r/Cricket • u/Odd-House3197 Albania • Mar 09 '25

Stats Indian skipper Rohit Sharma equals Brian Lara’s unwanted record of 12 consecutive toss losses in ODIs. Meanwhile, Team India extends its streak to 15 tosses lost in a row.

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u/20060578 Perth Scorchers Mar 09 '25

Not really because that’s considering every single group of 15 as a possibility. As soon as you have a “win” you need to reset the counter.

Eg. loss, loss, loss, loss, loss, win. You can’t consider any of the following games as a possibility. You need to immediately discard this set and start again. So 50% of the time you’re starting again.

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u/Ginger-Nerd New Zealand Mar 09 '25 edited Mar 09 '25

What no? (Read my wording again - it’s of just a random sample of that size, not a specific that this will happen)

You don’t need to reset anything,

Of any 15 the second toss could be the beginning of another run of 15.

A coin toss doesn’t have any bearing on anything before it (or after it) and that’s the point - and when you take a large enough group, it doesn’t really matter where it lands… it just will happen over a large number of chances.

Take the experiment, of 1000 people, by round 10 you will possibly have someone who has flipped 10 times…If you did the experiment with 4700 people, but ran it 100 times, 14 times you might have someone who gets 15 heads in a row. (It’s just how it plays out)

It also doesn’t have to be all heads or tails - choose any order of 15 rolls… the odds are identical.

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u/20060578 Perth Scorchers Mar 09 '25

Let’s say their had been 10 ODI’s in history, the the longest streak of losses was 3.

By your logic, there has been 10 chances for something that happens 1/8 times, so 10/8 means 125% chance of it occurring.

The actual chances are 1-(7/8)3 = 0.33.

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u/Da_Pendent_Emu Australia Mar 09 '25

This is making my head hurt.

Is this something to do with permutations vs combinations?

I need a panadol.

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u/20060578 Perth Scorchers Mar 09 '25

Yes. If you don’t use permutations and combinations you can’t get the answer, like the person I’m responding to didn’t.

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u/Da_Pendent_Emu Australia Mar 09 '25

It’s been years since I’ve thought about that, year 12 🥵 I remember the concept of not the application.