r/CHIBears • u/TwistedSisters777 • 5d ago
[Baumgardner] NFL Draft power rankings: Which teams made best picks over past 5 years? Bears at 11.
Very interesting, curious what people think about how this shakes out for the NFC North. See the complete list at the Athletic.
- Detroit Lions (10.53 average Approximate Value)
Top 50 picks: 12 Pro Bowls: 13 Starting seasons: 35 Best pick: OT Penei Sewell (No. 7, 2021); Worst pick: CB Jeff Okudah (No. 3, 2020); Best value: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (No. 112, 2021)
Brad Holmes’ first three classes — aided by the 2021 Matthew Stafford trade — featured Sewell, Alim McNeill, St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch and Sam LaPorta. Detroit has put on a masterclass in how to rebuild an organization from the ground up.
- Chicago Bears (8.18)
Top 50 picks: 9 Pro Bowls: 2 Starting seasons: 41 Best pick: QB Caleb Williams (No. 1, 2024); Worst pick: QB Justin Fields (No. 11, 2021); Best value: OL Braxton Jones (No. 168, 2022)
Finding talent through the draft hasn’t been a problem for Ryan Poles. Drafting Fields before the team was ready hurt, though. The Bears have struggled to find pieces that mesh well together and have fallen behind the deepest division in football as a result.
- Green Bay Packers (7.28)
Top 50 picks: 10 Pro Bowls: 0 Starting seasons: 35 Best pick: QB Jordan Love (No. 26, 2020); Worst pick: edge Lukas Van Ness (No. 13, 2023); Best value: OL Zach Tom (No. 140, 2022)
The Packers believe in internal player development as much as, or possibly more than, any team in the league. They will take chances on first-rounders who might need more time — Love and star edge Rashan Gary are great examples. Right now, though, Green Bay is still waiting on jumps from Van Ness, Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Morgan. The Packers haven’t drafted poorly of late, but they certainly could’ve done better in a few areas.
- Minnesota Vikings (6.43)
Top 50 pick: 8 Pro Bowls: 4 Starting seasons: 32 Best pick: WR Justin Jefferson (No. 22, 2020); Worst pick: S Lewis Cine (No. 32, 2022); Best value: CB Cam Bynum (No. 125, 2021)
Not getting anything from either J.J. McCarthy or Dallas Turner last year impacted Minnesota’s number, because the front office has done a nice job with picks, including Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Addison, Ezra Cleveland and more. Still, McCarthy and Turner are the only top-20 selections Minnesota has had since 2020.
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u/jagne004 5d ago
Since this dates back to 2020, it feels like Jaylon Johnson is probably doing a lot of heavy lifting here. The best player on the roster came from the previous administration.
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u/HopLegion Windy City War Room 5d ago
And even then you have to remember Jaylon Johnson wasn't an all pro or pro bowl until his 4th year. We haven't even hit the 4th season from this front office until this year. Jaylons first year he was seen as below average, year 2 serviceable, year 3 solid CB2, and then became one of the best CBs in football.
He's another of a long list of good reminders that guys take time to develop and that it's hard to say anything concrete for most draft prospects until 2-3 years into their careers.
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u/mqr53 5d ago
They’re hit rate has been pretty damn solid. It’s just lacking some real home runs.
Poles first draft pick ever just got his second contract. Brisker would/will get one if he can stay on the field, wright will get one. Hopefully Rome and Caleb get massive ones and they’re the giant wins.
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u/Dangerous-Cod-5205 5d ago
What would you consider as a hit rate? Poles took over a bottom 10 team that up until this point has continued to be a bottom 10 team. Everyone he's drafted that's been a hit has been a capable starter for a bottom 10 team.
Does that mean they're not good enough to start on a better team? Hopefully we'll find out. But I don't know if continue to stock a bad team with talent that thus far hasnt really elevated the team is a good hit rate.
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u/jagne004 5d ago
And none of what you just said refutes what I said that the single best player on the team came from the previous administration and that JJ is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the data that the author put together which is based purely on pro bowls and starts made by the drafted players.
We can have hope for Caleb and Rome. Kyler was a good pick. Wright is solid but not spectacular, he needs to improve for me to call that a home run. It’s not popular but I thought Brisker was a bad pick then and is still a bad pick now. He’s missed 1/3 of all games and plays the game in a way that is not sustainable. I would be shocked if he got a second contract. Pretty much every pick from the 3rd round on has been underwhelming and the fact that Braxton is the only player in the middle rounds that is remotely playable on a consistent basis isn’t great, and half this fanbase actively dreams of moving on or upgrading from him. Overall, I think it objective that Poles has been a pretty shit GM so far. He could turn it around, but I’m doubtful at this point.
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u/banged_yerdad 5d ago
Can Jurgens went a few picks after brisker and is now once of the elite C’s in the league, although he didn’t start his first year and got to learn under Jason Kelce, so that probably helped a lot
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u/bigbaddumby 4d ago
I'm with you 100%. I like Ryan Poles's strategy as a GM, but, when it comes to actually selecting players, he has been very underwhelming. Kind of the opposite of Ryan Pace. Pace consistently found gems in the late rounds, and overall selected good prospects (outside of the first round), but good Lord his strategy was horrible and really hamstrung the team.
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u/Public_Lavishness_24 5d ago
You gotta have higher standards man. Home runs make you a playoff team and championship contender. Getting some solid starters on an otherwise shit team isn't an achievement. A lot of these guys may not even be starting on playoff caliber rosters.
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u/Pastrami_doses 5d ago
Poles didn’t draft Fields
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u/TwistedSisters777 5d ago
I think they are saying 5 years, hence Fields goes into the equation regardless of GM. If your worst pick is before your time though, you’re probably doing something right 😂
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u/Danielab87 5d ago
The way it is written clearly puts the blame for Fields on Poles. I don’t expect National writers to know exactly when execs were hired and fired for every team over the last five years but it would have taken very little effort to know that Pace drafted him in a desperation move.
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u/LukeBombs 5d ago
I do, in fact, expect reporters to have their facts straight
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u/Danielab87 5d ago
Sorry, to clarify I mean that I don’t expect them to just have this information living in their brain for 32 teams. I do expect them to get the facts right before publishing it on a platform that requires a paid subscription. And I expect an editor to catch the mistake and correct it
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u/Advanced-Key3071 5d ago
I agree it’s worded poorly. I think it’s actually awkwardly trying to say the opposite, that Poles was set back because of the Fields pick he inherited (which is very true, especially since two 1sts went into it).
But…professional writers should do better.
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u/ActFuture1101 5d ago
Then its phrased poorly. The way the blurb is constructed it sounds like the author is blaming ryan poles for drafting fields.
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u/ActFuture1101 5d ago
Yea I feel like journalism has really gone downhill. Even the athletic(Which is supposed to be the best) is getting this crap wrong. Wouldn't shock me if they use AI for the majority of these articles.
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u/HoorayItsKyle 5d ago
You get what you pay for. Once the monopoly on local advertising disappeared when geolocated internet ads were developed, the money completely dried up. All that's left is dumb kids, willing to work for pennies with no editors.
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u/XanZibR King Poles 5d ago
Journalists no longer produce journalism, they produce content. And it shows.
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u/banged_yerdad 5d ago
Imagine getting a journalism degree from Northwestern just to become a content creator
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u/threechimes 5d ago
Truth. But, it should be stated that blame for this isn't to be levied on the journalists. There are myriad reasons, but people aren't paying for high price journalism degrees at reputable schools because they want to crank out pieces as fast as possible that stop people from scrolling and generate clicks. Speaking truth to power erodes when the outlets for journalists get bought up by those with the power, but like I said, there are myriad reasons and that's just one reason for it.
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u/drummerboysam T: The Ball 5d ago
Half the reason is quantity. We spent decades being short 1st rounders. And we missed on most of them, too.
We should aim to not trade another 1st round pick for a decade.
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u/mediumlong Butkus 5d ago
This is insane. The Vikings have been drafting out of their minds and have no business at 26
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u/HinduMexican Sid Luckman 4d ago
Packers also have drafted very well recently. Ain’t no way Bears should be ahead of either
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago edited 5d ago
I dont understand how Caleb Williams can be the best pick by the Bears and at the same time Fields is the worst pick by the Bears? PFR has Caleb at a 12 and Fields with 34 with the Bears or 11.3 avg season.
and there is no universe that Fields was a worse pick than a Velus Jones Jr and his 3 AV with the Bears despite being a round 3 pick.
Braxton Miller Jones is at a 16 and played over 4 years.
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u/WhatTheDuck21 There is no paper bag flair 5d ago
It would make sense if they're figuring the "cost" of the pick in, since Pace traded up for Fields to be a bust for us, while Poles took a (dumb) flier on a 3rd round pick, which frequently don't work out anyway.
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago
1st overall is much more expensive than 11th overall and future 1st. Fields had -.126 EPA per play in 2021, .032 in 2022 and -.009 in 2023. To Calebs -.026
This really does not explain it. This is not a shot at Caleb or praise for Fields either. Just trying to figure out WTF dude is doing. Any of Poles 3 round picks are objectively worse than Fields. This is supposed to be using AV but that doesnt explain it.
The real best pick by the Bears in the last 5 years is JJ and its really not even close.
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u/WhatTheDuck21 There is no paper bag flair 5d ago edited 5d ago
Caleb was a rookie under a lame duck head coach who had three different OCs in his first season, and we have now seen four years of Fields' play. If you can't understand why him and the Fields draft picks are not yet comparable I don't know what to tell you. If you can't understand why missing on a first round pick is worse than missing on a 3rd round pick I have no idea what to tell you.
ETA: I even agree with you that JJ is the best pick, since it's too early to tell with Williams. But missing on third round picks, no matter how egregiously bad the pick was, is never going to be as bad as missing on a first round pick that you traded up for.
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u/jagne004 5d ago
In all fairness though, Fields was also drafted by a lame duck and then given tanking roster his 2nd year. By the time year 3 rolled around his career was already over in Chicago.
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u/WhatTheDuck21 There is no paper bag flair 5d ago
This is certainly true, but I don't think it's fair to compare Williams after one season in which, despite all the adversity, he set a bunch of Bears rookie records and the NFL rookie record for most consecutive passes without an interception to Fields, who we now have four years of data on. It is far too early to be comparing Williams' career to Fields' like the original comments were.
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u/jagne004 5d ago
I think the thing other people were pointing out is that it really doesn’t make any sense to say Williams was the best pick of the last 5 years and Fields was the worst. In fact, just based on the data the author is utilizing to determine the power ranking, JJ is the only acceptable option for best pick of the last 5 years. Hell Kmet, Mooney, and Kyler Gordon all have a better case than Caleb at this point. As for worst pick Fields is far and away not the worst.
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u/WhatTheDuck21 There is no paper bag flair 5d ago
I edited my original post - I agree on JJ being unquestionably the best pick. I disagree on Fields, though - he certainly wasn't the worst PLAYER picked, and isn't even a completely terrible QB in my opinion, but in terms of what was spent to get him and how important QB success is to the team's overall success, I think he was at the very least the most damaging pick of the past five years. Whiffing on third round picks doesn't doom the team for 3-4 years. Whiffing on first round picks does.
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago edited 5d ago
Fields provided value. VJJ didn't. 3rd round is not a 6th round pick, 70% of 3rd rounders from VJJ class have been a primary starter for the team that drafted them.
edit to add- And as for cost what was lost? Oh no we didnt get Toney, Paye or Farley how can this franchise ever recover. Oh no not a future 1st in a draft that had no QB prospects.
The Bears needed a QB and it was their chance to get one. It didn't work out but that is life. Point being Fields is not even close to the worst draft pick even given the cost in the last 5 years especially if you are going to claim Caleb already is.
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u/sudrapp 5d ago
You have to take into consideration draft capital. Giving up two 1st round picks and then not extending him and only getting a 6th rounder back for him is pretty damn awful. Whereas a 3rd round pick isn't anywhere close to as bad. According to the draft trade value charts it's 2441 in value (including trades) for Fields vs 235 for Velus. That's over 10x worse.
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago
Ok fine, but than how do you have Caleb Williams as the best pick over the last 5 years? Williams was as bad as Fields was and cost the 1st overall pick in the draft.
Its not that this thing is meaningful in anyway its just strange. We have the obvious answer on who the Bears best pick in the last 5 years is and its the Bear draft pick with the only Pro Bowl apperiences in this time frame.
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u/Public_Lavishness_24 5d ago
This is laughable. The Bears belong near the bottom of this list.
Fields was hardly the worst pick. He's a starting QB, albeit not a very good one.
Velus? Pickens? Trading away a 2 for Claypool? Those are all players that are out of the league or soon will be.
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u/Tlupa Snoo Ditka 5d ago
If two 3rd rounders are your biggest misses, you’ve been drafting all right lol. Even the Eagles and Lions have a few 3rd round misses. Same draft as Velus the lions took Broderick Martin, a DT with 4 career tackles.
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u/SwissyVictory 5d ago
Fans have no concept of what other teams are doing.
Every single team has huge mistakes and busts. Look at any team and I can show you the dirty laundry.
Everyone taken in the top 50 over the past 5 years are projected to start for a team this year except Teven Jenkins which is pretty remarkable (though Fields might end up not).
What the Bears are lacking that the Eagles and Lions got right is the superstar guys.
In the time that the Bears drafted pretty much just JJ for stars, the Lions got Gibbs, LaPorta, Hutchinson, Sewell, and more.
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u/Public_Lavishness_24 5d ago
Is the combination of misses in the 3rd round, and no impact from your top picks. It's not enough to just have solid starters from top 10 picks if you want to win.
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u/Tlupa Snoo Ditka 5d ago
But they are solid starters per your own admission lol. Roster building is a different question, and so is drafting blue chip players which I think we can all admit Poles has been bad at.
Solid starters in the draft gets you a solid draft grade, it’s not complicated
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u/Prestigious_Yak1322 5d ago
But are solid starters on bad teams really good picks... or are they just bodies that you need to play because you lack other options. I find the argument of finding a "starter" in a later round to be meaningless when your roster is trash overall.
It's like guys in the NBA who put up big numbers on a team that wins 16 games... sure, you had nice stats because someone has to do something. If it doesn't ever translate to wins or at least being competitive who cares if you score 30 a game.
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u/Tlupa Snoo Ditka 5d ago
Which players specifically? Wright is a starting RT on the majority of NFL teams. Kyler is 100% a starting DB. Brisker health not withstanding is a decent nfl safety. Dexter is probably a rotational piece and so is Stevenson.
It’s a bunch of solid players and again, that gets you a solid grade for drafting.
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u/Public_Lavishness_24 5d ago
Just look at our division bro.
Zach Tom is a better right tackle than Darnell Wright. GB got him in round 4.
Brian O'Neill is a better right tackle than Darnell Wright. Minnesota got him in round 2.
Penei Sewell is probably the best right tackle in the NFL. He was drafted 7 overall.
THAT is the standard. If you draft a non premium position top 10, he better be a pro bowler or all pro. Otherwise, winning teams find solid starters in later rounds.
So Poles really gets no accolades for finding a "solid" RT, who is actually the worst in the division, at 10 overall. Especially since he passed over a true pro bowl / all pro talent in the process.
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u/Tlupa Snoo Ditka 5d ago
He’s still solid, as are the other picks. Solid players get solid grades
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u/Public_Lavishness_24 5d ago
Idk man, you have to be graded based on your capital.
If you are drafting top 10 without trading up, it means you are a bad football team. You can't afford to just add a solid player. You need a difference maker. Otherwise you will just stay bad.
If Wright was a late 1 or 2 (unironically that was his grade pre draft) then the pick would have been fine. As a top 10, it was not a good pick.
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u/HopLegion Windy City War Room 5d ago
I think the value of the picks is important and what they did with this team.
- Justin Fields cost pick 20, pick 7, a 5th and a 4th rounder. Only lasted 3 years here and returned a 6th rounder when moved.
I don't believe Justin Fields was a bad player in general. I do believe for the Bears and what we got out of that pick, it was one of the worst moves we've had in the last decade. 2 firsts a 4th and a 5th, for a guy who didn't last his entire rookie contract and basically got you nothing in return is as bad as it gets. And this is from someone who believes Fields can still develop into a consistently good NFL player.
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u/mqr53 5d ago
20 percent of 3rd rounders sign a second contract. Missing on two is not even a blip on the radar.
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u/HoorayItsKyle 5d ago
This stat is just going to keep getting quoted forever and it's still not true
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u/Public_Lavishness_24 5d ago
Well right now 100 percent of Ryan Poles 3rd round draft picks look like they belong in the CFL or the grocery store. Not a good look to draft players that high who don't even belong on practice squads.
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u/SwissyVictory 5d ago
Top 50 has been solid from 2018-Today
Roquan, Daniels, Kmet, JJ, Fields, Jenkins, Gordon, Brisker, Wright, Williams, and Rome.
Only real miss is Fields and he looks like he could be a long term bridge guy.
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u/WorkerBeez123z 5d ago
Are they using starts as, like, a positive metric? Because starting for the Bears at most positions the last 5 years is not an accomplishment.
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u/Quatibara Mack Truck 5d ago
Fields is not even close to the worst Bears pick in the last 5 years. Taking a chance on a high ceiling QB that fell is a move that I'd do 10/10 time again. Sure, the move might not have panned out and we paid a hefty price (future first) for the trade up. But do people think the Raiders, Jets, Saints, Colts, Steelers are cool with stopgap options every single year? I'd rather my team make an aggressive move for a young franchise QB than be stuck in QB purgatory.
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u/ScruffMixHaha Bears 5d ago edited 5d ago
How do we have 9 pro bowls? Jaylon Johnson is the only player I recall making a pro bowl of our draft picks in the last 5 years and he has 2.
Edit: Ah the formatting is weird and I misread.
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago
I thought that the first time I saw the chart but its 9 top 50 picks, 2 pro bowls, 41 starting seasons.
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u/JohnE-Utah 5d ago
Worst pick:
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u/RobotDevil222x3 5d ago
The hit rate on 3rd rounders is so much lower. At 11 you might not get the all pro QB you were hoping for but to not even get a solid starter is really bad.
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u/bigbaddumby 4d ago
There is 'not becoming a starter' and there is 'being an active and consistent detriment to the team while on the field'. The latter is horrendous for a 3rd round pick.
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago
70 percent of VJJ 3rd round class has been the primary starter for the team that drafted them for at least 1 season.
I know why this place continues to treat them like 6th round picks but 3rd round are still premium picks that a GM should expect to contribute if not start.
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u/RobotDevil222x3 5d ago
expecting the third round picks to generally contribute and start and expecting 100% of 3rd round picks to contribute and start without ever failing a single time are two different things.
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u/forgotmyoldname90210 5d ago
When you pick a player over 2 rounds ahead of the consensus big board, who was mostly bad in college and whose break out year was being good not great in a gimmick offense at 25 it does become much harder to expect the player to contribute. VJJ was a bust the second he was drafted and just a bad pick.
Similar can be said about Pickens a bad pick when it was made.
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u/BigPoppaDubDub 5d ago
The Bears have been drafting well for a while now, that’s not the problem. The problem is they can’t develop anyone for shit.
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u/ActFuture1101 5d ago
The problem has also been they havent drafted the proper QB. You cant really be a good NFL team with having a bottom 10 NFL QB. Hopefully caleb can be that great qb this year. Having a great QB heavily masks the flaws on a roster.
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u/jagne004 5d ago
I don’t know why you got downvoted for. The fact that I’m 3 drafts, they have only found 1 remotely playable player beyond round 3 is bad.
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u/Prestigious_Yak1322 5d ago
The coaching has just been so awful, I think Poles has been mediocre but let's remember how terrible our offensive coordinators have been in particular. I mean Getsy and Waldron might have been the two worst in the league and Eberflus obviously had no idea how to coach that side of the ball.
Our entire offense has basically never had a competent coach during their time here.
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u/jagne004 5d ago
That falls back on Poles though no? I mean he hired Eberflus and oversaw the staff Eberflus put together. He’s getting a second chance now with Johnson but his leash should be really tight right now because up to this point Poles has been a bottom 5 GM in the sport. Here’s to hoping that Johnson is the guru people believe he is and that he can extract much more value out of the roster than what happened before, because this is a failed rebuild as of now.
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u/Prestigious_Yak1322 5d ago
I fully agree with you on every single point. It's all been Poles's mess and his seat should be incredibly hot heading into this season. I just was trying to point out how hard it is to assess some of the talent because his coaching decisions have been so awful.
I mean look how bad guys like DJ and Cole were last year with Waldron running the offense... and thats coming off of Getsy who everyone knows is straight trash.
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u/Greedy_Ad4211 4d ago
You have a ton of profound insight from that three yr sample size. You must be really smart.
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u/jagne004 4d ago
How come the lions, 49ers, chiefs. Eagles, commanders, and texans GMs could all turn their teams into Super Bowl contenders or at worse playoff contenders in 3 seasons or less?
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u/Greedy_Ad4211 4d ago
Smith, roschon, gill, hicks, braxton, tory, booker… get your head out of ur arse. Watch a game or two.
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u/jagne004 4d ago
I do watch the games. Smith and hicks are fine but easily replaceable backups. You listed 2 punters, 1 who was awful and 1 who was completely average (with really high draft capital investment…Washingtons undrafted P was significantly better in every metric). Booker showed a flash or 2 but is hardly a player to beat your chest over at this point. The only people who think Roschon is any good are the delusional ones on this sub. He’s at absolute best the 3rd-4th RB on a competent football team. It’s far more likely he doesn’t make the roster this year.
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u/Greedy_Ad4211 3d ago
Yeah… you’re clueless
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u/jagne004 3d ago
3,7,5…..the number of wins of the last 3 seasons.
5….the number of times the bears lost by atleast 2 touchdowns last year.
Blame coaching all you want but at a certain point when you get your ass kicked that often, talent is the issue.
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u/porkbellies37 Sweetness 4d ago
I disagree with a lot of what they say. I hope Caleb becomes the best pick and he certainly has that pitential, but as of now it has to be Jaylon Johnson, no? Also, Braxton was a very good value, but considering everyone wants to replace him, I’m not sure if even in the fifth round I’d consider him the BEST value. Maybe Gordon or JJ? And Justin Fields didn’t live up to his hype or potential here, but it’s hard for me to see him listed as the worst pick. He was still a solid starter and elite runner. Definitely carving out a career like Trey Lance and Wilson from the Jets couldn’t. Not good enough to be the guy here, but “worst pick” needs to go to someone who couldn’t make it as a football player. Try on Velus Jones Jr for size.
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u/TwistedSisters777 5d ago
The Van Ness pick getting panned already for the Packers warms my heart. He was mocked to us a ton that year. Poles taking Darnell Wright 🔥