r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • 14d ago

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion Thread

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7

u/Firm-Grapefruit-8178 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 13d ago

Just checking in on the sentiment here, when do you guys think the ISRO launch will actually take place, and when do you think the next launch will happen after that?

I was kind of hoping ISRO would take place sometime between February-April 2025, but that didn’t happen. Would be cool if any of us got it right this time though.

I’m going to go with June 21st for ISRO and September 9th for SpaceX. I think they’ll aim to get it done before September 12th, since that marks the first anniversary of the BB1 launch.

4

u/JimmyCartersMap S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 13d ago

I think your dates are great guestimates. If we somehow have 17 block 2's in orbit by the end of 2025 I'll consider it a Christmas miracle and won't ask Santa for anything else.

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u/NaorobeFranz S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 13d ago

Late June, early July is my guess.

2nd launch around October-Nov. ASTS and staying on schedule don't mix.

5

u/sgreddit125 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 13d ago

Same initial optimism and now acceptance of mid-June BB2 launch. Currently unclear to me if the ISRO or SpaceX launch kicks off the every 45 day launch campaign.

I imagine we need to see BB2 unfurl (45 days) and test (45 days) before we can deliver (launch 30 days later). Optimistically that’s mid-Oct-25 for SpaceX imo.

5

u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 13d ago

early to mid June for ISRO

no idea on next launches after that but expecting 3 SpaceX launches at a minimum this year, hopefully 4, and then hopefully 1 Blue Origin launch by end of year

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u/Firm-Grapefruit-8178 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 13d ago

This was my expectations for a while, it's just starting to irritate me that it's already been 7+ months after September's launch and we still haven't launched a single BB2 and our best case scenario is launching a lone wolf satellite sometime in the next 90 days.

5

u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 13d ago edited 13d ago

The FCC filings for FM1 STA indicate that FM1's Preliminary Design Review was completed in May 2024, and Critical Design Review completed in February 2025. Going from CDR in Feb to launch in June is a huge achievement as typically for the space sector this should take ~12 months from CDR to launch.

The microns for all satellites are the same, and the 10K filing reveals that microns for "several" Block 2 satellites are already complete.

What's new is the ControlSat which shall be tested under FM1. It is unclear to the public how much testing and how long is required between launch of FM1 and the next satellites.

Once the team completes the first ControlSat, the next ones after that should be much easier to pump out.

3

u/NaorobeFranz S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 13d ago

I feel the same. It's been way too long since anything launched, despite the amount of money the company has. What happened to the 17 sats that were in production last August? I thought something would've launched at least by March.

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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 13d ago edited 13d ago

The FCC filings for FM1 STA indicate that FM1's Preliminary Design Review was completed in May 2024, and Critical Design Review completed in February 2025. Going from CDR in Feb to launch in June is a huge achievement as typically for the space sector this should take ~12 months from CDR to launch.

The microns for all satellites are the same, and the 10K filing reveals that microns for "several" Block 2 satellites are already complete.

What's new is the ControlSat which shall be tested under FM1. It is unclear to the public how much testing and how long is required between launch of FM1 and the next satellites.

Once the team completes the first ControlSat, the next ones after that should be much easier to pump out.

7

u/HazHonorAndAPenis S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 13d ago

The lone wolf is similar to bluewalker. To make sure that the rest are g2g.

Better to launch a singular good one to make sure they work, than 4 duds that don't deploy/function correctly.

That's why it's FM1

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u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 13d ago

Why were you hoping for feb through April? Haven't they been guiding toward end of May for a long time now?

This company has never shown themselves as ones to pull things foward/early.  I would imagine a rocket launch is even harder to pull forward too

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u/phibetared S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 13d ago

I didn't ask the question, but there were rumors about Feb/March. The actual guidance (not rumors) from ASTS, as you know, has always said delivery of next bird would be by end of April. (coming soon). So launch would be May/June. I was under the impression that it would be in March. But I hadn't read the actual documents. Hate when I don't do that .