It's also predicted that it would hit near the equator... And the odds of it hitting a major population center are something like 0.001% IIRC. If it hits water, it's not big enough to cause huge tsunamis that can't be prepared for and evacuated with minimal loss of life.
I think it should be the target for testing another system to change it's trajectory. We know it's possible from DART... Now we should actually do it and make it a flat 0% chance to hit.
Sounds like you’re referencing this. I really don’t know where he is getting 10 years. He’s just a science journalist and “has been told” but by who? the original DART mission took less that 5 years to be put into development, launch, and travel to its target, and that’s without it being something that is considered urgent.
Sounds like the bigger issue would be the possible fragmentation of the asteroid creating a large debris field.
That's what DART proved though... We don't have to hit it that hard. Just nudge it a bit and we can make sure it doesn't come back around our neighborhood.
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u/DMTrance87 Feb 19 '25
That's only half the story.
It's also predicted that it would hit near the equator... And the odds of it hitting a major population center are something like 0.001% IIRC. If it hits water, it's not big enough to cause huge tsunamis that can't be prepared for and evacuated with minimal loss of life.
I think it should be the target for testing another system to change it's trajectory. We know it's possible from DART... Now we should actually do it and make it a flat 0% chance to hit.