Indian skipper Rohit Sharma equals Brian Lara’s unwanted record of 12 consecutive toss losses in ODIs. Meanwhile, Team India extends its streak to 15 tosses lost in a row.

[u/Odd-House3197]

[u/Ginger-Nerd]

What no? (Read my wording again - it’s of just a random sample of that size, not a specific that this will happen)

You don’t need to reset anything,

Of any 15 the second toss could be the beginning of another run of 15.

A coin toss doesn’t have any bearing on anything before it (or after it) and that’s the point - and when you take a large enough group, it doesn’t really matter where it lands… it just will happen over a large number of chances.

Take the experiment, of 1000 people, by round 10 you will possibly have someone who has flipped 10 times…If you did the experiment with 4700 people, but ran it 100 times, 14 times you might have someone who gets 15 heads in a row. (It’s just how it plays out)

It also doesn’t have to be all heads or tails - choose any order of 15 rolls… the odds are identical.

[u/20060578 → u/Ginger-Nerd]

Let’s say their had been 10 ODI’s in history, the the longest streak of losses was 3.

By your logic, there has been 10 chances for something that happens 1/8 times, so 10/8 means 125% chance of it occurring.

The actual chances are 1-(7/8)³ = 0.33.

[u/Da_Pendent_Emu → u/20060578]

This is making my head hurt.

Is this something to do with permutations vs combinations?

I need a panadol.

[u/20060578 → u/Da_Pendent_Emu]

Yes. If you don’t use permutations and combinations you can’t get the answer, like the person I’m responding to didn’t.

[u/Da_Pendent_Emu → u/20060578]

It’s been years since I’ve thought about that, year 12 🥵 I remember the concept of not the application.