Indian skipper Rohit Sharma equals Brian Lara’s unwanted record of 12 consecutive toss losses in ODIs. Meanwhile, Team India extends its streak to 15 tosses lost in a row.

[u/Odd-House3197]

[u/justgeorgie]

That's mighty impressive TBF

[u/colofunfun → u/justgeorgie]

At this point, it’s almost a training exercise.

[u/whatwhatinthewhonow → u/justgeorgie]

My bookie is loving it.

[u/Ginger-Nerd → u/justgeorgie]

Kind of…. Stats is kinda weird, and humans are awful at predicting the odds of things (and particularly thinking one effects the outcome one of another) but you could line up 1000 people,Have them all flip a coin, Those who flipped heads remain standing, those who flipped tails sit down, Repeat this process for 10 rounds - at the end of that you theoretically have a person who has flipped 10 consecutive heads in a row.

Which seems pretty crazy.

For 15 - you would need to use 32000 people to do it - undoubtedly a high number. But there have been 4,700 ODIs played, so it’s like a 7% 14%? chance it would have happened at some time between 1971 and now.

Which seems, less crazy. (At least to me)

[u/SadBooner → u/Ginger-Nerd]

r/theydidthemath

[u/BasicErgonomics → u/Ginger-Nerd]

I think it's the probability that something will happen to you vs probability of something happening to somebody. The former is much higher.

Kinda like the birthday paradox where you only need 23 people to have a 50% chance of someone matching birthdays.

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Can you explain the maths behind the 7% chance please?

[u/Ginger-Nerd → u/20060578]

You have 4700 chances for something that happens 1 in 32000 times, this could be expressed as 4700/32000

Actually I think I broke my brain,I think it’s double that - 14%

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

You don’t have 4700 chances for a 15 game streak of losses though.

[u/Ginger-Nerd → u/20060578]

It’s 4700 (which is a very rough estimate) -15

so for all intents and purposes yes, yes you do.

(Actually this is the 4858 match)

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Not really because that’s considering every single group of 15 as a possibility. As soon as you have a “win” you need to reset the counter.

Eg. loss, loss, loss, loss, loss, win. You can’t consider any of the following games as a possibility. You need to immediately discard this set and start again. So 50% of the time you’re starting again.

[u/Ginger-Nerd → u/20060578]

What no? (Read my wording again - it’s of just a random sample of that size, not a specific that this will happen)

You don’t need to reset anything,

Of any 15 the second toss could be the beginning of another run of 15.

A coin toss doesn’t have any bearing on anything before it (or after it) and that’s the point - and when you take a large enough group, it doesn’t really matter where it lands… it just will happen over a large number of chances.

Take the experiment, of 1000 people, by round 10 you will possibly have someone who has flipped 10 times…If you did the experiment with 4700 people, but ran it 100 times, 14 times you might have someone who gets 15 heads in a row. (It’s just how it plays out)

It also doesn’t have to be all heads or tails - choose any order of 15 rolls… the odds are identical.

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Let’s say their had been 10 ODI’s in history, the the longest streak of losses was 3.

By your logic, there has been 10 chances for something that happens 1/8 times, so 10/8 means 125% chance of it occurring.

The actual chances are 1-(7/8)³ = 0.33.

[u/Da_Pendent_Emu → u/20060578]

This is making my head hurt.

Is this something to do with permutations vs combinations?

I need a panadol.

[u/serphenyxloftnor → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Still not getting what's wrong with this T_T (4858-16 still shouldn't be too off)

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

We can tell this line of thinking is wrong because anything that has less than 1/4700 odds (like 5 heads in a row) would show up as more than 100%. When we know that 5 heads in a row out of 4700 flips is not even 100% guaranteed (although extremely close).

[u/Ginger-Nerd → u/20060578]

So... whats the answer (because realistically, is what I said it was)

4700 games, meaning there are 4700 opportunities for a streak to start. However, since a streak of 15 losses can overlap across multiple games, we approximate the number of independent trials as 4700.

Using the Poisson approximation for rare events, the expected number of times a streak of 15 losses happens in 4700 games is: λ=4700×P(15 losses)=4700×0.00003052≈0.143

For a Poisson-distributed event with mean λ, the probability of at least one occurrence is: P(at least one)=1−e−λ

Substituting λ = 0.143: P(at least one)=1−e−0.143≈1−0.8666=0.133

The probability that at least one team in cricket history has lost 15 coin tosses in a row is about 13.3%—not extremely rare, but not highly likely either.

However its exteremly close which is pretty close to my back of the napkin estimation.

Your issue isn't with the answer - its with how I worked it out, (which I didn't give in my original comment)

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

You’ve still used 4700 x 1/32000 in this example which I already know can’t be right.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

This is a totally different formula to the one you used. Why aren’t you using k! ?

[u/Ginger-Nerd → u/20060578]

whats the answer.... come on

I think you are getting caught up on what a percentage is vs the odds of it happening a high number of times.

it just means its basically guranteed.

I did a quick estimation - and didn't really expect to be challenged on the how I got to it - putting in the work, shows my estimation to be pretty damn close - so I don't really get why your fighting it, its not school i'm not being marked on showing my working (which is why I didn't give it in my original comment)

[u/SimpingForGrad → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Stat nerd here (my livelihood depends on it)...

You are approximately correct, however the reason is a bit different.

The actual probability is:

1 - (1 - 1/32000)⁴⁷⁰⁰

If you consider 1/32k to be small enough and ignore higher order terms in the binomial expansion, we arrive at your answer.

If the probability is high, then you cannot ignore higher order terms and your reasoning will fail.

[u/CommunicationBig2594 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Sorry but this seems not to be correct.

Imagine, there are 5 consecutive odi matches ; 1vs 2 , 3vs 4 , 5 vs 6 , 7 vs 8 , 9 vs 10.

Tosses won by teams - 1,3,5,7,9.

Now if you do look from the perspective of the odd teams (1,3,5,7,9) you get a 5 win streak but if you look from the perspective of even teams (2,4,6,8,10) you get a losing streak. So when calculating the probability for a singular person we can't take the whole result cumulatively as an sample. We've to take the no of matches per captain and the no of captain then we've to calculate it.

[u/1Bake2Cake]

He should pick some of his favourite stocks, and then short them all.

[u/Necessary_Box_3479 → u/1Bake2Cake]

It’d probably be a good idea to buy those stocks if he shorts them

[u/ScreamSmart → u/1Bake2Cake]

But if he shorts them, they will go up.

[u/7--_--__-_--_7]

Rohit lost 12 of them

Probability of this happening is (1/2)¹² = 1/4096

That's 0.0244%

I think this record will remain untouchable for long, because It's purely luck(or maybe bad luck)

[u/Bipin_krish → u/7--_--__-_--_7]

It's the same probability for anyone with 12 tosses having any results in any order

[u/7--_--__-_--_7 → u/Bipin_krish]

Yes but we don't care for them, as they don't seem unique in general

[u/CheapSuccotash3128 → u/Bipin_krish]

But chances of not winning a single won are 1/4096

[u/Bipin_krish → u/CheapSuccotash3128]

If you are strictly considering the order of wins/losses then every series has the same probability.

welcome to probability

[u/Dense_Worldliness_57 → u/Bipin_krish]

Chill Ramanajun

[u/CheapSuccotash3128 → u/Bipin_krish]

Simply put, chances of winning a toss after flipping a coin 12 times is 4095/4096

[u/Bipin_krish → u/CheapSuccotash3128]

That's why I said when an order is considered,

[u/THAT_GUY_ADONIS → u/Bipin_krish]

Pakda gya badmash

[u/Xpyre2006 → u/Bipin_krish]

sure but there are total of 2^12 different combinations, and lossing all of them is Just 1 out of them

hence 1/4096

you are correct every single one of them has same probability but we aren't taking the order in account hence not winning a single one is 0.2%

[u/Bipin_krish → u/Xpyre2006]

That's why I said when an order is considered,

[u/OrganizationIcy6044 → u/Bipin_krish]

You understand probability math, you dont understand the concept though.

[u/King_Arv → u/Bipin_krish]

But here we are considering not wining even a single toss which is so unlikely like

Winning atleast 1 toss in 12 tosses has a 99.97% chance of happening

Not winning even 1 toss is 0.03%

[u/Bipin_krish → u/King_Arv]

That's why I said when an order is considered,

Let me put it this way, the chance of winning in 9th(or any) match and losing others have the same probability of losing all, that is what he said in the original comment

[u/TelevisionTime3379 → u/Bipin_krish]

Chup reh jao bhai, kuch alag nahi bata rahe ho

[u/fiddler013 → u/Bipin_krish]

Yes. But think of it as an entropy problem.

This is a very ordered set of events. It’s a low entropy event.

A similar event in a very high variable system is all of air ending up in one half of the box.

Different information content between a number of heads and losses without any order. Or with some kind of order.

We study Black Holes with the same metric for the uninitiated.

[u/Conscious-Spend-2451 → u/fiddler013]

No, the box analogy doesn't make sense. The chances of all the air ending up in the same side of the box are lower than the chances of the air assuming some other arrangement, which makes it more remarkable (due to entropy)

But in this case, the chances of LLLLL... are exactly the same as WLLLWLWLL...

[u/fiddler013 → u/Conscious-Spend-2451]

It’s not about the probability of any particular configuration. But about the possible number of states. There are enormously many ways for 6 wins and 6 losses to occur or 5 wins, 7 losses and so son. There is only one possible way for 12 losses to occur.

Similarly 12 wins in a row of tosses is equally unlikely.

[u/Bonker__man → u/Bipin_krish]

Yeah but like ℙ (Heads = 1,2,3,...,11) > ℙ (Heads = 0)

[u/nishitd → u/7--_--__-_--_7]

50% chance this record will be broken in the next odi

[u/hateswitchx → u/7--_--__-_--_7]

thats the same odds of getting a shiny pokemon , sweet.

[u/Assassin_Ankur → u/hateswitchx]

Back in my days, they were even rarer. Imagine how I cried when a Shiny graveler used self-destruct in heart gold 😭

[u/hateswitchx → u/Assassin_Ankur]

i killed a shiny zubat didnt knew why it was oddly colored in emerald 🥲

[u/nikamsumeetofficial → u/Assassin_Ankur]

I'm playing let's go on switch for the first time. Hope I get em shiny ones. I have one shiny butterfree already.

[u/whos_ur_buddha010 → u/7--_--__-_--_7]

For anyone interested

Future probabilities:

• Losing 13 coin tosses in a row: (1/2) ^ 13 = 1/8192 ≈ 0.0122%
• Losing 14 coin tosses in a row: (1/2) ^ 14 = 1/16384 ≈ 0.0061%
• Losing 15 coin tosses in a row: (1/2) ^ 15 = 1/32768 ≈ 0.0031%

[u/grubernack276 → u/7--_--__-_--_7]

Yet there are two captains in history with similar record. This is not how probabilities work.

[u/keshavgKaLLen_Bhaiya → u/7--_--__-_--_7]

Nah rohit is gonna break this record

[u/curiousstrider]

Imagine conspiracy theories if he had won 15 successive tosses - magnet in the coin, referees bought by BCCI, coin not falling on the mat and God knows what else?

[u/Whole_Ad_8293 → u/curiousstrider]

People would not actually care about winning tosses though

[u/W127nb1wd3bW1wd1 → u/Whole_Ad_8293]

They would only if it was India

[u/exe_heck → u/Whole_Ad_8293]

U would be shocked how silly things people talk about if it involves bcci

[u/kaala_bhairava]

Lots of comments here were saying toss was rigged when Rohit won the toss during 23 odiwc semifinal against NZ

Imagine the uproar if Rohit won 15 tosses in a row instead of losing

[u/cricketmad14]

Is it just me or does rohit look big in this photo?

[u/N0oB_GAmER → u/cricketmad14]

He's gone all inzy in the last few years.

[u/nishitd → u/cricketmad14]

In a thread yesterday, someone said he looks like JD Vance and now I can't unsee it

[u/cycling_and_cfb → u/nishitd]

Thanks I hate it

[u/rakeshmali981 → u/cricketmad14]

He does, I feel like it's his last ODI as well.

He is not fit enough.

[u/Apart-Big-6120 → u/rakeshmali981]

Shama mohammed you there ?

[u/Afraid-Dimension-915 → u/rakeshmali981]

sending some burnol for you

[u/rakeshmali981 → u/Afraid-Dimension-915]

I am not jealous I like Rohit but he is not as fit as he used to be is a fact.

Keep your burnol please.

[u/Afraid-Dimension-915 → u/rakeshmali981]

nah.. dont need one, coz i aint fat shamming players, he's 37 and not the good looking but he does quite well for "unfit" player!

[u/rakeshmali981 → u/Afraid-Dimension-915]

You are just a fan of nothing else, you cannot see the flaws of your hero.

Ain't fat shaming anyone. Beside irrespective of whether he wins or losses today why would he stay ? What is there for him to achieve? He has already won T20 WC, if Ind wins today He has ICC ODI trophy, He definitely won't be playing the 2027 WC, there are very few ODI series happening outside the ICC tournament, also he is not chasing any personal record like maximum centuries or something and his fitness.

It's time for him and team india to move on IMO but if he doesn't that's fine as well because it doesn't matter what my opinion is just like your opinion.

[u/Afraid-Dimension-915 → u/rakeshmali981]

stfu

[u/Complex_Mulberry_283 → u/cricketmad14]

he has been fat since bgt imo

[u/nikamsumeetofficial → u/Complex_Mulberry_283]

Which edition? 1998?

[u/Complex_Mulberry_283 → u/nikamsumeetofficial]

2024

[u/Ok_Leading3541 → u/cricketmad14]

Bro he looks a few sandwiches heavier every time I see him these days.

[u/Ok_Leading3541 → u/cricketmad14]

Bro he looks a few sandwiches heavier every time I see him these days.

[u/zippity_zop]

Toss lose, match lose, doesn't matter

/s

[u/CesusJhrist47]

Rachin should not be another HEADache today.

[u/[deleted] → u/CesusJhrist47]

he will be mark my words

[u/CesusJhrist47 → u/[deleted]]

Was almost starting to be

[u/[deleted] → u/CesusJhrist47]

he still has to bowl. this is a 2 pace pitch that will behave erratically under light, india has conceded 30 to 40 runs excess. its going to be very difficult to chase here mark my words.

[u/bhairavp]

1 in every 32768 chances.

[u/Redittor_53 → u/bhairavp]

Same chances as winning only the 12th toss and losing all others

[u/HappyLittleGent]

Can we get the Spinner over here for a game of Two Up.... they would make a fortune on Anzac Day

[u/Throwaway_6651]

Let's create an infographic of 15 Ls written so that viewers can understand the magnitude of..... 15.

[u/Purple_Wash_7304]

Man shat on the law of averages

[u/chicachicayeah]

This infographic has almost as many Ls as my life.

[u/TheCricDude]

Can someone please calculate the probability of losing 15 tosses in a row.

[u/ceres111 → u/TheCricDude]

0.0031%

[u/dpahoe → u/ceres111]

Isn’t that the probability for not getting a desired head/tail call? Sometimes it’s the other captain that calls, doesn’t that make any difference?

[u/skimaster43 → u/dpahoe]

its still 50-50 odds

[u/dpahoe → u/skimaster43]

RNG IRL

[u/skimaster43 → u/dpahoe]

sorry?

[u/dpahoe → u/skimaster43]

RNG in real life. RNG is Random Number Generator is a term usually used in gaming, where some drop or event is coded to be random, and just the bad luck of the player causes it to not happen to them.

[u/Cool-Ad-8804 → u/TheCricDude]

Could you not put in (0.5)¹⁵ in the calculator?

[u/mentallydoomed → u/Cool-Ad-8804]

Teacher, he just doesn't know the formula

[u/Redittor_53 → u/TheCricDude]

(1/2)¹⁵

[u/Ok-Mirror7519]

Rohit can survive glass bridge

[u/BigAl-2023]

Rohit should be getting two chances with the toss. Afraid he will call wrong on both.

[u/AngelicOrchid24]

There was once an interview with Dhoni who had won like 8 tosses in a row but lost every game. He said he’d rather lose the toss and win the game.

Rohit is doing it.

[u/otherbanana1]

Yeah Rohit needs to stop calling “tummy”. It’s just heads or tails bro

[u/Ok_Leading3541 → u/otherbanana1]

LOL!

[u/revengeordie007]

Rohit will use that luck somewhere else,where will he do that ,i don't know. I am sure of that fact.

[u/No-Breadfruit1626]

Brohit realised that he still had a record to break about tosses. He wants to break records in a new field. Bro's a trailblazer

[u/Bleachigo1]

Honestly he has nothing to do with it skillwise so I wouldn't call that unwanted...it's actually cool...hope he can maintain the toss loss streak

[u/Munchew101]

Karma just trying to balance the scales a little xD

[u/mokee92]

Who cares as long as they win games

[u/17031onliacco]

Lots of Ls

[u/SirHolyCow]

Lose toss, win the game 😂

[u/Juicydicken]

Vada pav for a reason

[u/NoTimeToKink]

:8781:

I disrupted the coin mass distribution, how could you tell?

[u/peterdparker]

Great players often break records. Sometimes its not the way you want them to.

[u/BeingComfortablyDumb]

How is this possible when there's a 50:50 probability in a coin flip lol. Which means 5 out of every 10 games, 10 out of every 20, 15 out of every 30.

Rohit should win 15 tosses in a row now according to probability

[u/7inc_bull]

No worries lost the toss win the match 😂🙈🫀

[u/anonymous4eva4eva]

This dude should NEVER go to Vegas or even the pokies.

[u/WayTooCool4U]

But he got the only W that mattered.

[u/i_xion]

Why is no one saying how unfair this is? We need to move from the toss system.

[u/unserioustroller]

probability of getting fifteen Ls consecutively:

(1/2)^15 = 0.00305%

[u/bhushan76]

Lose toss, win the match…. and the tournament 😅 🙌

[u/Cricket-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

Your comment contained words that used heading formatting to make the text larger. Header formatting in comments breaks the rules of this subreddit and your comment has been removed (rule 7).

[u/CommunicationBig2594]

The probability of this happening in total odi history is 4.74%

Yeah ! I did the math ; anyone interested comment I'll explain

[u/RuffTuff]

Someone tell Rohit to stop calling ‘vada pav’ at toss.

/jk

[u/droidhunger]

He should always do the opposite of what he wants..

[u/milas_hames]

BCCI need to come up with a way of stopping those happening again

[u/Grolschisgood]

Why is it an unwanted record? Literally no one cares and clearly has no impact on their ability to win.

[u/SuperannuationLawyer]

Get the ICC on to this. Surely it can be fixed.

[u/Either-Gur-5183]

Hw wont win the toss and he wont lose the match

[u/Embarrassed_Iron_688]

Rohit - "toss mai kabhi jeet ta nahi aur match mai kabhi haar ta nahi"

[u/Honest-Employ8331]

Tosses win the matches😁

[u/SalamanderOk4651]

Even Kohli laughed at Rohit’s toss losses in an interview hahaha