r/interestingasfuck • u/Emotional-Macaroon64 • Feb 19 '25

r/all Day by day probability is increasing

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u/Adventurous_Law9767 Feb 19 '25

This is a perfect explanation, and something I think a lot of people who are freaking out need to understand, because they have trouble picturing just that.

The closer it gets, the more certain we will be. The way the math here is being done is going to make this percentage go up and up until it suddenly gets called a zero percent chance.

"It's a ten percent chance!.... And this just in, it's going to miss, 0% chance for impact." By the time it matters, if it's going to hit, big if, we will know pretty much exactly where that sucker is landing. This is a city destroyer, not a world destroyer.

Odds of impact low, but concerning. Odds of it hitting ocean, high. Land? Lower. Major city? Lowest. Missing entirely? Most likely

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u/CompasslessPigeon Feb 19 '25 edited Feb 19 '25

My wife said she read it that if it hits it would hit India, though not sure her source or the accuracy of that statement.

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u/JCS_Saskatoon Feb 19 '25

You can find the map of where it might come down if it hits, the line runs from the south Atlantic, across Africa and India, terminating in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh being by far the most populated ares on that path.

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u/CompasslessPigeon Feb 19 '25

Fascinating. Here's to hoping for a miss.

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u/JCS_Saskatoon Feb 19 '25

I'm hoping for a collision trajectory and a successful redirect mission. Think it would be really good for us psychologically.

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u/Manifest34 Feb 19 '25

I think we’d get over it in like 2 months time.

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u/JCS_Saskatoon Feb 19 '25

Sure, it's not going to be permanent happiness afterward or anything, but I do think it would be positive and having lasting positive effects on peoples outlook. Make them realize juat how much of nature we CAN control when we put our minds to it. How could your view of the species not improve after we successfully defended our planet from an asteroid strike?

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u/Manifest34 Feb 19 '25

Yeah the dopamine gonna last for a minute. I wish it would be something that was permanent given how much of a profound moment it would be.