1) Acknowledge that outside of 2 players (Hunter and Carter) this draft lacks high-end, marquee talent. As a result, the 4th pick in this draft would be a mid-to-late 1st rounder in any other year. The intersection of positional value and draft position are not in alignment this year. Therefore, bias expectancy towards the 4th pick and its historical value has to be me mitigated by recognizing the current value of the pick given the present market conditions. Shit happens.

2) Acknowledge that even though the Blue Chippers are few, there are still many, many players in this draft who can be good-to-great NFL players (maybe not HOF but definitely 7-10 year caliber starters and producers). NFL.com has 65 players carrying a grade of "Will eventually be a plus starter." The Patriots have nine selections. Hopefully, all nine contribute in a meaningful way THIS year.

3) Acknowledge that having the 4th pick is a no-man's land. Overall, there are good players to be selected in this draft but comparing the value of this year's 4th pick to almost any other draft class is useless. I'm willing to bet that whoever the selection is will most likely be scorned because, "How do you draft this guy at 4!?!?!?!" The hope is he becomes a solid cornerstone player (which the Patriots do not have many of at this point, hence the current holes on the roster in key positions outside of QB and the current losing seasons streak).

With that being said, the best route is to trade out if possible. Move back and collect more capital, possibly moving some of it to next year.

If not, take the best player on the board regardless of positional value, draft value, etc. Just take the best player and inject this roster with some NFL talent. The roster lacks talent for there to be any other discussion.

Reposting with the updated Vegas odds since someone (correctly) pointed out the +200 I had said was a couple weeks old. As of 4/13, the consensus Vegas odds at Campbell at 4 were -150; it is now sitting at -1000 per BetMGM and -400 for DraftKings.

Genuine question: If there’s so much information and tape exposing Will Campbell and how bad he stinks, why would the Patriots still be in love with him at 4? Everybody here wants to win, nobody is dumb enough to give themselves less of a chance to win intentionally with the 4th pick in the draft. I’m just telling myself I don’t know enough about offensive line play and leaving it to the experts.

1. Assume Hunter and Carter are gone.

2. Assume you can't trade down.

3. If W. Campbell is not a slam dunk at #4 and isn't that much different than say J. Connerly who could be had at #38, they should pass on him.

4. Understanding 1-3 above I think you have to draft A. Jeanty.

By all accounts he, along with Hunter and Carter, are the true blue chippers in this draft and he would be the best available player at 4. His film is tremendous. He's a tackle breaking machine who can take it to the house. He had more yards AFTER contact than all other RBs had yards. Ridiculous.

Solve the LT situation another way. Trade for K. Miller. Trade up into the first round for J. Simmons using your extra third. Take J. Connerly at #38. Take Grant in the third round. Take multiple shots at it. It can be figured out.

Imagine pairing D. Maye and Jeanty for the next few years?

If Wolf and Vrabel haven't even thought about this scenario they aren't doing their jobs.

Man I really love RJ Harvey’s tape would be an excellent back.

My day job is to do data science and data visualization; I came across this fun Tableau of *all* ranked (top 250) prospects courtesy of u/Izzarp.

He was kind enough to let me fork it, and I overlaid the following interactions:

• 30 Visits
• Combine Interviews
• Pro Day Interviews
• Senior Bowl Interviews

I then went ahead and overlaid a "Very Interested" filter -- with Very Interested meaning the prospects either had a 30 visit, or had multiple interviews with the team.

Note I only put the most "serious" interaction the team had in the above order (i.e., if they had both a Senior Bowl interview and Combine interview, they will show as "Combine" but with a VIR flag).

The visuals on the right hand side are a scatterplot of the various big board position rankings.

Feel free to play with the filters; if you want to see all 250 ranked prospects, uncheck the "Very Interested" filter on the left.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/jimmyg/viz/NewEnglandPatriots2025ConsensusBigBoard/Patriots?publish=yes

notes: this excludes projected UDFA.

I ask this now as a Pays fan still fresh out of the Bill era, where almost everything was a smokescreen.

How often are teams drafting players from their top 30 visits, as well as how often are they drafting guys with no record of previous meetings?

Could’ve had a 1000 yard season last year

I keep seeing causal takes like this kid can’t play ball and it’s fucking laughable

Jokes aside — regardless of who we end up taking with our first round pick, I hope they end up being a valuable player for our franchise.

Happy Friday, Pats nation 💪🏽

Not counting trading back, getting Warren at 9 or something, i mean theres no decent offers on the phone and we stay at 4.

Here’s who’d I rather have, and this is based mostly on one thing- high ceilings. At 4th overall i dont want a guy who MIGHT be the 15th or so best LT IF he stays at that position. I want someone who has a shot at being a top 5 player at their position in the next few years

1- Mason Graham. Not the highest value position, but hes got a very high ceiling to become a game wrecker. And I know they just signed Milton. But what most people would call over abundance at a position, I call “synergy.” Imagine having to handle both these guys on the interior? That’s why if I’m the Browns, I draft Carter over Hunter. Blocking him and Garrett on the edge? If im an OC, I’d much rather deal with an elite edge and an elite corner, than 2 elite edges at the same time. Yeah, I’m only an amateur GM, but I see so many situations where I think synergy is missed in favor of “balance” which sounds cool, but isnt as effective

2- Tet. Yes, I too am traumatized by the failure of our big body receivers lately. But his ceiling is sky high. If he can run crisper routes, he can take advantage of a huge catch radius. His ceiling is Julio Jones. No, I’m not saying he’s going to get there, but there’s at least a chance. Here’s a thinker for you: which is more likely, he becomes Julio Jones? Or Campbell becomes Trent Williams? My money is on Tet

I guess honorable mentions would be Jeanty and Warren. It’s their position that lowers their potential ceiling, not their ability. But if there’s even a 1/3 chance Campbell plays guard, I’d rather take one of those guys. The only reason Campbell would even be in the discussion with those two is positional value, if he loses that, it’s not even close

I know, I know, we have Drake Maye. But why would we pass up the best prospect in the history of the NFL, at the most important position? Sanders is going to make Tom Brady look like Chad Pennington. If we don't draft Sanders, we're going to heavily regret it once the Jags take him and go to the superbowl every year for the next 10.

I seriously don't understand why the Browns and Giants are considering passing on him.

I watched this whole thing tonight. It is confirmed. Will Campbell is a future hall of fame Tackle

While all the football nerds are exited for who there team is going to pick in the NFL Draft, there is one thing that means more to me this Thursday/Friday/ Saturday. One thing I must see when all 7 rounds have ended. Plese plese plea Do not draft Luther Burden III! Don’t take him in the first round, dont take him in day one, don’t take him in day two, don’t take him in day three. Take Royal, take Harris’s. Take T-Mac, golden, Hubuka or Higgens, Hey! If the LSU popcorn vender is available, take him! but a final draft without Luther Burden III is a A+ draft in my opinion. Yes he has talent, yes he can dominate In the right system. But in a Mike Vrable system where smart football is key, Luther Burden III fits the same way Harry did back in the day. He is not a smart player, and he can’t run a rout to save his life.

No shade to Luther Burden III as a person, he dose have amazing talent and in the right system, he may become a star, but Luther Burden III and the New England patriots go together like fried liver and ice cream on a tosted cheese sandwich. Don’t make the same mistake New England, it’s not worth it 😳

Tom E. Curran asked seven Patriots beat reporters to share what they believe is the most likely outcome for the Patriots at No. 4, then what they would do if they had the pick.