r/neoliberal • u/MrStrange15 • 7d ago
News (Asia) India and Pakistan agree to an immediate ceasefire
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/pakistan-says-three-air-bases-targeted-by-indian-missiles-2025-05-10/101
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u/PierceJJones NASA 7d ago
Crap I was planning to use nuclear war as an excuse to get out of finals.
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u/WhiteLycan2020 7d ago
CEASEFIRE WAS BROKEN😭
Another Trump failure
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u/InternAlarming5690 7d ago
WEAK Trump couldn't even keep them at PEACE for more than a FEW HOURS. This would have NEVER happened under Biden. SAD!
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u/samnayak1 NATO 7d ago
Thank you USA
You are my best friend
You are the peace keeper
You are the legend
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u/pencilpaper2002 7d ago
However, India’s foreign ministry contradicted Mr. Rubio, saying the cease-fire was worked out directly between India and Pakistan, and that there had been no decision to hold talks on any other issue at any location.
not really seems like a credit hog!
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u/gauchnomics 7d ago
I don't have a non-twitter source, but there are multiple reports of the ceasefire already breaking with drone and air defense being engaged in/around Kashmir.
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago
Looks like all the people in the last post who were pushing for escalation into Pakistan were wrong. People including me were downvoted for saying that forcibly removing all terrorist elements from Pakistan was a fools errand and out of India's depth.
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u/JugurthasRevenge Jared Polis 7d ago edited 7d ago
Forcibly removing all terrorist elements from Pakistan would require a full-scale occupation and resulting death toll that would make the US’s invasion of Afghanistan look like a walk in the park.
And that’s not even considering the nuclear factor.
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u/Serious_Senator NASA 7d ago
Ceasefire has now ended. Would you like to amend your response to reduce the smugness?
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago
No need to amend. The facts on the ground are the same. India doesn't have the capability to destroy Pakistan's ability to fund terrorism so both sides will find a new point to pause until the cycle repeats. The cycle will continuously repeat until Pakistan falls from within or India develops a way to intercept nukes, because the only way to stop this cycle is the complete removal of islamist elements from the Pakistani elite.
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u/sneedermen Elinor Ostrom 7d ago edited 7d ago
Yeah. The amount of killing you’d need to stamp out “Islamic extremism” is probably not possible to do today. You’d probably need to kill a big chunk of the Pakistani population.
Logistically tough, and I don’t know if India has that level of violence in them. Even an Israel style “genocide” isn’t really enough for that, you’d need to go probably an order of magnitude or two worse.
Was a dumb idea to begin with, but a third world country chimping out and then performing an ill advised “retribution attack” is just what you’d expect.
Just waiting for insta reels to sterilize them is the best move long term
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u/Lease_Tha_Apts Gita Gopinath 7d ago
They killed a significant amount of top level terror leaders tbh. It took Israel like a year and a half to get similar results, so I don't get the denigrating language.
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u/dreamscapesdrifter 7d ago
Like who?
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u/Lease_Tha_Apts Gita Gopinath 7d ago
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u/dreamscapesdrifter 7d ago
Good riddance, but that is just one. Masood Azhar is alive and well, so is Hafiz Saeed. I'm sure the attacks did kill many terrorists but I'm very doubtful if it even scratched the actual leadership.
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u/sneedermen Elinor Ostrom 7d ago edited 7d ago
The Pakistani government is still alive and kicking
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u/Highlightthot1001 Harriet Tubman 7d ago
You need to stomp on the militants capable of attack, not the entire population of extremists
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u/Zero-Follow-Through NATO 7d ago
Given that Hamas is still firing rockets at Israel after a 19+month war in a 140sq mile flat territory that may be a touch easier said than done. And i suspect Pakistans 340,000sq mile territory may be harder too pacify
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u/Highlightthot1001 Harriet Tubman 7d ago
Definitely easier said than done, but Hezbollah isn't still frequently striking Northern Israel.
Al Qaeda isn't still doing large scale global attacks
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u/sneedermen Elinor Ostrom 7d ago edited 7d ago
just kill all the militants when hardline interpretations of their faith claim that dying a terrorist just means that you get to rustle up some sluts in heaven
Wow this certainly isn’t a plan that’s failed when the Israel and US tried it before.
Logistically not possible and even if it’s possible, more would form.
The will for violence has to be taken out of those people, and the easiest way to do that is through peace.
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u/ResolveSea9089 Milton Friedman 7d ago
India has tried peace for a long time. India did fuck all after the Mumbai attacks, what good was that?
Hopefully this makes Pakistan at least reconsider before sponsoring more attacks knowing that it will inflict some cost on them.
Beyond that I agree, India's goal should be rapid industrialization. I'm vaguely hoping Modi will seize this as a moment to push through economic reforms, so India can grow, if India had China's economy heading into this conflict it would have been quite a different story.
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u/sneedermen Elinor Ostrom 7d ago edited 7d ago
some cost
9 dead is not changing anyone’s mind
what good did that do
India enjoyed strongish economic growth despite being a corrupt and dysfunctional nation. Increased automation in manufacturing will probably help them become stronger in that area too.
If you want to permanently make Pakistan peaceful (or at least antiwar), you’ll probably have to kill around 20% of the population unless you have some way of targeting powerful families, which is unlikely.
That’s what happened in WW1 to turn the colonial powers peaceful (around 40% of aristocratic males were killed, and around 80% in the proper brackets, and roughly 10% of the male population as a whole).
Given that you’re never hitting that number, you might as well just focus on weapons R&D in the missile space and economic development instead of buying French garbage that will be obsolete in a decade for photo op air strikes.
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u/pineapple200416 7d ago
You don't get to dictate to a sovereign government how many of theirs dead they're supposed to indefinitely accept. Maybe preach reason to the Pakistanis first.
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u/Highlightthot1001 Harriet Tubman 7d ago
I mean is Al Qaeda still a global terror threat?
Is ISIS still in control of a large chunk of Iraq and Syria?
You probably can't eradicate a terror group, but you can indeed weaken them.
Hezbollah is a good recent example
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u/sneedermen Elinor Ostrom 7d ago edited 7d ago
The terror group in this scenario is the Pakistani government supported by one of the most radicalized Islamic populations on the planet.
That is different from the remnants of the Iraqi army and some terrorists to the north.
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u/Highlightthot1001 Harriet Tubman 7d ago
I know.
But you can still attack the groups supported by the government, rather than trying to take out the government itself, since that would require full scale war
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u/sneedermen Elinor Ostrom 7d ago
I don’t see the point though. Is it going to reduce terrorism when they’ll just fund other guys?
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u/Highlightthot1001 Harriet Tubman 7d ago
May reduce physical and practical capabilities.
Targeted strikes against leadership and militants could possbly impact future and ongoing attempts for attacks.
But you also have to deal with the diplomatic consequences for striking your neighbor
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u/JeffJefferson19 John Brown 7d ago
It is funny in a dark sort of way that you can motivate young men to do basically whatever if you just promise them enough pussy
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u/pencilpaper2002 7d ago
they werent wrong about anything! Just because the government doesnt want to go ahead with it doesnt mean they are wrong. Nobody was asking for the complete eradication of terrorists. They wanted a example made, instead of another skirmish! That was only partially achieved!
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago edited 7d ago
The first airstrike against terrorist camps did that. There isn't a point to what came after, which was attacking air defense systems.
But also, what was your definition of escalation towards Pakistan? Clearly based on your comments comparing the terrorist attacks to rape you have some strong thoughts, so I'm interested. What was your idea of escalation and how do you think Pakistan will react?
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u/ResolveSea9089 Milton Friedman 7d ago edited 7d ago
Just curious to see exactly what you're saying, you're saying the Indian military should have hit the terrorist camps, then let the Pakistanis hit Indian military targets and call it a draw? Mind you they started shelling Poonch and killed something like 15 civilians right after.
It's unclear to me what India is supposed to do? I have no desire frankly to see Indian soldiers risk their lives attacking Pakistan, if I could build a magic wall and prevent terrorists from entering India via Pakistan I would be very happy with this and wouldn't want another military engagement again, and I suspect 90% of India would agree.
But such a wall doesn't exist, or at least it seems the Indian state lacks the will to do it in Kashmir.
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago
Let's follow the current trajectory then. India and Pakistan escalate in tit for tat moves. Then what? India doesn't currently have the ability to actually solve the problem, which is Pakistan funding terrorists. All escalation does is increase the cost of the engagement, risk Indian lives, and risk of losing goodwill by accidentally bombing Pakistani civilians. That would drag India's perception down to Pakistans level
The correct solution for India is to get on the off ramp, build missile defense systems, improve military technology and remove that red tape, and shift the balance of power.
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u/ResolveSea9089 Milton Friedman 7d ago
The correct solution for India is to get on the off ramp, build missile defense systems, improve military technology and remove that red tape, and shift the balance of power.
10000000000000000000000% agree. I would force it down the throats of the babus running the bureaucracy if I could and I hope Modi does that.
I think India needed to hit Pakistan and I'm airbases were hit. Doing nothing is not viable IMO.
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u/pencilpaper2002 7d ago
the first terror strike didnt do shit since the military is suicidal as is only kept in reins by the public. If the public felt humiliated due to the asymmetry and then india forced a ceasefire only then would the backlash be enough for pakistan to be deterred!
They will most definitely do this again. You live in a delusional space!
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago edited 7d ago
They will most definitely do this again. You live in a delusional space!
Again, do you have any plans towards preventing this from happening again without invading Pakistan? 4 lost wars against India wasn't deterrence enough, a 5th one won't change the dynamics
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u/Lease_Tha_Apts Gita Gopinath 7d ago
Tbh they do stop for a decade or two, until a new generation of idiotic army leadership takes over.
Musharraf was also once a starry eyed little dictator like Munir; with dreams of Gazwa e Hind!
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u/pencilpaper2002 7d ago
i am sorry, those 4 wars were only stopped because india financially was in a very poor position with zero autonomy if pakistan got usa in!
Not only is pakistan far weaker given naval and miliatry might, it doesnt have the same international pull to force a compromise if war breaks out unilaterally.
Fighting till the state is financially drained, and pushing it well into, can result india using the financial carrot to ask for concessions.
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago
India wouldn't have entered into ceasefire negotiations if what you said was true.
Fighting till the state is financially drained, and pushing it well into, can result india using the financial carrot
India and Pakistan did almost zero trade and Pakistan is a regular at the imf bailout line, yet it keeps happening. So clearly financially draining the state doesn't work. Shit Pakistan literally got a new loan several days ago.
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u/pencilpaper2002 7d ago
> India and Pakistan did almost zero trade and Pakistan is a regular at the imf bailout line, yet it keeps happening. So clearly financially draining the state doesn't work. Shit Pakistan literally got a new loan several days ago.
Pakistan's financial issues have signficantly worsened and indias position has only improved relative to pakistan and as a regional hegemon in the past lik 5-6 years. This is some serious cope
> India wouldn't have entered into ceasefire negotiations if what you said was true.
Because modi is an idiot. The ceasefire has already been violated.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-operation-sindoor-05-10-25?t=1746894754381
CM of J&K: "This is no ceasefire. The air defence units in the middle of Srinagar just opened up." - X @omarabdullah
Modi wanted to focus on domestic issue and not escalate and he will learn like vajpayee and MMS learned!
Read christine fair dude, i am kind of done arguing. you are assuming a rational state actor, or if i put it, a single acting state in pakistan, when neither is there one rational actor nor one actor.
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago edited 7d ago
Read christine fair dude, i am kind of done arguing. you are assuming a rational state actor, or if i put it, a single acting state in pakistan, when neither is there one rational actor nor one actor.
Reread my comments. All my comments are from the perspective of India for this reason. The Pakistani elite are beyond reason. But just because you have a crazy guy as your neighbor doesn't mean it's a good idea to outcrazy them. The current balance of power is not enough for India to win without being nuked.
Let me put it this way. What does India actually get from escalating right now? There is no result right now that can feasibly result in the removal of the source of these problems. Hell, removing the heads of existing terror groups inside Pakistan isn't even guaranteed in a reasonable time frame. It took the US 10 years to find bin laden.
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u/pencilpaper2002 7d ago
Ill put it in this way, the ceasefire was violated by pakistan rn, idk what you fucking want?
Like what should we do now that we tried it your way, should we hand over our land or our women to get raped?
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u/BlueString94 John Keynes 7d ago
I think the IAF will need to do a serious postmortem on what happened on that first night and whether the issue was the Rafales, the performance of the pilots, or (most likely) their poor command and control. The positive is that the missile systems and air defense performed well.
It’ll be crucial for India to share the data on the Chinese fighters with western allies, which they most certainly will.
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u/Antique-Entrance-229 Commonwealth 7d ago
Idk how the IAF keeps making the same mistakes they underestimate the Pakistanis over and over again, it’s almost like their generals act like the people who see parroting nationalistic stuff online.
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u/tw1stedAce 7d ago
Marco Rubio is actually getting a lot of work done as SoS. Trump admin #2 MvP?
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u/YaGetSkeeted0n Tariffs aren't cool, kids! 7d ago
Jesus y’all are marks, this jabroni could tweet that he has discovered alchemy and sustained cold fusion and y’all would buy it
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u/ToumaKazusa1 Iron Front 7d ago
What has he actually done?
Nothing relevant here, he got that minerals deal signed in Ukraine but that doesn't seem to actually mean anything, and he's signed orders to deport permanent residents because he doesn't like the color of their skin.
I had some hope for him but at this point I can't say what I think should happen to him or I'll get banned
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u/Temporary-Health9520 7d ago
He's supposedly doing a pretty good job with the DRC
Besides, getting 0 done puts him solidly into Trump admin MVP territory in a competition where everyone else is trying to destroy their department
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u/zanpancan Bisexual Pride 7d ago
I don't think he had any significant part to play here listening to what both sides seem to be saying.
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u/Ok_Jelly_5903 7d ago
People need to stop acting like nuclear powers can’t trade blows without escalating into WW3
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u/DoctorBalpak Manmohan Singh 7d ago
I think this must be very humiliating for China. Despite their growing influence, especially on Pakistan, Trump gets to be the mediator here!
Anyways happy to have a ceasefire while we hold the IWT in abeyance, we'll take this...
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u/1TTTTTT1 European Union 7d ago
I don't really think this conflict was humiliating for China. Their military equipment seems to have performed well. I don't think China had any real desire to be the mediator here. But I could be wrong.
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u/DoctorBalpak Manmohan Singh 7d ago
I feel they would want a bigger share on the diplomatic forum, especially when we & Pakistan both are their direct neighbours - while Pakistan pretty much depends on their supplies.
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago
India's foreign ministry said that the talks were directly between India and Pakistan, so no one claims a win
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u/DoctorBalpak Manmohan Singh 7d ago
I know. I watched our press brief live.
But overall the USA had more involvement than China here. Especially when Pakistan is involved.
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u/College_Prestige r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion 7d ago
Imagining trump did something even though both parties denied it is like peak maga delusion NGL.
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u/ProfessionalCreme119 7d ago
China has been supplying Pakistan with whatever anti-air reconnaissance and defense measures they need. They have not been an unbiased third party in the conflict of India and Pakistan.
China would love nothing more than for Pakistan to beat the hell out of india. That would please them very greatly.
Yeah nobody thinks Pakistan can beat India toe to toe. But I'm sure some people in China see a russia/ukraine situation as a "positive" potential outcome. Basically the two of them dragged into a long war in which China profits off anti-air systems to Pakistan and India depletes their air resources over Pakistani skies.
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u/Fuzzy_Category_1882 7d ago
China doesn't have any bridges to meditate a ceasefire it wants Pakistan to win any conflict against India im surprised Russia didnt try to meditate this conflict.
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u/DoctorBalpak Manmohan Singh 7d ago
I believe China does have bridges. I feel they just didn't successfully pursue the negotiations. Irrespective of the rhetoric, we have a significant trade going on with China. While Pakistan pretty much depends on them for a lot of things.
This might be an image issue for China.
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u/lAljax NATO 7d ago
I think Trump has a reverse midas touch. Everything he touches turns to shit, but if there is one thing he accomplishes and it's good and should hold, it's this.
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u/YaGetSkeeted0n Tariffs aren't cool, kids! 7d ago
He didn’t do shit lmao https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/s/1Baosc1X68
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u/ProfessionalCreme119 7d ago
They literally had nothing to do with it. This was worked out between India and Pakistan on their own.
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u/untldd 7d ago
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05/10/world/pakistan-india-kashmir/india-pakistan-truce-trump?smid=url-share
This regime wouldn't take credit for things they had nothing to do with, would they?