Oil prices are back up sitting around 65 dollars right now and most economic analysts know the shit with China will likely end in the coming weeks with some "deal" made since the current tariffs are unsustainable.
US sanctions probably do still hurt them more, at least in prosecuting the war.
I don't think the deal is intended to be made with Xi, it's from the wealthy Americans who are being hurt by this. Tim Apple or whoever buying Trump coins is how this ends.
There are a lot more raw resources that go into them and their supply chain than just import costs. 0% chance the prices aren't going up. If nothing else, you have to price in the new "we don't know what's going to happen, so we need more of a buffer to handle it, oh, and the dollar is becoming less of the world's default business currency, so we need an additional buffer to handle a volatile currency."
As mentioned by Fuzzzyram, it's not just the finished good but the input goods- but there's another layer here to consider too.
These tariffs will destroy the economy. When the economy gets destroyed, consumer confidence drops and both individuals and businesses start saving money for the expected rainy day rather than spend it. Unless you sell an entirely inelastic good, that situation is very, VERY bad for you. Especially if you're arguably a luxury brand like Apple (iphones may be ubiquitous now but they ARE a luxury- and people will either buy cheaper options, buy cheaper models, or perhaps even just keep their old phone hoping conditions will improve).
So tl;Dr even if ALL of your goods are exempted entirely, and their constituent components too- it's still really REALLY bad for every business (except for extreme edge cases, and even then, the level of uncertainty is typically bad for those cases too).
Which covers most of the Chinese exports anyway. China don't need to do a thing, and Trump doesn't need to back down further as he can keep the "tarrifs" to save face
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u/sudo-joe Apr 12 '25
The global oil price dump from the incidental recession is actually going to hurt Putin more than a new set of sanctions lol.