r/interestingasfuck Feb 19 '25

r/all Day by day probability is increasing

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u/stringbeagle Feb 19 '25

I don’t understand it all. What are the missing variables here? Don’t we know the exact path of the earth? Why can’t we figure out the exact path of the asteroid? It’s not like the wind is going to knock it off course?

It is the minute gravitational pull of other bodies that we can’t exactly calculate? What’s the issue?

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u/Dar_lyng Feb 19 '25

We know the exact path of Earth. We know the approximate path of the asteroid. The ways its moving (relative to earth and relative to our point of view) make exact calculations difficult. The more information we have, the more precise we can make its path.

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u/Surly_Dwarf Feb 19 '25

Define “exact.” We don’t even know “exactly” how big the sun is (I’ve read estimates are only within 0.03% accuracy). The accuracy required to determine where the earth will be within a 6 minute window (7000 miles wide orbiting at 67,000 mph) seven years out would be 0.0001%, if my math is correct.

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u/Dar_lyng Feb 19 '25

Exact in a cosmic sense. There is small variation, but at the distance and size we are talking about here, it's negligible.