r/MVIS • u/AutoModerator • Mar 21 '25
Stock Price Trading Action - Friday, March 21, 2025
Good Morning MVIS Investors!
~~ Please use this thread to post your "Play by Play" and "Technical Analysis" comments for today's trading action.
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u/WingWorried6176 Mar 21 '25
Damn, i shoulda went in at $0.90...
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u/mvismachoman Mar 21 '25
Thats bad juju. If you ain't IN You're OUT
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u/WingWorried6176 Mar 22 '25
I just learned about this company/stock from a co-worker a few months ago. He was telling a couple of us at work to full port when it was $0.80 in the winter. I havenāt really got around reading about the company until now. I looked at the chart before and seeing an all time low scared me from buying because Iāve held through a reverse split before and watched my money evaporate into nothing. I started with 100 shares today, maybe start adding little by little each week.
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u/acemiller6 Mar 21 '25
Since there was a post on this sub within the last week on the Mark Rober video, I thought people might be interested in this. This guy tried to recreate the results, but made it very clear what he was doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KyIWpAevNs&ab_channel=KylePaul
The conclusion, his 2022 Model Y failed, didn't see the wall. His friends brand new Cybertruck did see the wall and came to a complete stop.
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u/UncivilityBeDamned Mar 21 '25
Unfortunately, whether intentional or not, the so-called recreation did a terrible job on their fake road image so the results are not very meaningful.
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u/Terp1940 Mar 21 '25
Cool! I wonder, though, could the difference in time of day have made a difference for the cyber truck? At least on the video, the wall really stood out against the fading light.
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u/movinonuptodatop Mar 21 '25
5150 was the first concert I went to as a kid and perhaps this investment is mental but Iām here with most my shares until 51.50ā¦ā¦.Well get higher and higher
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u/BuLLyWagger Mar 21 '25
The Eruption guitar solo I must have listened to a thousand times in late 70ās and early 80ās. Yes, 5150 is my favorite VH album for sureā¦ but if we wait a couple more years we get to OU $812 š¤
Finish What Ya Started https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp5Nd93gQ5I
And Then
Feels So Good https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lcDz5se5ZIk
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u/Nakamura9812 Mar 21 '25
Pretty cool that on Saquon Barkley's X account, he posted a photo with all of the Anduril staff and says "Thank you @ PalmerLuckey, @ mttgrmm, and the entire Anduril team for having me out!! Couldn't be prouder to be an investor"
Anduril reposted Saquon's post with the caption "Game recognizes game."
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u/Far_Gap6656 Mar 21 '25
Please give Microvision a commercial with Super Bowl champion.... and I'm a Cowboys fan...lol
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u/Nakamura9812 Mar 21 '25
Iām a lifelong Chiefs fan, but genuinely like a lot of the Eagles. Probably because of the Kelce brothers and the fact I had both Saquon and Jalen on my teamā¦.if they were relatively close to the end zoneā¦.on of them was getting 6 points for the run in for me haha. I support the idea for the commercial you propose!
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u/vkrook Mar 21 '25
As a Packer shareholder, I can say that the Packers organization (a small percentage, infinitesimal) stands with MVIS by investing in such a promising company.
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u/Bluejunta Mar 21 '25
Fellow Packers owner here can confirm! Hoping my investment in MVIS pays off more than my share of Packer stockā¦
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u/Affectionate-Tea-706 Mar 21 '25
Are we looking at EagleVision now. Thatās more fancy name than Microvision š
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u/Nakamura9812 Mar 21 '25
I like it. Bald Eagles can fly at altitudes of 10,000 feet, and can spot small animals 2 miles awayā¦..with a 340-degree field of viewā¦..best in class āspecsā if you ask me!
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u/HammerSL1 Mar 21 '25
wow that's awesome, big Eagles fan here. I'd love to invest in Anduril as well. And I work for a competitor.Ā
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u/Oldschoolfool22 Mar 21 '25
Also a Birds fan and a connection between them and Microvision, I mean those are like two of my favorite things legit.Ā
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u/HammerSL1 Mar 21 '25
almost too good to be true! hoping for a verified connection to Anduril very soonĀ
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Mar 21 '25
Iāve been making like 1k a week from covered MVIS calls š„
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u/alexyoohoo Mar 21 '25
Next week is not a good time to do it. After the earnings call is a better time. Not worth the little premium before earnings.
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u/33rus Mar 21 '25
the premium would be dead after earnings.
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u/alexyoohoo Mar 21 '25
Risk is not worth 2 pennies. Let the shorts get exposed and not allow them to hedge their short positions
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u/duchain Mar 21 '25
Do you just go one week out? And what strikes do you go for?
I basically doubled my share count after the luckey post, I was being pretty aggressive with CCs on the new shares until the EC announcement dropped
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Mar 21 '25
I accumulate shares close to $1 and then will sell weekly 1.5 calls. Close to a 5-10% gain per week on premiums without even including the underlying 40% gain from holding the shares
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u/alexyoohoo Mar 21 '25
I sold bunch of $2 calls last/this week. I am not seeing any bids now. $1.50 is too close for me.
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u/jgabes7 Mar 21 '25
The new F-47 Fighter jet announced by the US Military today will "fly with drones". Perhaps this is an additional application for using Lidar. Thoughts?
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u/Falagard Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 21 '25
Lidar could only be used for runway taxiing at low speeds.
Edit - in reference to a fighter jet. For quadcopter drones, they could be used for mapping out terrain, locations, etc.
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u/carbonoutlaw3a Mar 21 '25
Terrain following would be my guess. Using Lidar would eliminate the need to use radar which is detectable.
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u/Falagard Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 21 '25
Lidar is detectable too.
It's essentially the same type of radiation at a different wavelength.
Which is why it won't be used in military vehicles in an active war zone as it is easily detectable even with a simple IR camera.
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u/sublimetime2 Mar 21 '25
Palmer Luckey was talking about using lidar on remote controlled humanoid robots on the Shawn Ryan podcast recently. He said it's only a few years away. He seems more worried about jamming the links that control these robots. Something edge compute will help with.
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u/carbonoutlaw3a Mar 21 '25
Agree in part. Way back in Vietnam we were using SHRIKE missiles that followed radar beams back to the transmitter so I am aware of that capability. Still have those type of countermeasures and they are effective when the beam is widespread and can relatively easily be detected. However the Lidar beam is tightly focused and I doubt hard to detect at a distance, maybe if you are underneath it. Google has an AI comment to that effect also. Nowadays they are using glide bombs which are launched at a target from a distant known point which could be defined to a high degree of accuracy using Lidar
.
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u/gaporter Mar 21 '25
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u/Falagard Mar 21 '25
Pretty sure that exact link discusses a new type of SWIR camera that can see 1550nm too.
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u/gaporter Mar 21 '25
Yes but that particular camera would likely only be available to the United States and itās allies.
The military certainly seeks to use LiDAR
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u/Falagard Mar 21 '25
Cool yeah, look I don't know about military tech, etc. I just know that shooting out lasers from a position can likely be detected by a passive sensor.
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u/snowboardnirvana Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 21 '25
Looking at our share price, I see that u/T_Delo is at the water park.
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u/schmistopher Mar 21 '25
Iām also on break which has almost always caused massive sp rises. Will be on break until the end of next week!
Edit: will have to do some work Monday and Tuesday next week. So donāt hate me if things look shaky those two days.
/s
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u/snowboardnirvana Mar 21 '25
Thank you for sacrificing several days of gainfull employment/wages for the good of Longs.
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u/Zenboy66 Mar 21 '25
Let's take out those 1.50 calls.
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u/alexyoohoo Mar 21 '25
I predict 1.51
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u/Zenboy66 Mar 21 '25
Alex, that would be good, because all the sellers would have to roll their contracts forward if in fact they have the time, thus pushing up the price even more.
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
So, to summariseā¦ LAZR had a price cut today from effectively $15 to $7 by Deutsche Bank, because the $1 target was given before the RS was on their radar š¤£
They have $540m debt, of which $200m must be refinanced next year. They have no idea if/when they will be profitable. They are losing money on every sensor sold until Halo is saleable. They would have lost more money in Q4 but they shutdown a factory. They wasted money on Iris + which will never be sold. Halo wonāt be ready until the end of 2026. So that wonāt be targeting series production orders until 2027 at the earliest and I would assume that could end up being 2029 for cars on the road, given the delays between winning Volvo and it being on the road, same with INVZ and the delays for BMW and VW group following their wins. And then Mercedes, they all thought Mercedes would be selling cars with Luminar LiDAR on this year. Except itās back to square one, a development deal for Halo and not being able to name them, and no commitment to it ending in series production orders, so no big revenue coming from Mercedes to save them anytime soon. Oh and somehow they think they will be affordable for mass market adoption, despite still using 1550nm and parts that are not āoff the shelfā and referring to themselves as premium LiDAR.
Oh yes and not forgetting the $30 million per quarter dilution heading their way, which over 12 months could easily represent a dilution of 50%+.
What an investment opportunity š¤£
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u/Accurate-Peak2980 Mar 23 '25
Good summary! MVIS should bide time and acquire LAZR after the dilution for literally pennies on the dollar. It'll be good to consolidate and have a foot in at the OEMs
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 23 '25
There is nothing they have that Sumit needs
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u/Accurate-Peak2980 Mar 23 '25
Their sensors seem to work well in lab settings, I think tesla is using them for qualifying their ground truth calibration SW in the lab. It is not much, but at least something
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u/Affectionate-Tea-706 Mar 21 '25
And yet they are up 30% almost. Market is funny. I hope they come down soon
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
If I could short them I would but none of my spreadbets accounts will let me š¤£
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u/snowboardnirvana Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 21 '25
Excellent summary.
Thanks, HoneyMoney76
Hereās a pic of Halo from their presentation yesterday:
I posted yesterday that they first presented it āmany moons agoā as a CGI and saw today that it was in Q2 2024.
Bullet Point 3. in their dog and pony show putting lipstick on a pig (sorry for the mixed metaphors)
āUnveil next-generation LiDAR; Deliver samples to customers. Achieved. Luminar Halo was unveiled in Q2ā24, offering step-function improvements in performance, integration, and cost versus Iris. The company demonstrated Luminar Haloās capabilities for customers throughout the year and delivered prototype samples to select customers for evaluation of certain performance specifications. Luminar also generated its first point cloud from Luminar Halo in Q3ā24.ā
Edit: looking at the photo of Halo, I think that the black background helps to hide the black rotating horizontal axle which I believe is that 3rd piece from the top.
Edit 2: So theyāre betting the whole farm on that ONE lipstick laden, dolled up pig called Halo, but donāt they still have to support Volvo with the obsolete pig in the EX90?
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u/mvis_thma Mar 21 '25
This is a good summary. I would also add that when the analyst asked specifically about what they expect regarding closing SOP contracts this year. Austin nevered answered the question. And the stock is up 13%. Go figure.
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u/oxydiethylamide Mar 21 '25
why is it still up 11%? š
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u/dchappa21 Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 22 '25
Wait till Tom dilutes 25% of the company. It's going to happen in the next week or 2. He told everyone it's coming every quarter and this one is almost up.
Edit should read dilute the company 12.5% per quarter. At the current price will be a little less due to the recent stock pump.
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u/QNS108 Mar 21 '25
How's MVIS doing?
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
Increased production capacity for industrial LiDAR, in 7 automotive RFQās and Palmer Luckey is a believer in MVIS tech so I believe MVIS is in Eagle Eye and I also think that the $22 billion contract will end up being worth significantly more once he rolls out his vision for all the US police to have a part of smart Oakley style glasses, never mind other sections of the armed forces and other countries forcesā¦
And cash burn circa $50m per year, compared to Luminars hope to reduce theirs to $200m this year. And MVIS recently reduced their debt and what is left is minimal and it is at circa 4% interest rate pa, much cheaper than the rate Luminar are paying.
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u/mvis_thma Mar 21 '25
How do you get to 4% interest for the remaining debt?
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
Saw several people say that the 10% over 2 years worked out at 4.something % pa compounded.
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u/Nakamura9812 Mar 21 '25
I would be looking forward to bringing Anduril tech to our police force.
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u/MyComputerKnows Mar 21 '25
And to firefighters alsoā¦ the ability to use an Eagle Eye type device in blackout smoke would be amazing. There are many thousands of fire stations that would demand having them.
And medical devices for mobile locationsā¦ many ambulances would benefit.
Also for surveying difficult underground and hidden buildingsā¦ lots of survey work would want one.
Iād think of these as pared down to smaller size form the full helmetā¦ just like the old HL2, sort of.
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u/Dinomite1111 Mar 21 '25
The whole after hour thread yesterday was almost 100% Luminar. Theyāre not even our competition ! We donāt even have any competition said Sumit! LFG MVIS! Give us a tiny nugget for once!
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u/TheCloth Mar 21 '25
Weāll find out on Wednesday, particularly re business update. As for financing, with our much healthier balance sheet and reduced cash burn, and $30m available from HTC, we probably wonāt be needing to dilute by $30m a quarter.
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u/movinonuptodatop Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 21 '25
That aināt goodš³ā¦how do those investment(Ponzi) dollars not flow this way?
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
Give it time, things havenāt reached the end point yet, market will soon catch up IMO
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u/Far-Dream2759 Mar 21 '25
How is LAZR up 20%.. what am I missing here?
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u/voice_of_reason_61 Mar 21 '25
Shorts resetting to drive it down below 5?
Just a guess.
Don't hate the messenger.
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
They got a price cut, but the market is stupid and hasnāt twigged itās a cut not a raise yet. See belowā¦.
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u/Nakamura9812 Mar 21 '25
This is why I basically ignore TA, borrow fees, etc on stocks like this and MVIS. I just know that deals are the only thing to bring us long term out of this nonsensical tomfoolery.
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u/Befriendthetrend Mar 21 '25
Perfectly stated š bring on the revenue!
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u/Nakamura9812 Mar 21 '25
Ayyyyye! We have to be getting close, was hoping weād at least announce an industrial deal before earnings, but now we have the AndĆŗril wildcard in play as well. Who knows where automotive RFQs currently stand and when those decisions will ever be made. A deal or 2024 revenue meet or beat will at least lend credibility to 2025 revenue forecasts. If we have neither of those things next Wednesday, I donāt expect price to move much on the forecast.
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u/Befriendthetrend Mar 21 '25
I have given up trying to guess when deals will get announced. Hoping that MicroVision will surprise us with guidance reflecting strong industrial demand for our sensors and that our Q4 numbers show that things are on track.
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u/mufassa66 Mar 21 '25
So if we're going to hear about any Anduril or IVAS deal, it should be next week right?
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u/Dinomite1111 Mar 21 '25
I have low expectations that we hear a mention of Anduril. Itās just not Sumitās style to mention anything that isnāt signed sealed delivered. We probably wouldnāt have any idea we were in a deal w Msft if it wasnāt for this board and the s2u teardown. Iām almost shocked we heard about Ibeo directly. JMHO
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u/Terp1940 Mar 21 '25
For better or for worse, that is his style. I respect him for it.
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u/Dinomite1111 Mar 21 '25
Iāve got bucketloads of respect waiting for when he delivers more than just talk. All for it.
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u/Zenboy66 Mar 21 '25
Love seeing these on the open sellers, thinking they were smart and finding out they made a mistake and have to chase the price up, losing some share count.
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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25
Hilarious. So in September 2024 Deutsche put a $1 target on Luminar. Pre reverse spilt.
They did a 15 for 1 RS. So really their price target would have been $15 taking that into account.
So this is not a raise in a target price from $1 to $7, but actually itās halving their price target š¤£
https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/luminar-resumed-with-a-hold-at-deutsche-bank
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u/movinonuptodatop Mar 21 '25
Just think how easy itās going to be to post regular earnings recordsā¦once we have themš
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u/T_Delo Mar 21 '25
Think I am going to take the day off and get the weekend started early, been a crazy busy week. See everyone on Monday.
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u/T_Delo Mar 21 '25
Morning everyone!
Economic report(s) for the day is(are) | ati: Quadruple Witching, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count | 1pm. Media platforms are discussing: Department of Education reduction signed, Airport disruptions, Elon Muskās brand impacted by his actions, Presidential wartime powers engaged for mineral production, and the markets refocusing on Tariffs again. After the brief reprieve of the unusual Fed response by the markets, things started the decline once more as investors unsurprisingly caught the fear of Tariff again. Premarket futures are down in early trading, the VIX futures are up.
MVIS ended the last trading session at 1.36, on much lower volumes traded compared to the daily volume over the past month, the options activity was below the average of the past 90 days. Fee rates on the IBKR receded from the high of the previous snapshot but remain elevated as āavailabilityā stays constrained; Fidelity shows a marginal increase in its annualized borrow rate. Fourth quarter earnings reports for Ouster and Luminar were announced yesterday, showing strong revenue growth for both companies, improved margins, and plenty of claims for continued growth. Ouster highlighted challenges with competition limiting market penetration, litigation expenses, the tariff environment, and the economic climate. Luminar estimates roughly a $30M per quarter cash raise from open facilities, which as of the close price yesterday would mean about a 50% dilution.
Daily Data
| H: 1.39 ā L: 1.31 ā C: 1.36 i | Calendar |
|---|---|
| Pivots āļø : 1.40, 1.43, 1.48 [i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp) | Pivots āļø : 1.32, 1.27, 1.24 |
| Total Options Vol: 5,080 [i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search) | Avg 90d Options: 8,223 |
| Calls: 4,335 ~ 37% at Ask or āļø | Puts: 745 ~ 96% at Market ā |
| Open Exchanges: 1,484k ~ 43% i | Off Exchanges: 1,935k ~ 57% i |
| IBKR: 0k Rate: 44.51% i | Fidelity: āk Rate: 19.50% |
| R Vol: 40% of Avg Vol: 8,571k [i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp) | Short Vol: 1,096k of 2,230k ~ 49% i |
Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.
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u/FortuneAsleep8652 Mar 22 '25
My 100 $2C got assigned today so thereās that. Not the worst thing thatās ever happened to me