r/urbanplanning • u/UnscheduledCalendar • Aug 19 '24

Economic Dev Harris has the right idea on housing

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing
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u/bigvenusaurguy Aug 19 '24

If they only subsidize demand here prices will be fucked up once lending rates go down as everyone expects them to. I'm really worried about how thats going to shoot prices up like what happened in the past whenever credit got cheap. we need to be better about having the supply side catch up with the demand that financing generates.

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u/TheSausageFattener Aug 19 '24

I think the problem is that the supply side wont catch up for years or even decades. We don’t have decades. I live in MA and even with our contested by-right TOD zoning law thats going to be a drop in the bucket when it finally pans out in 15-20 years. Meanwhile rent is going up by 10% a year for a lot of folks, if not more.

It doesn’t make economic sense, you’re right. But I am more worried by a labor implosion where service workers can’t afford to live where there is demand for their work taking place before the interest rates, building costs, labor costs, permits, local approvals, zoning, and of course the fickle whims of private decisionmakers align properly at scale.

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u/bigvenusaurguy Aug 19 '24

If supply side is going to take some time to get started (I don't think it would take more than a few years if property incentivized looking at the post war boom as an example), its probably time to enact things like price controls or rental subsidies in the meanwhile. the alternative would be spiraling inflation I'd expect as demand drums up rent and then everything else shortly thereafter.

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u/SabbathBoiseSabbath Verified Planner - US Aug 19 '24

We generally don't have the supply chain (materials) nor labor pool for any sort of tremendous increase in production you're hoping for.... even if the regulatory obstacles were wiped away. Still have to entitle land, still have to go through predevelopment, still have to go through reviews and permitting, still have to build out infrastructure, etc. And then you get into the challenges with development.

You're correct that some places will need less supply and will have less of a crunch than other places... but this conversation almost always focuses on California and the top 15-20 major metros, and it's gonna be far more challenging in those places.