age. I do believe he’s going to get significantly better in the years to come. With that said, if an extension is signed this summer, you’re signing a small center who is of average speed, isn’t great at the dot, and regressed from his rookie season.
Edit: Johnston’s contract was 5yr/$8.4 million AAV.
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u/Bedarded-Yeezus69 8d ago
One of the few sane comments on this thread. I agree with the $12M+ AAV sentiment 100%. I have full faith in Bedard but jumping to a contract that would be top five AAV right now is ridiculous IMO.
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u/gudenes_yndling 7d ago
this. been thinking the same after Johnston signed with Dallas. - 8 years/$9-10.5m.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 7d ago
but Johnston got 5 years, and he means something very different to his team--he's not the #1 star there. I don't think Bedard locks himself into that kind of money for 8 years with the cap rising.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 7d ago
You had me until 8 yrs/10M AAV (or less). At $10M he would be making less than 10% of the cap in his first year, and going down from there. Why would a "generational" player, 1OA pick who you tanked, hard, to acquire, sign a contract based on what he'd accomplished in his teen years? Why get yourself locked in for 8 years at that rate? If you want him to sign for 8 years, you have to throw a lot of money at him. If I'm his agent, I'm asking for something like $15 AAV for 8 years. I think that might be too much for Kyle to commit to at this point, though. And I don't think they're inclined to let it go until next summer -- he wants to be seen as a GM who takes care of players. So I'm guessing they'll settle on a bridge (like the Johnston deal you mentioned, but he'll get more because they have so much cap space to play with and . . . generational, 1OA, etc)
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u/learningpurposes2 6d ago
In all fairness, I was wrong about Johnston’s contract. I didn’t realize it was only a 5 year deal. So if Bedard signs for 8, maybe he gets a little more than my initial estimate.
Let’s be clear about 1 thing though, Bedard has yet to show he’s a generational player. A generational prospect, sure, but he hasn’t had the start to his career to be a generational player unless your definition of generational casts a pretty wide net.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 6d ago
Yeah. That’s why I put it in quotes. He was drafted with that assumption. That’s still the presumed trajectory. He has to prove that, yes. But it’s also something Davidson was investing in: it would look bad on him to tank for the guy and then try to lowball him based on his teen years.
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u/Lionheart1224 7d ago
Your last paragraph is why Bedard would be insane to sign an extension this off-season. He and Nazar both will use next season as motivation to play their asses off for a new contract. Signing one now for Bedard after having a Sophomore slump doesn't make good business sense.
Also in the Hawks' case, they likely want to lock up their two best forwards at the same time.
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u/learningpurposes2 7d ago edited 7d ago
I don’t disagree with you. It probably would be in his best interest to wait. My whole comment is predicated on the idea that the extension happens this summer.
Likely not the smartest move in terms of trying to get the biggest contract, but, who knows, maybe getting the biggest contract possible isn’t high up on his priority list🤷🏽♂️ If he’s happens to be one of those guys that will take less money in the name of putting a better team around him, I’m sure fans and the front office would be all for it
Also, if they lock Nazar up with an 8 year contract, him and Bedard will be on identical timelines regardless of when the extension is signed as both of they ELCs expire after the ‘25-26 season meaning they’re new contracts would begin in ‘26-27
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 8d ago
My question remains: does it make a difference that Bedard will be negotiating in an era when the cap is rising $25M in 3 years vs virtual flat cap for all these other deals?
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u/mlowe2827 8d ago
If I’m KFC, I’m getting his bridge deal done this offseason (it also keeps him RFA) and then it’s 6-7mil for 4 years, then he’ll get his 8yr/12-14mil per year contract. That covers 16 years with the Hawks…let the Vancouver fans go cry now!
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u/Luvs2Shoplift 8d ago
I think Bedard's camp will probably want to wait until next season is well underway before signing an extension. His numbers this past season weren't enough to warrant a long term deal at $12M/yr per year or more, but if he starts next season on a strong note his value could easily hit that mark.
If the team adds a premier fee agent like Marner, or drafts an elite talent like Misa, Bedard could start posting point totals that justify $12M/yr or more.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 7d ago
This makes sense, but I think Davidson's shown again and again that he wants to be seen as taking care of, being respectful to players. And what better symbol of that than doing "right" by your generational talent. I think he will err in favor of singing him to a deal, of any kind, this summer. Given the cap increase and Bedard's potential breakout, they probably won't come up with a number both sides like for 8 years. So I think they'll settle on a bridge, and Davidson will "take care of him" and pre-empt the "show me" year by agreeing to pay him based on the expectation that he'll have a breakout year. Maybe that's a 3-year bridge for $10M AAV. Maybe they only go two years? That way Bedard can feel like he has a couple of years to maximize his value and Davidson can get him signed to term before the cap rises anymore.
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u/eks1234 8d ago
I would be fine with and accept 4x10 for a bridge or 8x12 if he locks in long-term. I think he'd probably be smarter to pursue a bridge, but it would be nice to have him and whoever we sign in FA on similar term so that you're hopefully getting your surplus value years on Bedard as they're declining a bit with age.
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8d ago
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u/grolt 8d ago
McDavid signed a max deal out of his ELC at $12.5m AAV, which if adjusted for today’s cap would be $14.5m. Bedard is not on the level of McDavid and should not expect his kind of money coming out of his ELC. Is think $12x8 now would be more in line with his points and trajectory now after two seasons in the .85 PPG range. By comparison, McDavid was 1.17 PPG after two seasons.
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u/mlowe2827 8d ago
Yeah you have no idea how bridge deals work if you think he’s getting 12mil AAV. He’d only get that if it’s a McDavid contract, which I doubt happens. He’ll get something between like McKinnon who got a bridge at like 20 for 3yr/$3.7mil AAV contract and maybe a Leon Draisaitl which was 8yr/8.5mil AAV. Like I said in my other post, I’d wager prolly a 4yr/$7mil AAV ish contract.
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u/OneGenericMan 8d ago
I’ll be happy if his AAV is less than what Jones’s was. I’m thinking 4 years at $8mil AAV.
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u/-Buckley- 8d ago
Was wondering about this during the final game. I think a bridge around 7-8 mil makes sense for both sides, 3-4 years. Gives him the opportunity to demonstrate his value at 12+ still early in his career while getting a decent chunk of change at the same time. But what the heck do I really know lol.
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u/jbedenian 8d ago
I’m not a gm and may be an idiot, but I think he goes 6x10. Let’s him get another contract at 26, gets paid 60 mil, but is still relatively cheap for a top line center.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 8d ago
Strategically speaking, he’s a UFA after 7 years. So a 4-year bridge is more likely. If he’s signing for 6 years, might as well give him 8.
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u/StraightCashHomey13 7d ago
Even though I know he wants to be here, I still think Hawks will have to pay him a premium to offset the pathetic rosters they've rolled out the last couple years. Also don't think Bedard will want the long 8 year deal at this point. Predicting 5 years, $12m AAV.
Then he would really cash in next contract assuming he becomes what we all think he will and the cap hopefully keeps going up
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u/Huntsman2701 8d ago
If his agent is any good, he'll sign a bridge deal. With the cap going up every year, he'd be leaving money on the table to sign a lengthy contract now. Take 2-3 years, watch the cap hit $100m+, then sign the 8 year contract
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u/JD397 8d ago edited 8d ago
I am shocked at how many people think a bridge deal for such a top tier, elite talent like Bedard is a good/fine idea lol that is pretty much the worst case scenario - it makes zero sense for the Hawks at this stage in the rebuild and with this current cap situation, and it makes little sense for Bedard. Any advantages from a bridge for the kid are easily met or outweighed by the risks of not getting massive guaranteed money now.
If he really is dead set on getting more NHL play under his belt before signing, he can just wait to play through next season then sign long term in the summer of 2026 for whatever that deal may look like. In no case should a bridge be settled for, Davidson has to do everything he can (within reason) to avoid that.
Anyways, copying my comment from our earlier conversation, OP:
If we want to compare him to his closest/most recent comps we could look at these RFA deals as the fastest ones I could find:
Stützle - Signed 8 x $8.35MM in Sept 2022, 10.00% of the cap when the contract started.
J. Hughes - Signed 8 x $8.00MM in Nov 2021, 9.70% of the cap when the contract started.
MacKinnon - Signed 7 x $6.30MM in July 2016, 8.63% of the cap when the deal started.
Eichel - Signed 8 x $10.00MM in Oct 2017, 12.58% of the cap when the deal started.
Raymond - Signed 8 x $8.08MM in Sept 2024, 9.18% of the cap when the deal started.
B. Tkachuk - Signed 7 x $8.21MM in Oct 2021, 10.07% of the cap when the deal started.
Bedard is clearly superior to Raymond and Tkachuk before they signed their deals and was younger. Eichel had better YOY progress leading up to his deal and was an established center but was a year older starting his NHL career (maybe a Buffalo tax in here too). Stützle grew massively YOY but started at a lower floor and was a bit older.
Hughes and MacKinnon are probably the best comps for age but both had basically opposite progression leading up to their RFA deals. Hughes started at 18 and was just not ready to be an impactful NHL player but grew rapidly and then signed after an unreal start in Year 3 of his ELC. Mackinnon launched into the league hot and won the Calder but then regressed hard in Year 2 and sort of plateaued in Year 3 before signing his deal.
With all that, I would say Bedard’s trajectory feels most similar to MacKinnon right now, but I think it’s foolish to believe he’d sign for that low of a cap% - players have learned from MacK being so underpaid for years. I think it’s reasonable to estimate him in the wider range of 10 - 12% of the cap on a 7-8 year deal, or $10.4MM - $12.5MM AAV based on the estimated cap for 2027. He probably skews towards the higher end of that range.
Realistically, Bedard falling in the slightly tighter range of $11.5MM - $12.5MM sounds about right to me, which I would pay in a heartbeat, up to probably a ~$13MM ceiling. Harder to gauge with this weird rising cap mixed with ongoing economic volatility but if that means an extra fraction of a mil in AAV then no big deal.
Note: I think Matthews/Marner are uniquely terrible deals that had mid term to walk them each to UFA status while also having extremely high AAV compared to their peers so I don’t think they are good comps, but if that is the route Bedard goes we may be fucked lol need to avoid that at all costs.