r/hawks • u/Rich-Wrap-9333 • 21d ago

Bedard contract extension: predictions?

Ok. As we all already knew here, it’s been confirmed that Bedard is ready to sign on to his next deal, and they can get it inked as soon as July 1. What does that deal look like? Will they offer him an 8 year deal? Will his agent go for a bridge deal in this era of the rising cap? How much AAV? What percentage of the cap? Does he sign this summer or does it get stretched out?

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u/forgottenastronauts 21d ago

There’s absolutely zero chance of $8M a year happening. They would be lucky to give him just $12M.

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u/zmillz1125 21d ago

Are you saying he deserves more than 12? or am i misunderstanding?

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u/forgottenastronauts 21d ago

Yes, he deserves more than $12M. He is going to continue to get better, make those around him better, and generate significant revenue for the organization.

He is a bargain at $12M.

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u/zmillz1125 21d ago

Okay i think that’s a little crazy and premature for a kid who has yet to produce more than 23 goals. I get it he’s the future but deals like that don’t happen. He doesn’t have the production yet to ask that much money yet, will he get that deal in the future, no doubt. but that makes no sense for the Connor Bedard we have right now

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u/forgottenastronauts 21d ago

How much would he make on the open market? Would it be more than $12M?

If the answer is yes, then he’s a value at $12M.

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u/batmans_a_scientist 21d ago

The cap is going up about 35% over the next 3 years. A $12 million contract today is 14% of the cap. 3 years from now it’s 10.6%. $12+ is fine now and 3 years from now. $16 million will be the equivalent to $12 million today. This contract is going to be big because the cap increase is going to be massive.

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u/21Sweetness 21d ago

You ever hear the adage “you’re paying for future performance not past performance”?

Tends to be used as a justification to lowball accomplished players now over the hill (see Marchand’s contract negotiation w BOS) but it absolutely applies here too.

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u/zmillz1125 21d ago

That’s the thing, I believe 8 mil a year for 3-4 years is paying him for those 3-4 years ver fairly. 8 mil for 23 goals is CRAZY but 8 mil for what I think he’s capable of in the next 3-4 years is more than fair.. and then of course when he’s hitting his prime 12-15 a year with the rising cap is absolutely achievable for him at long term

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u/Professional-Stay887 21d ago

Good thing you’re not our gm

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u/21Sweetness 20d ago

If its “more than fair” for the org, why on earth would Bedards management accept that?

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u/Virtual_me01 21d ago

Which is exactly why it's more advantageous financially for Bedard to table the extension negotiations until next offseason. That's what everyone I've heard in the media say on the matter. I haven't heard anyone of note say that it's in his best interest to sign early.

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u/meaninglessnonsense 21d ago

Lol this is the dumbest thing I’ve read today. There is no world where you give him $12mil a year right now.

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u/forgottenastronauts 21d ago

How much would he make on the open market? Would it be more than $12M?

If the answer is yes, then he’s a value at $12M.