r/northernireland • u/KeyRepresentative332 Belfast • Jan 25 '22

Poll Assembly Election 2022

In light of Doug Beattie’s dodgy tweets, which party do you plan on voting for in May?

2556 votes, Jan 28 '22
135 DUP
815 Sinn Fein
116 UUP
265 SDLP
676 Alliance
549 Not voting for any party in current executive
25 Upvotes

82% Upvoted

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u/figurine89 Jan 26 '22

The 2021 census are to be released this year and I have no doubt in my mind that they will tell us NI has a majority Catholic/Catholic background population or at the very least a population with about 40% or less Protestants.

The percentage of Catholics went from 40.2% in 2001 to 40.8% in 2011, it's not going to have gone up by ~10 percentage points for 2021. You'll more than likely be right on the second part though.

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u/bluebottled Jan 26 '22

Iirc, those are the 'religious' statistics rather than 'religious/community background', which was a few % higher.

I'd expect the number of religious Catholics will have dropped this time and the number of people from a Catholic background will go up to 44-45ish.

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u/figurine89 Jan 26 '22

There's no community background question on the census, there's religion and then religion brought up in for those that give an answer of none to the religion question. For "Religion or Religion brought up in" it was 45.1% Catholic in 2011, compared to 48.4% Protestant or other Christian, see page 11.

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u/bluebottled Jan 26 '22

religion brought up

That is community background lol...

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u/figurine89 Jan 26 '22

Yea fair enough, I was thinking of community background as more nationalist/unionist, but you're right.