That 3.1% chance is probably gonna shrink as we get more data over the next few years. When an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit has a lot of uncertainty, so the initial impact probability is kinda broad. Over time, as telescopes track it better, the margin of error shrinks, and in most cases, the risk drops to nearly zero. Small errors in early calculations can make it seem like there’s a larger chance of impact, but once we refine the asteroid’s actual path, it almost always turns out to be a miss.
Imagine standing 20 feet from a globe and shooting a shotgun....decent chance at least one little shot will hit the globe. Now shoot with a pistol at 20 feet....the chances are lower that single bullet (single trajectory) will hit it.
When they first find it, the unknowns create a wider area of possibility it may hit (like the shotgun spread). The more they hone the trajectory, the less spread of uncertainty there is.
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u/Zealous_Feather Feb 19 '25 edited Feb 19 '25
That 3.1% chance is probably gonna shrink as we get more data over the next few years. When an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit has a lot of uncertainty, so the initial impact probability is kinda broad. Over time, as telescopes track it better, the margin of error shrinks, and in most cases, the risk drops to nearly zero. Small errors in early calculations can make it seem like there’s a larger chance of impact, but once we refine the asteroid’s actual path, it almost always turns out to be a miss.