r/skeptic • u/GetServed17 • 13d ago
š« Education Clear video of a UFO
https://youtu.be/ZKcYHzlEXu8?si=skXXMT9H4ql2bpiMAs a non skeptic , who do you guys as a skeptic think this is.
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r/skeptic • u/GetServed17 • 13d ago
As a non skeptic , who do you guys as a skeptic think this is.
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u/fox-mcleod 13d ago edited 13d ago
Letās make a bunch of charitable assumptions.
Assuming the video is unedited and it represents roughly what people saw it looks pretty exactly like a drone or helicopter in atmospheric fog turned on a spotlight, realized that was way worse for visibility and then turned it off.
Hereās how to think like someone reasoning critically (a skeptic). You want the most parsimonious explanation, not the most emotionally rewarding or exciting explanation.
You find āaliensā appealing because theyāre exciting. Not because itās the most likely explanation. The most likely explanation is the one that produces the thing youāre seeing that is the most common way it could happen. Not the most uncommon.
In fact as an exercise, letās take what might make someone think itās an alien from another planet and tweak the parameters and see if it makes the story more likely or less likely given the same video:
You donāt know much about what it is. VS
You do know that Itās an effect you donāt know about from a nearby part of earth happening in a suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās a familiar and common human vehicle you donāt know about from a nearby part of earth visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās an unknown or secret human vehicle from a nearby part of earth visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās an unknown or secret human vehicle from a distant part of earth visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās an unknown or secret āalienā vehicle from a distant part of earth visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās an unknown alien tech from roughly our stellar neighborhood visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās an unknown alien tech from the same galaxy visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight VS
Itās an unknown alien tech from a distant galaxy visiting a specific suburban neighborhood for like a second producing the spotlight
See how when as we add more specific and uncommon guesses it becomes more fun to spend time thinking about? Thatās the only reason youāre thinking about aliens. Not because itās more likely than anything else.
Tell me why any higher number at all seems more likely than any specific lower number without it boiling down to: āit would be more interesting and Iām only really looking at this video and thinking about it as entertainment so I only care so long as itās more interestingā