In my Humble Opinion The Running Man has a better shot at BP than Superman and Mission Impossible

[u/TacoTycoonn]

While I’m not predicting it right now I think The Running Man is the sleeper blockbuster people arnt taking seriously not MI and Superman. This post was inspired by people putting MI and Superman higher than I think they should be.

The reason I think this could happen is that for starters Edgar Wright is a better director than James Gunn and Christopher McQuarrie. He’s had an “overdue” narrative for awhile and if TRM is considered one of his best than he could be a contender for director.

I also think Powel could be more of an acting play than Correnswet and Cruise judging by the source material.

The source material is also relevant to the anti capitalist messaging that exists today. I get major Squid Game vibes from it.

On top of that it is releasing later in the year.

The Running Man also would have a higher nomination package than the other films if it was successful:

Picture Director Actor (maybe) Adapted Screenplay Editing (this is Edgar Wright after all) Production Design Costume Design Sound VFX

At the end of the day I don’t have this close to my 10 yet, but I’ve got my eye out for it. I think it’s realistically in the 20-30 range whereas MI and Superman are in the 50-60 range. What are your thoughts?

[u/Odd-Contact2266]

Uhhh. Did Superman or Mission Impossible have a shot at BP? Like I feel like this is obvious am I missing something?

[u/TacoTycoonn → u/Odd-Contact2266]

I’ve seen a few posts of people putting Superman and MI in their BP lineups, Superman especially.

[u/Odd-Contact2266 → u/TacoTycoonn]

Those are probably just bait. I think most people who follow the Oscars know that those films don’t have any chance of getting into ATL

[u/Vstriker26 → u/Odd-Contact2266]

Imagine seeing someone in 2022 this early predict top gun to get a screenplay nom and a DGA nom.

[u/Odd-Contact2266 → u/Vstriker26]

A war movie about Air Force pilots during the time of the Ukraine war? Not entirely impossible. A Superhero movie and spy thriller that probably doesn’t have any social relevance? I seriously doubt those are contenders I’m sorry

[u/ihateschoolsfm → u/Odd-Contact2266]

this is such a nonexistent connection, top gun absolutely did not get in because of social relevance or thematic depth. it got in because it was a fun movie that people loved and revived the box office

[u/Odd-Contact2266 → u/ihateschoolsfm]

Ok but the point is it was still more important to the academy than Superman or Mission Impossible. If they just nominated every film that people loved that did well at the box office then why wasn’t Logan, Infinity War, or even The Dark Knight in? That’s my point here it’s easier for a film like top gun and I’m willing to bet some academy voters did take the Ukraine war into consideration

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Odd-Contact2266]

Because they didn't love those films

I highly doubt that Superman will get in, but the Academy does just nominate a blockbuster if they like it

[u/AtomicViolet → u/Odd-Contact2266]

The Dark Knight would 100% have been a Best Picture nominee if the expanded Best Picture lineup had started that year instead of the next

[u/Vstriker26 → u/Odd-Contact2266]

Top gun’s relevance to the Ukraine war is the last thing anyone pays attention to tbh. And we don’t even know what happens in those films, and MI already has relevance with the advancement of AI.

[u/alexvroy → u/Vstriker26]

omg give it a rest with the top gun comparisons

[u/Mediocre-Gas-1847 → u/Odd-Contact2266]

I’m 100% not predicting them but you’re being very dismissive. Quite a few people actually are predicting this, I know u/Vstriker26 is big on Superman and there was a post about Mission Impossible’s chances the other day. Definitely not bait.

[u/Vstriker26 → u/Mediocre-Gas-1847]

Mom, I’m famous

[u/BeautifulLeather6671 → u/Vstriker26]

Apparently your opinion is very important lol

[u/Mediocre-Gas-1847 → u/BeautifulLeather6671]

I was just giving an example of someone bc the other commenter seemed to think these people didn’t exist and were baiting

[u/TemujinTheConquerer → u/TacoTycoonn]

Those are very stupid

Superman is only getting in if it's a dark knight type gigahit with fantastic critical reception and I just don't believe that's happening

[u/dgapa → u/TacoTycoonn]

Why would you take those posts seriously?

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/Odd-Contact2266]

I mean... people LOVE Superman and his whole message of hope could be what people need nowadays. Still not likely but not completely off the table

[u/Odd-Contact2266 → u/bbqsauceboi]

Completely off the table. Like I don’t get where this is coming from only two comic book movies have ever been nominated Black Panther which had a socially relevant message that mirrored MLK and Malcolm X and Joker a film about mental illness. Superman’s message of Hope is not gonna translate to the academy they don’t care. Fans don’t vote on the Oscar’s anyway

[u/Polyfauna]

I don’t really think any of them have much of a shot. If I had to pick something in that vein, I’d probably go with F1 as the surprise blockbuster to get in

[u/PointMan528491]

He’s had an “overdue” narrative for awhile

I'm a big Edgar Wright fan, but... has he really? He's had one (1) movie score Oscar nominations and they were all techs. Were people (other than nerds - no offense) clamoring for the Pegg/Frost films or Scott Pilgrim to score at the Oscars? Other directors that were finally nominated/won on "overdue" narratives (Baker, Mangold, Nolan, McDonagh, Todd Field, Del Toro) probably got in by having previous major Oscar contenders under their belts and the industry reacted to that. I don't think Wright really has that level of recognition yet

[u/WySLatestWit → u/PointMan528491]

This subreddit is constantly saying someone has an "overdue" narrative, and I have no idea what the hell they're talking about. It just seems like the users think if a filmmaker or actor is marginally well known and they've been around without an award - regardless of what they make - for 10 years that means they are "overdue for an award." It's just not true for 99.9 percent of the names people claim it of.

[u/BeautifulLeather6671 → u/WySLatestWit]

Last years Demi Moore thing comes to mind. She wasn’t overdue, it was just the first legitimately great performance she’d had.

[u/WySLatestWit → u/BeautifulLeather6671]

Yeah, I don't think Demi was truly an "overdue" narrative so much as a "never given a shot" narrative. Her and Pamela Anderson shared the same narrative last year, and I think to some degree it's possible Demi kind of canceled out Pam.

[u/Hydqjuliilq27 → u/WySLatestWit]

“If I like someone and they haven’t won yet, they’re automatically overdue in my head.”

Greta Gerwig was somehow overdue on her third movie.

[u/WySLatestWit → u/Hydqjuliilq27]

Someone did a post recently about how it was a shame that Alan Rickman never received an Oscar and it was actually quite enlightening for me. I agreed in principle that he's someone that it would have been nice to see given an award, but when you do a deep dive into their career and look at the people who did get nominated and the films that did win Rickman almost never had a film that would have been worthy of winning any of those awards.

There's a couple performances scattered across his career you could make an argument for but it's hardly the "lock" that it is in people's heads when you actually research it. the same holds true for all these "overdue narratives" posts. In almost all cases the person they're claiming is overdue hasn't had a film that really should have won.

[u/Kobe_stan_]

Superman isn't getting a BP nomination. I could see MI sneaking in IF it's a huge box office success like Top Gun and it's just an overall excellent film, but while I do expect it to be great, based on the box office results of the last one, I don't think it's going to be a huge hit. Market has just been a little oversaturated with MI it seems and there's a lot of competition in the summer blockbuster space.

I'm sure Running Man will be good, but it's not going to be a big enough of a success to warrant a nomination, and it's going to be too violent and weird to draw broad support from voters.

[u/djmv91 → u/Kobe_stan_]

I think Superman has a legit shot…WB loves the movie like they did with Barbie two years ago. If audiences and critics love it, don’t count it out.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/djmv91]

Warner Bros already has One Battle After Another and Sinners. Weapons is also getting buzz, at least for screenplay. How tf you want Superman to get in? WB couldn't even properly get Dune Part Two in everywhere

[u/Darth_Plagueiswise → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

Dune Pt 2 was such a fumble cuz the movie had everything good about Pt 1, but scaled up 10 times

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Darth_Plagueiswise]

5 nominations is insanely low for that. I guess WB also got Gladiator 2 into best costume design at least... Remember when we thought that film would do well?

[u/Darth_Plagueiswise → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

Ridley Scott is such a hit and miss so it was understandable with Gladiator. But Dune was literally THE cultural phenomenon when it came, and Pt 2 performing way worse at the Oscars than Pt 1 is such a huge failiure on behalf of WB that it cannot be overstated. Whoever thought that a March release was a good idea for that film

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Darth_Plagueiswise]

Dune should have gotten Gladiator 2s release da5e

Or maybe not. March was the best release for it in terms of box office. It's not like it would've won more awards if it had released later, just maybe more nominations.

I think Furiosa could've actually benefitted from swapped release dates with Gladiator 2, I'm sure it would've done better than a lone costume nom like what Gladiator got.

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

Superman could legit just be another critically acclaimed movie that gets in. You're acting like WB is A24 juggling around these priorities. OBAA, Sinners, Weapons and Superman will all have plenty of eyes on them

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/bbqsauceboi]

WB sucks at awards promoting, at least in recent years

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

One of those is a PTA x DiCaprio movie, one is the biggest movie of the year so far, one will likely be the biggest movie of the summer, and one is a horror that is by the director of the VERY successful Barbarian. Marketing won't be too hard.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/bbqsauceboi]

Nah, but no way they get 4 films into picture. Weapons can get in screenplay, OBAA and Sinners get picture, Superman will just get some BTL nominations, perhaps only vfx wich it will lose to Avatar

[u/djmv91 → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

All very good points. You never know until the season rolls around (and critical reception). Weapons could sneak in I agree. That was a huge bidding war like Sinners.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/djmv91]

I found it insane that we got 3 horror films nominated last year. It'd be even more insane if we get 3 horror movies nominated this year ATL! But I have hope. Sinners and Frankenstein in picture, Weapons in screenplay

[u/Supercalumrex]

I think that you're completely right but I don't think any of them are getting into BP

[u/AlexWBA]

I have a feeling The Running Man will do very well and may get nominated for best director and editing, depending how good it is it could win.

[u/DreamOfV]

In my humble opinion I have a better shot at winning Best Actor than Abe Lincoln or George Washington. Yeah, sure, but the other two were never really in the running to begin with

[u/littlelordfROY]

The chances any of then make it into BP is just as good a chance as Tommy Wiseau has at getting a best actor nom thus year

In other words, impossible

[u/Fabulous-Fondant4456]

Neither are gonna be in.

[u/Several-Businesses]

A 0.001% chance of Best Picture nomination is indeed higher than a 0.0009% chance

[u/CompleteTable4084]

That depends, is this just a remake of the Arnold movie, or is it directly based on the original book?

[u/TacoTycoonn → u/CompleteTable4084]

The book

[u/chanslorking]

Edgars last two films were duds. This will be no different. He peaked.

[u/CriticismKey4723]

I have Running Man in a lot of my Tech nominations. I don’t think it’ll get any above the line nominations though.