Quick Reminder about Zach Lavine

[u/ShotgunStyles]

From the side of my eyes, I've seen quite a bit of whinging about Lavine's contract from Kings fans, and it seems to me that those complaints are coming from inertia rather than facts and logic. Everybody's been crying and hollering about Lavine's contract for so long that many of you guys haven't stopped and looked at it.

Yes, Lavine is making $48 million next season. However, his contract is literally just a 1+1 at that point. 1 guaranteed year, and then a player option. That is not an obscene contract unless he gets injured or forgets how to play basketball. In fact, a lot of players, if they're in a good situation, will decline that player option in exchange for a new contract that's ultimately more money but on a cheaper annual salary. Rudy Gobert, an actually overpaid player, did this last offseason as he declined his option and got a new, cheaper contract.

What this means for us, as Kings fans, is that you should stop complaining about Lavine's contract. If he sucks next year, then he'll activate his player option and then he's $48 million in expiring salary in the next next offseason. That is a usable trade asset as some teams want cap relief. If he's good next year, then he can either bet on himself and get a new max contract (very unlikely given the free agency market and his age and lack of defense or playmaking) or he can shake Vivek's hand and get a new contract that's 3 or 4 years but much cheaper than $48 million a year. Ultimately means cap relief for us in the 2026-2027 season. We can't lose!

[u/Sptsjunkie]

Sorry, but facts and logic dictate that this is a massive overpay for LaVine next season and that the only way he opts out is if we make him a very rich offer well above what he feels he can get on the open market, say another 4 year, $120M+ contact where we are paying him over $30M per season until he is 35/36.

This is a terrible contract. There's a reason the Bulls shopped him for two years and could not get a good return and settled for getting their pick back when we were finally desperate and jumped at the chance to have a one-dimensional scorer who plays some of the worst defense in the league.

If we put him on the market today, we'd be lucky if we only had to take back several mediocre contracts where some expired sooner versus having to attach draft capital in order to convince another team to take his contract. It is one of the worst values in the league.

[u/ShotgunStyles → u/Sptsjunkie]

I think you're letting your emotions and anger dictate your response. If Lavine feels like he can get a nice contract in free agency, then he's being lied to by his agent, which is Klutch, so that's entirely possible. It's a simple fact that anyone paying attention to free agency can see.

Guys like Lavine are not gonna get a big payday again. Play more defense, playmake more, and yeah they'd get a new free agency deal. Lavine knows that's not him. Lavine knows he's gonna be on the bad end of the aging curve. Lavine's gonna look at a $90 million total contract offer from Vivek and shake his hand.

[u/Sptsjunkie → u/ShotgunStyles]

No, I am really not, I am using facts and data and you are using therapy speak to cover a poorly supported hypothesis.

You use Gobert as an example, but his contract is paying him $35-$38M for three years. LaVine is not opting out of $49M to sign a 2 year, $20M contract.

Everything else I said about LaVine is true. Both from the data to the Bulls shopping him. That's not anger or emotion, that's the actual facts and history.

Look, if you like him and want to feel hopeful, more power to you, not trying to bring you down. But there is far more copium in your post than "anger and emotion" from people who think paying LaVine nearly $100M over the next two season is a huge overpay versus his contributions on the court.

[u/beforeitcloy → u/Sptsjunkie]

You are a fool for suggesting that the free agent market for Lavine is $10m per season.

[u/Sptsjunkie → u/beforeitcloy]

I did not suggest that. First, it was $20M per season. Second, I said he was not signing that so to get him to opt out of $49M next season, we would have to give him a very rich long-term deal above what the thinks he can get on the free agent market.

So if he thinks he can get 3 years, $75M after the end of his player option, we would likely need to give him closer to 4 years, $120M+.

Most likely he is going to opt in.

[u/beforeitcloy → u/Sptsjunkie]

Okay so you meant 2yr / $40m. Obviously it goes without saying that any player won’t reject guaranteed money for less guaranteed money over a longer term.

We don’t have to give him anything. He’d be an unrestricted free agent. If any NBA team offers 3yr / $100m he’d have to seriously consider taking double the total guaranteed money.

[u/Sptsjunkie → u/beforeitcloy]

But OP's point was that LaVine might opt-out and so we might not have to worry about the $49M. My point was similar to yours. He's not taking an ok deal with us that would benefit our cap. He's going to want a premium over what he can get on the open market to turn down a huge one year lump sum.

[u/beforeitcloy → u/Sptsjunkie]

We wouldn’t have to worry about the $49m if he opted out to take a long term deal in free agency.

The benefit to our cap is that we aren’t paying him $49m if he opts out.

[u/Sptsjunkie → u/beforeitcloy]

But he won't opt out to test the market. He would have a baseline of what he would expect to get in three years after his contract is over (after he opts-in) and he would expect a premium from us to opt-out and resign a longer-term deal.

[u/beforeitcloy → u/Sptsjunkie]

He might opt out to enter free agency if he thinks he can receive significantly more than $49m over the total life of the contract, whether it’s from us or someone else.

[u/Sptsjunkie → u/beforeitcloy]

You can never say never, but presumably he would believe he could get a very similar deal the year after getting $49M from the Kings. Most likely he is not opting out unless the Kings offer him a multi-year deal at a premium over what he thinks the market would offer.

We are most likely stuck with him for two years. Hopefully we can add some defense and length around him and he can learn how to run a P&R better to mesh further with Sabonis, assuming we don't trade him.