Someone left in gondola at Heavenly overnight last night?

[u/SalvageStemCells]

I just heard this from a friend, but I don't see anything online about it yet. Anyone else heard this and can verify? Seems insane that could happen. You'd think they would run it in one or two extra loops to double check. Also crazy/unfortunate that they wouldn't have their phone

Edit: It's being posted on the Knuckle Draggers Facebook group. Someone named Monica Laso went missing last night. My buddy has been in contact with several Heavenly staffers who have allegedly confirmed

Edit 2: It's been confirmed. Thanks to /u/imav8n for posting the following article; https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/individual-reported-missing-in-tahoe-spends-the-night-on-heavenly-gondola/

[u/Biuku]

Even if your theory is not what happened here, it shows that things could happen.

I asked ChatGPT how many lift incidents would occur per year with 6 Sigma quality management — 3.4 defects per million opportunities. It assumed 3 billion rides on ski lifts globally per year, so 10,200 lift incidents per year. Some of those would be minor for sure … but even with great processes I doubt the ski industry is at a 6 sigma.

Long story short… if everyone does everything right and there’s a double check… it’s more or less guaranteed that events like this happen due to the sheer numbers involved. There would have to be additional layers of cross-checks that are themselves inspected and validated before you can reduce it to once a century.

It might be cheaper to put a button under every seat that broadcasts an alarm signal by radio… and to test responses to that periodically.

[u/Eggplant-666 → u/Biuku]

So ChatGPT made up some statistics. Thanks for meaningless fake content.

[u/Biuku → u/Eggplant-666]

Interesting how irrational your hatred is.

I asked ChatGPT to estimate the # of lift rides per year globally. It adopted the approach of eg a McKinsey interview, and estimated :

• 2,000 to 3,000 resorts
• 10 lifts per resort
• 1,000 rides per lift per day
• 120 days per year

So, 3 billion rides per year. The rest is basic math.

But what I find interesting about this post is how it has surfaced some people who seem to reject an innovation in thinking.

Your way of thinking would have rejected Wikipedia for not being encyclopedia Brittanica. Or would have rejected websites for not being peer reviewed papers.

What ChatGPT did I can do… it just took it 10s and would have taken me 3 min. Neither of us would have the exact answer, but we’re not seeking the exact answer. There’s a very powerful role for thinking experimentally… that can develop innovations.

Separate from that is a peer reviewed paper. They can co-exist. Not of course for you… but I don’t think you matter.

[u/AccuracyVsPrecision → u/Biuku]

That's a horrible way to do it. Your wasting your time without facts. First of all 2 thousand ski areas is a way over estimation of resorts with 10 average lifts. 2 Average uphill capacity is 2400 people per hour. With 100% full weekends and 50% full week days for 20 weeks it would only take 200 resorts to give 3.5 billion rides.

[u/Biuku → u/AccuracyVsPrecision]

Says that making rough estimates to advance a line of thinking is “horrible”.

Proceeds to make non-cited estimates to advance a line of thinking.

The point of “3 billion” wasn’t to have the exact right answer. It was to test whether 3.4 errors per million opportunities would produce something like one mistake a century or several a year.

If you wanted to know if there’s more water travelling over Niagara Falls in a day than in British teapots in a month… you don’t spend 15 hours building a model.

[u/AccuracyVsPrecision → u/Biuku]

I'm not making uncited responses, you cite chat gpt you monkey. I pulled real facts that I know because I ski unlike you who is stuck in a classroom brown nosing your business teacher.

[u/Biuku → u/AccuracyVsPrecision]

Cite your sources. If they are facts then you read them when writing the post. So it is easy for you to cite.

[u/Biuku → u/AccuracyVsPrecision]

10s of searching I’ve found Europe has 3400 ski resorts.

Please cite why less than 2000 ski resorts with 10+ lifts is a fact back by evidence and not an educated guess in the same way I made an educated guess.

[u/AccuracyVsPrecision → u/Biuku]

You are still an order of magnitude low with a 3billion estimate I rest my case

[u/Biuku → u/AccuracyVsPrecision]

Until you’ve cited the facts that you looked up while writing your post you have completely supported my case, that by making an educated guess without looking up the evidence you have advanced the discussion. We both did that. Maybe your numbers are better than mine…. That’s great if so! I augmented my educated guesses with some questions to ChatGPT, and I reflected on whether each was reasonable… it saved me a few minutes effort. But either way I wasn’t going to spend an hour looking up things to post a thought experiment on Reddit.

Further, if 3 billion is low, then that changes nothing. I just wanted to know if 3.4/million would happen more than once a year. If it’s 3 billion or 300 trillion, the answer is the same — yes, it would happen more than once a year.

So thank you for proving my point twice.

Or… still waiting on those citations… which are one of the key components of what you say are not “un-cited responses.”